In today\u2019s newsletter: \u200bGlobal powers\u200b are focused on oil markets and elections\u200b but those living through conflict in the Middle East feel abandoned<\/p>\n
Good morning. It\u2019s been another week of brinkmanship via Truth Social and ceasefires broken before they\u2019ve been announced.
While US president Donald Trump<\/a> claims an agreement with Iran could happen soon, for those living in the Middle East it does not feel like peace is anywhere near. People have seen more bombs dropped in Lebanon this week; and <\/strong>the death toll continues to rise, national economies falter, and displacement abounds.
For those in the region, it means that having your bag packed, ready to flee by bus, car or even on foot to a safer place \u2013 maybe for a few days, perhaps indefinitely \u2013 has become a fact of life.
Emma Graham<\/strong><\/em>-Harrison<\/strong><\/em> spent over a decade reporting from Kabul, Beijing and Madrid before basing herself in Jerusalem last May as our chief Middle East correspondent. I spoke to her as she waited to board her flight to Zurich, where she\u2019s been nominated for an award for her reporting from Gaza<\/a>. We talked about what it\u2019s like for people living in a region that faces constant instability while the world watches on, and other times looks away. But first, the headlines.
UK politics <\/strong><\/em>| Andy Burnham has signalled he would begin transforming the broken social care system this year if he became prime minister, he has said in an interview with the Guardian<\/a>, accusing Westminster of \u201cflinching away\u201d from tackling difficult policy problems.
Environment <\/strong><\/em>| Humanity can raise living standards, reduce inequality and keep global heating within a 2C rise, according to a sweeping vision for planetary survival<\/a>.
Ukraine <\/strong><\/em>| The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has called for face-to-face negotiations<\/a> in a public letter addressed directly to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.
England news <\/strong><\/em>| The poorest and most nature-deprived communities in England will be further left behind<\/a> in their access to green spaces if proposed changes to planning laws go ahead, a report finds.
UK news <\/strong><\/em>| Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor received private income<\/a> from subletting three cottages on his Windsor Royal Lodge estate while paying a \u201cpeppercorn rent\u201d to the crown estate, a report into royal property arrangements has revealed.
As the week draws to a close, Donald Trump has insisted once again Iran<\/a> is \u201cpretty close\u201d to signing a peace agreement with the US, which would see the strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage through which about 20% of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas passes, reopen.
But many would be forgiven for thinking it doesn\u2019t feel<\/em> like peace is coming. This week saw Israel make its deepest incursion into Lebanon in more than 26 years, with Israeli strikes killing at least nine people, and <\/strong>hundreds of thousands <\/strong>forced <\/strong>to flee their homes in the south of the country. The strikes complicated diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. On Thursday, the Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, said the military will continue its ground operations there, just <\/strong>hours after Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a US-backed ceasefire<\/a> to end hostilities. Later the leader of Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire too, demanding a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.
It\u2019s a territorial escalation for sure, says Emma, which has delighted far-right elements in Netanyahu\u2019s coalition government, who have called for the annexation of southern Lebanon<\/a>, as well as Gaza and the West Bank.
But while Trump is scaling back, aware of the war\u2019s unpopularity domestically and the impact of rising inflation and oil prices, analysts inside Israel believe Netanyahu is now seeking to broaden the conflict for his own strategic ends.
Does Israel desire a broader conflict?<\/strong>
\u201cThis war began looking incredibly impressive for the US and Israel,\u201d Emma tells me \u2013 but in her view, the totally predictable blocking of the strait of Hormuz has stalled it \u2013 leaving little indication of what success might look like.
Emma says: \u201cMany Israelis believe the election will be a test of whether Netanyahu can convince voters that he has achieved security gains since 7 October 2023, [when Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and injured many more] that outweigh the failings that left so many Israelis vulnerable to Hamas attacks on that day.\u201d
Since the start of the war in Iran, thousands of Israelis have been injured and 23 have been killed in missile strikes from Iran and Lebanon, figures up to April from Israel\u2019s ambulance service say.
Even at the start of the war, Emma wrote about how senior Israeli defence figures believed it was wishful thinking that Israel and the US could achieve regime change in Iran. With that ostensible goal never likely to be achieved,<\/strong> whether Iran held on to its enriched uranium stores would be the true measure of whether the war was a success or failure.
\u201cNow the war is in stalemate, and the thing that was most critical for Israel, the nuclear proliferation programme, doesn\u2019t seem to be on the table in negotiations. It looks very much like it\u2019s going to be a failure,\u201d says Emma.
But what could be on Netanyahu\u2019s mind are the upcoming elections in Israel\u2019s Knesset, which <\/strong>my First Edition colleague Michael Segalov explained in great detail<\/a> a few weeks ago.
\u201cIn that context returning to war in Lebanon \u2013 and Gaza \u2013 is absolutely a political and electoral strategy,\u201d she adds.
An ongoing catastrophe in Gaza and global disinterest<\/strong>
Despite a US-brokered \u201cceasefire\u201d coming into force last October, Emma explains that over 900 people have been killed in Gaza by continued Israeli bombardment since then.
And over one in 10 of the 2.3 million prewar population have been killed or injured since Israel began its war on Gaza, devastating the strip in what a UN commission has declared a genocide<\/a>. Now those who remain are crammed on to a sliver of land along the coast, which we can see on the map above, while Israeli troops push back the agreed \u201cyellow line\u201d in order to seize even more territory.
\u201cIsrael controls at least 60% of Gaza, which is now a wasteland. They\u2019ve demolished almost everything in the area and almost no Palestinians can live there,\u201d says Emma.
\u201cPart of the so-called ceasefire deal was supposed to be a lot more aid going in, but there still isn\u2019t enough. There are severe shortages of clean water, medical supplies, food. A lot of people are still going hungry.\u201d
Israel, which has repeatedly weaponised access to food and other basic supplies, says sufficient aid reaches Gaza. Last summer a bar on food shipments caused a famine.
\u201cIt\u2019s an ongoing humanitarian catastrophe,\u201d says Emma. \u201cThat\u2019s in addition to the combat actions killing on average over 100 people each month, which in most parts of the world would be considered an active war zone.\u201d
Yet there is little interest from the White House, despite Trump\u2019s well-rehearsed obsession with winning the Nobel peace prize. \u201c[Special envoy] Steve Witkoff and [Trump\u2019s son-in-law] Jared Kushner have reportedly been taken off Gaza to focus on Iran because its more of a priority for Trump. It\u2019s unpopular at home, and has had a damaging effect on the cost of living in the US,\u201d says Emma.
EU leaders are expected to rebuke Netanyahu for his continued expansion in Gaza and Lebanon at a forthcoming Brussels summit but, says Emma, he has a long history of shaking off criticism, and the EU has yet to use any of its considerable economic and political leverage \u2013 it is Israel\u2019s biggest trading partner.
The situation in Gaza does not seem to be a priority for governments around the world which are more concerned about the impact of the war in Iran on higher oil prices and inflation. \u201cWe see plenty of condemnation but very little practical steps that mean an improvement for people in Gaza who are living in this terrible limbo.\u201d
Living day to day in Iran and Lebanon<\/strong>
Indeed, people are living in limbo across the region, says Emma.
\u201cUndeniably many Iranians really hate their government \u2013 we saw that in January, then they came out in protest and were killed in very large numbers trying to get rid of it,\u201d
But that doesn\u2019t mean they have faith that the war will bring about a better alternative.
\u201cEqually, they don\u2019t believe \u2013 and history provides plenty of evidence for this \u2013 that liberation is going to come through a western bombing campaign.\u201d Iranians need only recall the decades-long conflict and political turmoil prompted by the US-led coalition\u2019s disastrous invasion of neighbouring Iraq.
\u201cIf you\u2019re in Tehran, particularly if you\u2019re anti-government, you\u2019ve probably lost friends in January, you\u2019re living under some bombardment, which is pretty terrifying because there aren\u2019t air raid shelters, and you\u2019re staring down more war, or at the worst, collapse into a failed state,\u201d says Emma.
\u201cYou can see why people are very worried and very frightened.\u201d
Iranians have told the Guardian they feel abandoned by foreign powers,<\/strong> enduring the fallout out of the war, which has damaged an already faltering economy and strengthened the oppressive regime.
\u201cI feel humiliated,\u201d Amir, <\/strong>a business owner from Mashhad, told one of our reporters recently<\/a>. He had once <\/strong>desperately hoped for US intervention, but <\/strong>he now finds himself questioning <\/strong>that. \u201cThis is not a ceasefire. It\u2019s a never-ending auction between the US and the Islamic Republic over our lives and our blood.\u201d
The situation is similar in Lebanon, Emma tells me. \u201cLarge sections of the population do not support Hezbollah. But Israel is bombing Beirut, occupying the south and demolishing whole villages, which Human Rights groups say should be investigated as war crimes<\/a>; there\u2019s no belief that this is going to bring them freedom or prosperity.\u201d
Alongside the immediate threat to personal safety, there\u2019s the economic impact \u2013 which always hits women, minorities and poorer people the hardest \u2013 as well as the psychological drag of uncertainty.
\u201cIn Lebanon, there\u2019s the difficulty of planning summer visits for families when international travel shuts down. And obviously, hanging over them, are generational memories of the horrors of the civil war in the 80s, and the 2006 war with Israel.\u201d
Will elections bring about any meaningful change?<\/strong>
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With upcoming elections in the US and Israel, some may be tempted to look for a glimmer of hope in the months ahead. Emma fears that might be misplaced. Israel\u2019s leading opposition contender does not seem to differ meaningfully from Netanyahu politically; meanwhile, it is hard to predict how Trump will react to the midterms \u2013 whether they offer humiliation or celebration for him.
What is known is the impact on the people who have to live through this day to day, with a bag packed.
Emma says that across Lebanon, Iran and Gaza, many people are asking the same question: why western democracies are allowing Israel to trample over international law that protects civilians. \u201cAnd particularly when it comes to European countries, why they are so vocal and committed about holding Russia to account for targeting civilians and destruction of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, but are almost silent about similar violations when they are the targets.\u201d
Yesterday I was at the opening night of the Design and Disability exhibition at V&A Dundee, and I\u2019d like to hear from you about your experiences of in\/accessible spaces before I write about it next week.
To get in touch hit reply or email first.edition@theguardian.com<\/a>
From Argentina\u2019s Messi to Cape Verde\u2019s Laros Duarte, our sports desk have made an amazing guide<\/a> to all 1,248 players at the 2026 World Cup<\/strong>. Patrick<\/strong><\/em>
I\u2018m a huge admirer of Dave Grimstead<\/a>, whose entirely volunteer-run cold case unit<\/strong>, takes the time and persistence to unravel the stories of lost and missing people and, crucially, to support their families too. Libby<\/strong><\/em>
The one and only Alexis Petridis<\/a> has reflected on 50 years of punk<\/strong> on the half century anniversary of the first ever Sex Pistols gig. Patrick<\/strong><\/em>
This manifesto<\/a> for an equal, sustainable world<\/strong>, from the likes of Thomas Pinketty and Cornelia Mohren, is an infusion of optimism. Libby<\/strong><\/em>
And, as World Cup fever takes hold, Michael Hann<\/a> ranks the top 20 songs about football<\/strong>. Patrick<\/strong><\/em>
Tennis <\/strong><\/em>| Poland\u2019s Maja \u00adChwalinska<\/a> became the first qualifier to play in a French Open final after defeating the No 25 seed, Diana Shnaider.
Cricket <\/strong><\/em>| Ollie Robinson admitted that just a few months ago he \u201cthought I was never playing for England again\u201d after he produced an extraordinary comeback<\/a> performance on the first day of the Test summer.
Football <\/strong><\/em>| Khaldoon al-Mubarak has revealed Pep Guardiola \u201cquit 100 times\u201d<\/a> as Manchester City manager, with the chair comparing the empty threats to The Boy Who Cried Wolf, one of Aesop\u2019s Fables.
\u201cBurnham: I won\u2019t flinch from need to fix the broken social care system\u201d, is the Guardian<\/strong>\u2019s top story today.
The Times<\/strong> has \u201cAndrew cashed in with Windsor cottage sub-lets\u201d, a story also featured by the Telegraph<\/strong>, which writes \u201cAndrew cashed in with secret rent deals\u201d, while the Mirror<\/strong>\u2019s take is \u201cWhat a cheek\u201d. The Mail<\/strong> says \u201cBeatrice and Eugenie have lived at Palaces rent-free for years\u201d.
Elsewhere, the FT<\/strong> has \u201cAI revenues must surge 100-fold for SpaceX to achieve $1.78tn valuation\u201d. The i Paper<\/strong> runs with \u201cRevealed: King\u2019s private concerns over Trump state visit to UK\u201d, the Express<\/strong> says \u201cKate shares in mum\u2019s joy\u201d and Metro<\/strong> has \u201cFifa sucking fans dry\u201d.
Our critics\u2019 roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now<\/em>
Film<\/strong><\/em>
Savage House | \u2605\u2605\u2605<\/strong>\u2606\u2606
<\/strong>Black-belt performances from Claire Foy and Richard E Grant put some vim and vigour into this haranguingly one-note and unidirectional period romp of the raucously bewigged and be-poxed 18th century. It\u2019s written and directed by American film-maker Peter Glanz, who gives us candlelit interiors like a knockoff Barry Lyndon, and periodic deafening orchestral stabs with a touch of Amadeus, as furious people in costume storm down corridors. Grant and Foy play Sir Chauncey and Lady Savage, who are living in a vast crumbling country estate. It\u2019s all a bit strenuous but Foy and Grant are such class acts that they make this watchable. Peter Bradshaw<\/strong><\/em>
Music<\/strong><\/em>
Lizzo: Bitch | \u2605\u2605<\/strong>\u2606\u2606\u2606
Bitch, Lizzo\u2019s fifth album, lands at a deeply peculiar juncture in her career. Given that the public apparently don\u2019t want her going rock, nor rapping in the style of her 2013 debut Lizzobangers, nor indeed making the kind of music they were buying in their millions three years ago, the question of what they actually do want has presumably hung heavy over its making. Lizzo hasn\u2019t come up with a definitive answer. Bitch tries a bit of everything, this scatter-gun approach makes it a disjointed listen. There\u2019s something oddly subdued about its tone and the lyrics often seem equivocal. What\u2019s definitely lacking is a pop smash, the kind of thing that Lizzo once seemed to be able to write to order. Alexis Petridis<\/strong><\/em>
TV<\/strong><\/em>
Cape Fear | \u2605\u2605\u2605\u2605\u2605
<\/strong>Welcome to the latest screen incarnation of John D MacDonald\u2019s taut psychological thriller, published in 1957 as The Executioners and now adapted for the third time under the title Cape Fear. Nick Antosca\u2019s 10-part series matches our new sophistications and probes every single modern weakness, fear and pressure point. It is a wild ride. The new Cape Fear stars Amy Adams and Patrick Wilson as lawyers Anna and Tom Bowden and Javier Bardem having the absolute time of his life as Max Cady. It is a masterclass in tension, in taking things right to the edge of credulity and it never forgets the power of the jump scare. Lucy Mangan<\/strong><\/em>
Books<\/strong><\/em>
Wimmy Road Boyz by Sufiyaan Salam<\/strong>
Sufiyaan Salam\u2019s high-octane debut novel is written largely in gen Z lowercase \u2013 and you\u2019re in for a ride. The Boyz are British Pakistani friends in their early 20s. The eponymous Wimmy Road reflects the deteriorating mood of the characters. Violence simmers, then overflows. Nothing about Wimmy Road Boyz is subtle: Salam lays his cards on the table. But despite the foreshadowing work, when he finally hits the brakes on the narrative, the effect is immediate, a raw shock. A literary performance like no other, this coming-of-age meets state-of-the-nation novel tears through Britain\u2019s social fabric to examine toxic masculinity, community and youth culture. Sana Goyal<\/strong><\/em>
Is the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire over before it began?<\/strong>
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to implement a ceasefire to end hostilities as the US attempts to overcome one of the largest barriers to reaching a broader deal to end the war with Iran. But the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is dependent on a complete halt of fire from Hezbollah, and the evacuation of all its fighters in southern Lebanon. Lucy Hough speaks to Beirut-based reporter William Christou<\/a>.
A bit of good news to remind you that the world\u2019s not all bad<\/em>
The Guardian\u2019s Alternatives series has been brilliant at showing us all another way to live. This time, Chlo\u00e9 Farand is writing about an alternative to fossil fuel based fertilisers that are made using recycled urine<\/a>. With swathes of the world\u2019s chemical fertiliser supplies clogged up in the strait of Hormuz, VunaNexus, the Swiss startup behind the technology, is betting that this can be a solution in a fossil fuel-free world.
Sign up here<\/a> for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday<\/strong>
And finally, the Guardian\u2019s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
Quick crossword<\/a>
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