{"id":228452,"date":"2026-10-23T14:32:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T14:32:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/in-reliably-blue-minnesota-could-democrats-do-the-unthinkable-and-lose-a-senate-seat-the-guardian\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T14:32:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T14:32:07","slug":"in-reliably-blue-minnesota-could-democrats-do-the-unthinkable-and-lose-a-senate-seat-the-guardian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/in-reliably-blue-minnesota-could-democrats-do-the-unthinkable-and-lose-a-senate-seat-the-guardian\/","title":{"rendered":"In reliably blue Minnesota, could Democrats do the unthinkable and lose a Senate seat? – The Guardian"},"content":{"rendered":"

Frustration with a sprawling fraud scandal has cut Peggy Flanagan\u2019s poll lead \u2013 could ex-NFL reporter Michele Tafoya win a first statewide election for Republicans in 20 years?
Our reporters answer your questions about ICE, immigration and the midterms<\/a>
A<\/span>s Democrats fight to regain control of the US Senate, hopes are rising in states \u2013 from Kansas<\/a> to Texas<\/a> \u2013 where they have not prevailed in decades. But in Minnesota, where Republicans have not won statewide election since 2006, the contest for an open Senate seat is closer than expected.
Should Peggy Flanagan \u2013 the state\u2019s Democratic lieutenant governor \u2013 win the election, she will be the first Native American woman to serve in the US Senate. But history has not yet been made. The closely watched Cook Political Report shifted its rating<\/a> on the race this week from \u201clikely Democrat\u201d to \u201clean Democrat\u201d.
Flanagan has made hundreds of stops throughout Minnesota<\/a> this year, first in a contested primary where she beat out a more moderate congresswoman, and now as she faces Republican challenger Michele Tafoya.
Tafoya, a more pragmatic choice for Minnesota Republicans<\/a> than in previous US Senate elections, has sought to cast herself as a pro-choice Republican, though she has not spelled out what her stance is on access to abortion. She has also broken rank with the Trump administration on the Iran war after previously supporting it.
Unlike some Republicans who have sought Trump\u2019s support, Tafoya didn\u2019t rush to embrace the president\u2019s recent endorsement. \u201cI heard about that,\u201d she said.
Most polls have shown Flanagan ahead \u2013 but not with a large lead, and lagging behind those built by Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic US senator now running for governor, in polls against her challenger, Minnesota house speaker Lisa Demuth. The most recent poll<\/a> by the Minnesota Star Tribune earlier this month showed Flanagan up four points.
Flanagan\u2019s central liability comes from her current job. As the lieutenant governor in Tim Walz\u2019s administration, she is tied into a sprawling fraud problem in the state\u2019s social services. Without an incumbent on the ballot for governor or US Senate<\/a>, some voters may take out their frustration on Flanagan.
Walz decided not to<\/a> seek a third term as governor, after initially saying he would, because of the fraud issue and the political response to it.
Republicans have not won a statewide race in Minnesota in 20 years. \u201cThere is a path. It\u2019s not a wide path, but there is a path for Republicans,\u201d said Blois Olson, an independent political analyst in Minnesota.
While Minnesota Democrats<\/a> have dominated statewide races the past two decades, the state is not deeply blue: the state legislature is now split, with the house tied and Democrats controlling the senate. Some see Flanagan, a progressive who supports the proposed Medicare for All model of universal healthcare, as farther left than the statewide electorate.
\u201cIt sets up a race where Republicans are as optimistic as anything,\u201d Olson said. \u201cBut until Republicans win statewide, you can\u2019t think they\u2019re going to win. It\u2019s kind of like Democrats in Texas.\u201d
Trump\u2019s approval rating among Minnesotans is at a personal low<\/a>. His surge of immigration agents into the state sits heavy on the minds of many, and features in campaign ads against Republicans. Two US citizens \u2013 Renee Good and Alex Pretti \u2013 were killed by federal agents in Minneapolis during Operation Metro Surge earlier this year.
Trump has continued to attack the state and its leaders, often rails against the state\u2019s Somali population. In the only debate for Minnesota\u2019s US Senate seat ahead of the general election, Tafoya wouldn\u2019t say whether she would attend if Trump staged a rally in the state.
National Republicans have so far not swooped in to boost Tafoya \u2013 a signal that the race is not a top priority, or that their money is more needed to defend their seats in unexpected places, including Kansas<\/a>.
Flanagan, at a union press conference earlier this month, said she always runs for office as though she\u2019s 10 points behind, including when she ran unopposed for the state legislature, when she still knocked doors most nights. In the primary, she noted, polls showed a close race between her and Craig, but Flanagan won by nearly 20 percentage points.
\u201cI\u2019ve always been underestimated, and that\u2019s OK. That just means I work a little bit harder,\u201d she said. \u201cAnd frankly, there are more people in the state of Minnesota who understand that they are being squeezed, and when the response to that pain from my opponent is to say that people should take one less trip to Starbucks and keep a stiff upper lip<\/a>, that is a slap in the face to working people all across Minnesota.\u201d
Tafoya did not respond to multiple requests for an interview.
S<\/span>igns for Tafoya dot the yards of the Twin Cities suburbs. Olson, the analyst, said he heard from people who knock on doors to talk to voters that the conversations at people\u2019s doors in swing districts after the primary changed.
\u201cI have somebody to vote for, and it\u2019s not Mike Lindell,\u201d he said, explaining how some Republicans felt about the pillow salesman and election denier who lost the party\u2019s gubernatorial primary. Lindell had been endorsed by Trump.
Voters are getting hit with ads on social media from Flanagan, too, who talks about the competitiveness of the race and offers up her wild rice hotdish recipe to anyone who donates to her campaign.
Tafoya, 61, made her career as a sports broadcaster, and worked for NBC as a sideline reporter covering the NFL. After she left that job, she became a political commentator. She has never run for, or held, elected office.
Flanagan, 47, has, by contrast, spent her career in politics \u2013 first as an organizer and then working her way up in elected offices, from school board to state legislature and then to lieutenant governorship.
Tina Smith, the Democrat who now holds the US Senate seat, decided not to seek re-election this year, saying she wanted to retire and spend time with her grandchildren. Smith endorsed Flanagan in the primary and has campaigned with her.
Tafoya, needing independent and centrist votes to win in a left-leaning state, calls herself a pro-choice conservative. In her prior public comments on abortion, she has said<\/a> she supports bans on abortion after 12 or 15 weeks.
During the debate, hosted by Minnesota Public Radio last week, she could not explain what her position entailed. \u201cReasonable access is reasonable access,\u201d she said.
Republicans in Minnesota need the anti-abortion community\u2019s votes, as well as those of gun rights advocates and diehard Trump supporters, said Michael Brodkorb, a commentator and former deputy chair of the Republican party of Minnesota. Some, including a prominent pastor<\/a>, have said they will not vote for Tafoya because of her approval of abortion to any degree. A write-in candidate is running for the seat in large part<\/a> because she wanted voters to have an anti-abortion option on the ballot.
In her most recent ad, Tafoya says she\u2019ll stand up to Trump if she needs to. \u201cIf she had delivered that message from the beginning, then it would be more credible,\u201d Brodkorb said.
On fraud, Flanagan has said she believes fraud of any kind is unacceptable and supports harsher penalties and an independent inspector general. But, she has said throughout her campaign, Walz has said the buck stops with him on fraud.
One of the central questions for voters lies in someone who isn\u2019t on the ballot: Trump, and whether the state\u2019s next senator would provide a check on presidential power. Flanagan has said Tafoya would be a rubber stamp for the president, citing her opponent\u2019s previous reluctance to publicly differ from Trump\u2019s positions. Tafoya has said she would be an \u201cequal-opportunity pain in the ass to any corrupt career politician\u201d.
\u201cYou have to vote for Michele Tafoya, who is a very respected person,\u201d Trump said when he recently endorsed Tafoya. \u201cIt\u2019s hard to win because they cheat on their elections too, you know, I thought I won Minnesota three times.\u201d
Trump lost Minnesota three times. Minnesota has not voted for a Republican president since 1972.
As soon as Trump endorsed Tafoya, Flanagan put up a campaign ad highlighting the endorsement, his stamp of approval a likely negative for a swath of Minnesota voters.<\/p>\n

source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Frustration with a sprawling fraud scandal has cut Peggy Flanagan\u2019s poll lead \u2013 could ex-NFL reporter Michele Tafoya win a first statewide election for Republicans in 20 years?Our reporters answer your questions about ICE, immigration and the midtermsAs Democrats fight to regain control of the US Senate, hopes are rising in states \u2013 from Kansas […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":228453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-228452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-us","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=228452"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228452\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/228453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=228452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=228452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=228452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}