{"id":225758,"date":"2026-09-27T19:26:15","date_gmt":"2026-09-27T19:26:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/better-deal-whats-behind-trumps-rejection-of-irans-truce-offer-al-jazeera\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T19:26:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T19:26:15","slug":"better-deal-whats-behind-trumps-rejection-of-irans-truce-offer-al-jazeera","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/better-deal-whats-behind-trumps-rejection-of-irans-truce-offer-al-jazeera\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Better deal\u2019: What\u2019s behind Trump\u2019s rejection of Iran\u2019s truce offer? – Al Jazeera"},"content":{"rendered":"

Experts say Trump sees economic sanctions as key to extracting more concessions but he risks losing leverage.<\/em>
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Donald Trump has rejected<\/a> Iran\u2019s latest proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as experts say the United States president believes Washington has more to gain by waiting than by accepting Tehran\u2019s terms at this moment.
\u201cI reject their proposal,\u201d Trump told reporters on Saturday, arguing that Iran wants an agreement because it is \u201closing so badly\u201d.
\u201cThey want to make a deal, and I think that\u2019s fine,\u201d Trump said. \u201cI\u2019d like to make a deal too. But that deal would not be acceptable.\u201d
On Sunday, Iranian \u2060\u2060Foreign \u2060\u2060Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had \u2060\u2060seen the initial reaction from \u200c\u200cTrump to its proposal but had yet to receive a response through \u2060\u2060mediators. In the latest diplomatic efforts, Qatar has played a role in mediating talks between Iran and the US on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.
Iran\u2019s seven-day proposal included Washington lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales, releasing an estimated $12bn in frozen Iranian assets and observing a wider regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon and Yemen.
Iran would then reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations with Washington on a final agreement.
The latest proposals are similar to the June memorandum of understanding (MoU) the two countries signed. But the MoU collapsed last month due to differences on the terms of the deal, which resulted in an escalation in attacks, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which essentially remains under Iranian blockade.
According to experts, Trump\u2019s rejection suggested that while both sides continue to publicly leave the door open for diplomacy, they remain far apart over who should make the first concessions.
\u201cTrump\u2019s calculation looks fairly straightforward. He believes the combination of the naval blockade and economic isolation is finally squeezing Iran hard enough that Tehran\u2019s latest proposal is evidence of weakness rather than an offer Washington needs to seize,\u201d Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King\u2019s College London, told Al Jazeera.
His public argument that Iran is \u201closing badly\u201d is important because it suggests he thinks time is improving the US bargaining position, Krieg said.
A key part of Trump\u2019s calculation appears to be a belief that the economic pressure on Iran has not yet run its course.
The Trump administration has escalated economic pressure on Tehran, tightening its naval blockade while imposing sanctions targeting Iranian oil revenues and threatening secondary sanctions against countries doing business with Tehran.
Last week, the US imposed aviation sanctions on Iran, disrupting flights. This came weeks after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an economic pressure campaign<\/a> against Iran, promising to target Tehran\u2019s financial interests across the world.
Richard Weitz, a senior nonresident associate fellow at the NATO Defence College, told Al Jazeera that the White House may believe it can \u201cwait a bit and get better terms\u201d.
There is also concern in Washington about Iran\u2019s proposed sequencing, he said.
Therefore, Weitz said Washington may be calculating that \u201ceconomic pressure over time will induce the Iranian government to make more concessions\u201d.
\u201cThis is what occurred arguably a decade ago, leading to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as the Iranian government decided it [the US] needed to end the economic sanctions in return for making concessions on its nuclear programme,\u201d he added.
It is, therefore, possible that \u201cwe could see the same kind of trade-off in the coming months\u201d.
However, waiting for a deal also carries considerable political risk for the US president, experts said, because his Republican Party could lose November\u2019s midterm elections.
A late August Reuters\/Ipsos poll suggested 63 percent of Americans opposed the US-Israel war on Iran while 31 percent supported it. Rising fuel and transportation costs could also feed into broader cost-of-living concerns before the elections.
The problem for Trump is that time does not only increase pressure on Iran, Krieg said. \u201cThe gamble is that time cuts both ways,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

With the midterms approaching, Trump does not want to appear to lift the blockade, waive oil sanctions and release Iranian assets simply to regain access to a waterway that Iran itself disrupted, Krieg said.
\u201cBut every additional week also means elevated energy prices, continued military exposure and mounting pressure on Gulf partners.\u201d
The essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil and gas flows from the Gulf nations, which depend on energy exports to finance their budgets.
Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera that Iran\u2019s proposal could be viewed as \u201ckind of throwing a bone to Trump\u201d by offering a potential route towards lower oil and gas prices before the vote.
However, Iran may decide \u201cto make Trump pay for declining the proposal and the increased economic pressure the country is under\u201d, he told Al Jazeera.
\u201cThey may decide that this is the time to escalate \u2026 just as the midterms are approaching.\u201d
The Republican Party is not doing well in the polls, and a number of its candidates are \u201cdistancing themselves\u201d from Trump, he noted. Polls indicated that Republicans could lose their slim majorities in the US Congress.
It\u2019s not just the Iranians under severe economic pressure because of the US naval blockade and ongoing sanctions, \u201cit\u2019s also the Trump administration,\u201d Elmasry said.
Trump \u201cwants Tehran to reopen Hormuz without Washington paying the full economic and political price Iran is currently demanding\u201d, Krieg said.
\u201cThe danger is that he is confusing Iranian pain with Iranian willingness to capitulate. Those are not the same thing.\u201d
Iran is undoubtedly under pressure. Krieg said the sanctions and blockade are \u201cbiting\u201d, which is precisely why Tehran needs an agreement.
But additional pressure does not necessarily produce additional concessions.<\/p>\n

Iran could instead increase the costs of the conflict for its adversaries, Krieg said, including through the Strait of Hormuz, regional infrastructure and potentially Bab al-Mandeb, another strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.
In recent weeks, the strategic weight of Bab al-Mandeb has increased dramatically after the Iran-aligned Houthis expanded their control of Yemen\u2019s Red Sea coastline.
This advance in effect has handed the Houthis unrestricted access<\/a> to the narrow waterway, a worrying development for global shipping given the group\u2019s track record of targeting vessels, including Israeli-linked ships, in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
The Houthis have already declared a naval blockade on Saudi ships in the Red Sea, which Riyadh began to use as an alternative shipping route to Hormuz for its oil exports.
\u201cSo this can backfire,\u201d Krieg warned. \u201cTrump thinks Iran\u2019s clock is running faster than America\u2019s. Tehran thinks the opposite: that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, global energy markets and ultimately Trump himself have a lower tolerance for prolonged disruption than Iran has for economic punishment.\u201d
Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, similarly told Al Jazeera that Tehran may now be \u201cless worried about overplaying their hand than they are underplaying their hand\u201d.
According to Harrison, Tehran now sees the risk of escalation as less costly than agreeing to something prematurely or appearing willing to compromise, particularly after Washington\u2019s response to the proposal.
In an interview with Al Jazeera<\/a> that aired on Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country no longer trusts negotiations with Washington after attacks occurred during previous rounds of talks and were followed by sanctions.
\u201cWe have no trust in the American side and do not know on what basis an understanding can be reached with it,\u201d Pezeshkian said.
Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Center for International Policy, said Iran was sending a \u201cdouble message \u2013 diplomacy or defiance\u201d, putting forward a proposal for a rapid end to the conflict while making clear that it was prepared to continue resisting pressure if diplomacy failed.
Trump\u2019s rejections, Mortazavi said, will make Tehran harden its position rather than offering further concessions.
She added that Trump was betting that sustained pressure would eventually force Iran to bend, but warned that Washington may be conflating economic pain with political surrender.
\u201cIran\u2019s economy is under enormous pressure, but Tehran will not necessarily accept demands it considers fundamental red lines,\u201d she said, referring to the nuclear programme that remains one of the main sticking points in the talks.
If Tehran concludes that Washington will reject any compromise short of much broader concessions, Iranian leaders may decide there is little incentive to offer another diplomatic \u201coff-ramp\u201d, Mortazavi said.
Pointing out that the conflict has expanded into new fronts, Mortazavi said that \u201cthe consequences of continued confrontation may not remain confined to Iran itself or to the Strait of Hormuz\u201d.
US-based analyst Harrison noted that Tehran was probably \u201cnot surprised at all\u201d by Trump\u2019s rejection and viewed the offer partly as a way to demonstrate to Iranians and the American public that it remained willing to negotiate.
Experts said Tehran understands the US president wants an exit he can present as a victory.
\u201cIran is betting heavily on time. \u2026 Its strategy is to keep the pressure high enough that he eventually comes back to negotiations while making that exit progressively more expensive,\u201d Krieg said.
\u201cThe Iranian calculation is essentially: Do not give Trump the deal cheaply when he may need it more badly several weeks or months from now.\u201d
Harrison said the Iranian offer was a \u201cshow of goodwill\u201d intended to demonstrate Iran\u2019s willingness to negotiate to both its domestic audience and the American public.
According to Krieg, \u201cprotraction\u201d of the conflict was the \u201cmost likely outcome\u201d.
\u201cBoth sides need a deal, but both currently think waiting will improve the deal they eventually get,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Follow Al Jazeera English:<\/p>\n

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Experts say Trump sees economic sanctions as key to extracting more concessions but he risks losing leverage.SaveShareDonald Trump has rejected Iran\u2019s latest proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as experts say the United States president believes Washington has more to gain by waiting than by accepting Tehran\u2019s terms at this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":225759,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-225758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-us","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=225758"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225758\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/225759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=225758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=225758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=225758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}