{"id":228157,"date":"2026-10-20T21:58:02","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T21:58:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/polymarket-odds-today-fed-decision-tesla-spacex-world-series-rg-org\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T21:58:02","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T21:58:02","slug":"polymarket-odds-today-fed-decision-tesla-spacex-world-series-rg-org","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/polymarket-odds-today-fed-decision-tesla-spacex-world-series-rg-org\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket Odds Today: Fed Decision, Tesla-SpaceX, World Series – RG.org"},"content":{"rendered":"

Polymarket traders give the Federal Reserve an 86% chance of holding rates at its Oct. 28 decision, a week after a hot September inflation report briefly pushed hike odds toward 50%. The odds that Tesla and SpaceX announce a merger this year fell from 28% to 16% over the past day, with both companies reporting earnings this week, and the crowd rates the Brewers higher than US sportsbooks do ahead of Friday\u2019s World Series opener.
\u201cNo change\u201d is at 86% (-613) and a 25-basis-point hike at 15% (+567), in a market with $49.9 million traded. A day earlier the split was 88% to 13%.
The Fed meets Oct. 27-28 and announces on Oct. 28. Its range is 3.75% to 4% after a quarter-point hike in September, the first increase in more than three years. The September consumer price index, released Oct. 14, showed headline inflation at 3.7% over 12 months, up from 3.4%, with a 0.6% jump in the month. Most of that came from a 9.1% monthly rise in gasoline. Core inflation was 2.6%.
The print moved markets fast. CME FedWatch odds of an October hike rose from 22% to 35% that day, and Polymarket briefly traded near 50% before settling around 30%. Since then the hike case has faded. As of Monday, CME futures priced about an 80% chance of a hold, and they still expect a hike on Dec. 9. Polymarket has the December hike at 78% (-355). New York Fed President John Williams has said one more hike will be needed this year, but also that there may be \u201cno need for urgency.\u201d
The pick:<\/strong> No change at 86% (-613). The hot number was a gasoline story, not a core story, and the Fed\u2019s own minutes say an extra hike is likely by year-end with the timing open. December is already set up as the hiking meeting. Moving early on one month of fuel prices would undercut that guidance for no clear gain. The hold is closer to a 90% shot than 86%, so the hike at +567 is the side to stay away from.
Make Your Fed Prediction On Polymarket<\/strong><\/a>
These are the largest changes over 24 hours, comparing prices from 12:03 a.m. ET on Monday with prices from 12:04 a.m. ET on Tuesday. The Bitcoin October lines are left out because some of their prices could not be checked, and the Venezuela leader market is left out because its outcome labels conflict with the news.
No report could be found that explains any of these moves. Monday\u2019s Ethereum pick, Yes on a dip to $2,250, went the wrong way overnight, from 68% to 63%.
The Tesla-SpaceX drop comes in a busy week. SpaceX reports third-quarter results Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET, and Tesla follows Wednesday with a Q&A at 5:30 p.m. ET. Tesla filed its proxy on Monday for a Dec. 3 annual meeting, and the ballot has no merger item. Barclays analysts led by Dan Levy wrote last week that a merger could be announced before that meeting. Elon Musk said in July that any combination would have to \u201cbe done with the appropriate process.\u201d The longer dates on the same market sit at 33% for Jan. 31, 36% for Feb. 28 and 54% for June 30, 2027.
The pick:<\/strong> Tesla-SpaceX merger announced by Dec. 31, 2026, Yes at 16% (+525). The ladder now says a January announcement alone (17 points) is as likely as one in the next ten weeks, which include two earnings calls and the run-up to the annual meeting. A missing ballot item says little, since a deal this size would need its own filing and vote anyway. Something near 22% is fair.
Trade The Tesla-SpaceX Merger Market On Polymarket<\/strong><\/a>
Tampa Bay beat Cleveland 7-3 on Monday to win the ALCS in six games and set up a World Series against Milwaukee, the first postseason meeting between the two clubs. The Brewers went 103-59, the best record in the majors, and swept the Dodgers in the NLCS. The Rays went 98-64, the best in the American League, and swept the Yankees before beating the Guardians. Milwaukee has home field and hosts Games 1 and 2 on Friday and Saturday, with all games at 8 p.m. ET.
The crowd is the most bullish on Milwaukee. Polymarket\u2019s -177 is a 64% chance, while the three books, once their margin is stripped out, have the Brewers between 59% and 61%. Polymarket\u2019s Rays line was not in this data pull, but the Brewers\u2019 price leaves about 36% for Tampa Bay. That is four to seven points below where the books sit.
The pick:<\/strong> Rays to win the series at +150, a 40% chance. Milwaukee has the better record and home field, but a 2-1 regular-season edge and five extra wins over 162 games do not make a 64-36 series. Tampa Bay has lost just two games in two playoff rounds. A fair line on the Rays is closer to 42%, and +150 is the best price on the board.
Brazil votes Sunday. Of eight runoff polls released Oct. 17-19, seven had Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro ahead by three points or less and one had Lula ahead by two, yet the market has Bolsonaro at 77%.
\u201cUS announces end of Iranian blockade by Oct. 31\u201d rose from 7% to 11% (+809) over the past day, in a market with $41.5 million traded. Nothing on the ground points that way. The US reimposed its blockade of Iranian shipping in mid-July, no tanker has docked at Kharg Island\u2019s crude terminals since late August, and Iran\u2019s crude exports have gone from almost 1 million barrels a day in July to zero, according to ship-tracking data reported by Bloomberg on Monday. Over the weekend, Donald Trump said the US may \u201csoon finish the job,\u201d Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to topple the regime, and Tehran warned of a stronger response. A lifted blockade inside 11 days needs a deal that nobody is reporting. This one is a pass: 5% is closer to fair, so +809 is not enough.
Think the crowd has one of these wrong? Sign up on Polymarket and make your own prediction<\/strong><\/a>.
Polymarket is not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, and OH.<\/i>
Sergey Demidov
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Polymarket traders give the Federal Reserve an 86% chance of holding rates at its Oct. 28 decision, a week after a hot September inflation report briefly pushed hike odds toward 50%. The odds that Tesla and SpaceX announce a merger this year fell from 28% to 16% over the past day, with both companies reporting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":228158,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-228157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-world","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=228157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228157\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/228158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=228157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=228157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=228157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}