{"id":215252,"date":"2026-06-28T19:57:59","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T19:57:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/world-cup-knockout-bracket-predictions-picking-the-biggest-shocks-best-games-and-winners-the-athletic-the-new-york-times\/"},"modified":"2026-06-28T19:57:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T19:57:59","slug":"world-cup-knockout-bracket-predictions-picking-the-biggest-shocks-best-games-and-winners-the-athletic-the-new-york-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/world-cup-knockout-bracket-predictions-picking-the-biggest-shocks-best-games-and-winners-the-athletic-the-new-york-times\/","title":{"rendered":"World Cup knockout bracket predictions: Picking the biggest shocks, best games and winners – The Athletic – The New York Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

World Cup
FIFA World
Cup 2026
LIVE
54s ago<\/span>
Will Mbappe or Messi win the World Cup? Or neither Getty Images<\/span>
After 72 World Cup group stage matches the bracket is set<\/a> and the remaining 32 teams are all five rounds away from the game\u2019s biggest prize.
It\u2019s knockout football from here with all three host nations still standing and stars including Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland and Harry Kane firing in goals.
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So, who is the best team left? Who is going to be in the final? Who are the best fans? The best player? Where will the shocks come? And who is going to win it?
\"\"
We asked our writers, and this is what they said.
Oliver Kay:<\/strong> In terms of quality, it\u2019s France. Their first half in their opening game, against Senegal, was poor. But since then, they\u2019ve been excellent. For fun, it\u2019s probably Senegal or Japan.
James Horncastle:<\/strong> If you forget the first half against Senegal at MetLife, France have looked as good on the pitch as they look on paper. This has not always been the case with Didier Deschamps. It is a welcome development.
Jack Pitt-Brooke:<\/strong> Quite to my surprise, the USA. Not many teams actually bring dynamic, intense vertical football into the international game, but Mauricio Pochettino has managed it. Combine that with the atmosphere as hosts and their games are all must-see from here on.
Jay Harris:<\/strong> Japan have been mesmerising. They finished second and were unbeaten in a challenging group which contained the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia. Key players Wataru Endo and Kaoru Mitoma missed out on the tournament through injury but they still play with such effortless fluency. Daizen Maeda\u2019s goal against Sweden was pure poetry.
Laura Williamson:<\/strong> In terms of the ball on the grass, it\u2019s got to be France but my answer is actually the United States or Canada. I\u2019m fascinated by people falling in love with these teams and the game in general \u2014 and long may it continue.
Felipe Cardenas:<\/strong> France. This team is simply too good to ignore. Even against Norway, a game that meant very little to them, France put on a show. Ousmane Dembele scored a hat-trick and proved to everyone that, together with superstar Kylian Mbappe, no attack is better equipped to win the tournament.
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Matt Slater:<\/strong> This is a tough one, as no team has been absolutely brilliant for the entire game, three times. France have been the best I have seen in person but I have also enjoyed the Dutch on TV \u2014 thrills and spills.
Phil Hay:<\/strong> Japan\/Colombia. Japan because they have no superstars, prima donnas or passengers. That might sound underwhelming but it makes them a proper team. Colombia because they\u2019re flamboyant and ambitious in their play \u2014 and the emotion of it all drives players such as Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez to tears. Diaz has performed like a man possessed.
Jordan Campbell:<\/strong> I have enjoyed Morocco the most. They are not perfect but they are full of invention and creativity. When they get their combination play and counter-attacking right, they look capable of going all the way. Whether they can sustain it for full games without giving too many chances away is the big question.
Lukas Weese:<\/strong> Argentina. With Messi on the pitch, still playing so well despite being 39, Argentina remains a threat.
Patrick Iversen:<\/strong> Japan. This may be familiarity bias because I\u2019ve seen two of their games live, but I just love the way they play football.
Greg O\u2019Keeffe:<\/strong> France. It\u2019s like watching Paris Saint-Germain on cheat mode.
Austin Green:<\/strong> Most aesthetically pleasing? Japan. Flatout best? France.
Kay:<\/strong> Lionel Messi.
Horncastle:<\/strong> Improbably, still Messi.<\/a> Others will go for Mbappe, and I did enjoy being present for a stadium-wide cheer in Philadelphia when he tracked back and regained possession for his team. Shout out to Vinicius Junior, who has also stepped up.
Pitt-Brooke:<\/strong> No point trying to be clever here: it\u2019s obviously Messi.
Harris:<\/strong> There is a small part of me which wants to build a convincing argument for somebody else just to be different, but the only possible answer is Messi. We should not forget about Lamine Yamal, though. He will play a more prominent role for Spain during the rest of the World Cup now that he is fully fit.
Williamson:<\/strong> Mbappe. He hasn\u2019t missed a penalty at this World Cup, has he?
Cardenas:<\/strong> Messi. Is the Argentine as fast and dynamic as Yamal and Mbappe? He isn\u2019t. But the 39-year-old is playing like he doesn\u2019t want his international career to ever end. Bravo.
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Slater:<\/strong> I was in the mixed zone in Doha when Messi said the 2022 World Cup would be his last \u2026 what a fibber. He is still the best, though.
Hay:<\/strong> Mbappe. That will be proven by the end of the tournament, I think. But my favourite player is Australia goalkeeper Patrick Beach<\/a>, as explained here.
Campbell:<\/strong> Messi. It\u2019s almost funny at this point to keep saying, aged 39, that he is still the best. But he is. Until someone else displays the same mesmerising vision, passing range and clinical touch in front of goal, only a bias against age would see him rank below.
Weese:<\/strong> Mbappe. Not only is he scoring goals but he\u2019s making his team-mates look special too.
Iversen:<\/strong> Mbappe. It\u2019s best not to overthink these things.
O\u2019Keeffe:<\/strong> Mbappe is putting his problems at Real Madrid behind him. An unstoppable force of nature.
Green:<\/strong> Right now? Messi. After the final? Probably Mbappe.
Kay:<\/strong> It has to be Bubista, who has led Cape Verde to the knockout stage, conceding only two goals in what looked like a horrible group. They have some talented players, but their biggest strengths are their unity, their organisation and their defiance. That reflects on the coach.<\/p>\n

Horncastle:<\/strong> Can\u2019t argue with Bubista. Cape Verde are unbeaten in 12 games. Maybe we should have seen this coming when they swept Serbia aside 3-0 at the end of May. Can\u2019t believe we\u2019re not doing the worst \u2026 I\u2019ll save that entry for another day.
Pitt-Brooke:<\/strong> I thought South Africa were an absolute shambles in the opening game against Mexico, so hats off to Hugo Broos for dragging them through to the knockout stage. I could even see them finding their way through to the last-16 as well now.
Harris:<\/strong> Emerse Fae deserves credit for guiding Ivory Coast to the knockout stage for the first time in their history. It\u2019s a remarkable achievement which the golden generation of Didier Drogba, Yaya Toure and Kolo Toure failed to achieve. They have the youngest squad at the tournament with an average age of 25.4 and will cause Norway problems in the next round.
Williamson:<\/strong> Bubista. Cape Verde\u2019s achievement is absolutely remarkable. But an honourable mention to Ghana\u2019s Carlos Queiroz, too. I don\u2019t agree with much he says, but he certainly had the upper hand against Thomas Tuchel and England.
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Cardenas:<\/strong> Ronald Koeman. The Dutch are flying. Ten goals in their first three matches caught my attention. Their football has been silky and the manager appears to be getting everything right. His tactics aren\u2019t always the most expansive, but I\u2019ll give him credit for getting his selections right.
Slater:<\/strong> A draw between Cape Verde\u2019s Bubista and Iran\u2019s Amir Ghalenoei. For Cape Verde to get through their group undefeated was a remarkable achievement. Bubista\u2019s is the classic underdog story, while Ghalenoei and his squad had to deal with a unique set of disadvantages \u2014 they were unfortunate not to go through.
Hay:<\/strong> Pound for pound, it\u2019s Cape Verde\u2019s Bubista. His team didn\u2019t bluff their way to draws against Spain, Uruguay or Saudi Arabia. They\u2019re drilled and confident. In terms of bigger nations, Ronald Koeman has the Netherlands ticking along nicely.
Campbell:<\/strong> Bubista. To go unbeaten in a group containing Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia is incredible.
Weese:<\/strong> Lionel Scaloni. He is getting a cohesive performance out of his players through the group stage.
Iversen:<\/strong> Koeman. The Netherlands has looked dominant since a shaky opener against Japan.
O\u2019Keeffe:<\/strong> It\u2019s Ghalenoei, given what he and his players have had to contend with, or Bubista. For the sake of positivity, Bubista nicks it.
Green:<\/strong> Bubista has made history with Cape Verde, and it is no fluke.
Kay:<\/strong> Netherlands vs Morocco looks like fun. Argentina vs Cape Verde is a hugely appealing game too, but I will be very pleasantly surprised if it\u2019s a close contest.
Horncastle:<\/strong> It\u2019s Netherlands-Morocco for the talent on display and the cultural ties too
Pitt-Brooke<\/strong>: I think Japan might be the worst possible opponent for Brazil to face at this stage. They\u2019re so clever, so fit and so sharp; I just wonder if they might be able to pick Brazil off.
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Harris:<\/strong> Japan against Brazil has all the ingredients of an instant classic. Morocco\u2019s clash against the Netherlands will be fascinating too. Several members of Morocco\u2019s squad, including Noussair Mazraoui and Sofyan Amrabat, were born in the Netherlands, which adds an extra pinch of spice. Amrabat even made a few appearances for them at youth-team level.
Williamson:<\/strong> Ivory Coast vs Norway. You suspect there might be a few goals in that one (I\u2019ve probably cursed it now) but it would be incredible to see an African side progress, particularly after Norway\u2019s ridiculous raft of changes in their 4-1 defeat by France.
Cardenas:<\/strong> Mexico vs Ecuador. This will be a primetime showdown in Mexico City\u2019s temple, the Estadio Azteca. It\u2019s the co-hosts, winners of three group stage matches in front of frenzied crowds, versus a World Cup dark horse that is used to playing at altitude. Ecuador are nearly unbeatable in the capital of Quito, which will give them confidence in the thin air of Mexico City. I cannot wait for this one.<\/span>
Slater:<\/strong> Morocco vs Netherlands, FIFA\u2019s sixth-ranked team versus its seventh, in the round of 32? Good grief. This is exactly the type of premature jeopardy that did for the old European Cup. Much more of this excitement and FIFA will bring back a second group stage.
Hay:<\/strong> The Netherlands versus Morocco. Not much else comes close.
Campbell:<\/strong> Netherlands vs Morocco. Ronald Koeman\u2019s side may not be the most beautiful Dutch team ever but they made light work of their group. Morocco, on the other hand, are brilliantly inventive. I\u2019m intrigued as to how those styles will match up.
Weese: <\/strong>Portugal and Croatia. Cristiano Ronaldo, 41, taking on Luka Modric, 40, will be compelling. 
<\/strong>
Iversen:<\/strong> Argentina vs Cape Verde, purely for the \u201ccan Cape Verde really do it?\u201d factor that might last five minutes. Here\u2019s hoping it lasts at least 45?
O\u2019Keeffe:<\/strong> Morocco against the Netherlands has the potential to be utterly absorbing.
Green:<\/strong> Netherlands vs Morocco, two sides that simply do not lose easily in major tournaments.
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Kay:<\/strong> One of the three hosts might come unstuck. They have all played really well so far, and all have winnable ties, but it is very easy to get over-excited and lose sight of what\u2019s in front of you.
Horncastle:<\/strong> I don\u2019t think it\u2019ll be a shock because I\u2019ve seen them deny Italy a place at the World Cup. But I have a suspicion Bosnia will pop the U.S. bubble.
Pitt-Brooke:<\/strong> Ecuador play Mexico in the last 32. Ecuador are a fantastic team, as they showed in the way they bullied Germany in New Jersey in their third game to make it through. They won\u2019t have an issue with the altitude either. No one will want to play them.
Harris:<\/strong> The USMNT fail to reach the quarter-finals. A favourable draw has opened up for them and, despite losing to Turkey in their final group-stage game, expectations have skyrocketed. The pressure is going to build and I have a bad feeling they will crack against a team they are expected to beat.
Williamson:<\/strong> It\u2019s oddly hard to predict shocks when there are still 32 teams left in it! But I can see Brazil stuttering against Japan, and I wonder about the Netherlands against Morocco too. (I\u2019m being beaten by a six-year-old in The Athletic<\/em>\u2019s Pick \u2018Em<\/a> game, so take that with a pinch of salt!)
Cardenas:<\/strong> Ivory Coast eliminates Norway. Haaland will be the first big star at this World Cup to pack his bags and go home.
Slater:<\/strong> Is Ecuador beating Mexico in Mexico City a shock? Is South Africa beating Canada in L.A. a shock? OK, how about both happening and we lose two of the co-hosts this round?
Hay:<\/strong> Japan knock out Brazil (OK, this probably won\u2019t happen, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s out of the question).
Campbell:<\/strong> England go out in the last 16 or earlier to a team not ranked in the world\u2019s top 10. Could the U.S. also do the unthinkable and make it to the semi-final? They\u2019re in a very favourable corner of the draw.
Weese:<\/strong> Canada makes the quarter-finals of the World Cup. You heard it here first.
Iversen:<\/strong> The U.S. doesn\u2019t make it to the round of 16.
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O\u2019Keeffe:<\/strong> England go out before the quarter-finals. Injuries are exposing potential deep flaws in Thomas Tuchel\u2019s selection logic.
Green:<\/strong> An organised, clinical Japan defeat Brazil in the round of 32.
Kay:<\/strong> Argentina\u2019s. So loud, so passionate, with so much love for their team. The atmosphere they bring is something special.
Horncastle:<\/strong> The Scots. Not for drinking Boston out of beer, but for the remix of Miami by Will Smith. Bienvenido, Tartan Army.
Pitt-Brooke:<\/strong> Can I say Ecuador again? The noise when Gonzalo Plata stabbed the winner past Manuel Neuer was one of the loudest of the whole tournament. And their fans lit up New York City all week.
Harris:<\/strong> I saw a lot of Ecuador fans partying late into the night after their victory over Germany. Norway\u2019s Viking row celebration deserves a special mention, too.
Cardenas:<\/strong> The Scots. The Tartan Army are the GOATs of World Cup fan supporters.
Slater:<\/strong> Ecuador\u2019s yellow army is the best, brightest and loudest I have encountered at this tournament so far. The only mistake they made was putting their colours on the Rocky statue in Philadelphia. Rookie error.
Hay:<\/strong> The Dutch. That \u2018Al Rechts, Al Links\u2019 song is ace, and the swathes of orange always look good. Kudos to Japan for their litter-tidying routine too.
Campbell:<\/strong> Norway. Only a few overly optimistic Scotland fans remain on U.S. soil but the vibrancy and feel-good fun of the Tartan Army has been carried on by the Vikings in Boston. Their famous \u2018Norwegian row\u2019 has been shaking stadiums and taking over bars.
Weese:<\/strong> I\u2019ll give some love to Ghana, Ivory Coast and Senegal supporters who I saw in Toronto. Their musical chants are incredible.
Iversen:<\/strong> Everyone who wasn\u2019t stationed in Boston for the group stage feels a bit of FOMO about the Scottish fans. They deserved better from their team.
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O\u2019Keeffe:<\/strong> Scotland\u2019s, who haven\u2019t had anywhere near as much to cheer on the pitch as Norway\u2019s, but who have won most neutral hearts.
Green:<\/strong> The rowing Norway supporters.
Kay:<\/strong> Mbappe. But whoever wins it, it will be with the highest total since Gerd Muller\u2019s 10 in 1970.
Horncastle:<\/strong> I think Mbappe has more talent around him than Messi. He doesn\u2019t have to do as much himself.
Pitt-Brooke:<\/strong> I can\u2019t repeat Messi again, so I will go for Kylian Mbappe, who seems to become a different player during these big tournaments.
Harris:<\/strong> I\u2019m going with Mbappe. Messi might hold the all-time goalscoring record for now, but Mbappe will inevitably rip it away from him at some point.
Williamson:<\/strong> Mbappe.
Cardenas:<\/strong> Messi. The Argentina captain is leading the pack, and I don\u2019t expect him to slow down. Messi, Mbappe and Kane will battle for this award, although Dembele is lurking, too.
Slater:<\/strong> Just to be slightly contrary, I am going for Kane, as England are not good enough to rest him, he takes penalties and if he does not score at least seven goals here, England will not make the last week of the tournament.
Hay:<\/strong> The aforementioned Mbappe.
Campbell:<\/strong> I don\u2019t think Norway will go deep enough for Haaland to win it and I\u2019m still unsure of whether Brazil will get to the end, despite Vinicius Jnr looking inspired. Messi is the main contender but France are so dangerous that I can\u2019t see Mbappe not getting to double figures by the end of the tournament.
Weese:<\/strong> Messi. We haven\u2019t reached the important games yet and there\u2019s just a feeling he will get on the scoresheet more times.
Iversen:<\/strong> Messi, as long as FIFA doesn\u2019t decide the remaining games will be 90 minutes of penalty shots.
O\u2019Keeffe:<\/strong> Mbappe. At the moment, it\u2019s hard to see who stops him once Messi and Haaland face tougher opponents.
Green:<\/strong> Mbappe, with 12 goals to give him a neat 20 over two World Cups.
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Kay:<\/strong> France and Argentina again. That will be the most common pick, I expect, but it looks like a pretty open field.
Horncastle:<\/strong> France and Argentina, a repeat of four years ago.
Pitt-Brooke:<\/strong> The issue is that France and Spain are in the same half of the draw, but I would go for Spain to win the Dallas semi. Argentina are the best team in the Atlanta half of the draw.
Harris:<\/strong> France and Argentina are on opposite sides of the draw and the prospect of them facing each other in successive finals is tantalising. It would be only the second time in history that has happened after West Germany and Argentina in 1986 and 1990.
Williamson:<\/strong> France and Argentina. But it will take some beating to beat what I was lucky enough to witness in Doha in December 2022.
Cardenas:<\/strong> France vs Brazil. My big bold take before the tournament started was that Brazil would stay in the tournament longer than Argentina, but fail to win it. France versus Brazil has a nice ring to it.
Slater:<\/strong> France and \u2026 Argentina. I want to be contrary again but there is a limit.
Hay:<\/strong> France and Argentina again.
Campbell:<\/strong> France and Argentina. A chance for Mbappe to exact revenge. A chance for Messi to make himself doubly immortal.
Weese:<\/strong> France and Argentina. Messi versus Mbappe 2.0 would be the perfect conclusion to this epic World Cup.
Iversen:<\/strong> France and England.
O\u2019Keeffe:<\/strong> France and Argentina.
Green:<\/strong> France and Argentina.
Kay:<\/strong> I said France at the start, and I\u2019ll stick with that. But it\u2019s not going to be easy. They\u2019ll face Sweden and then, potentially, Germany, Netherlands\/Morocco and Spain just to get to the final. That could take a toll.
Horncastle:<\/strong> France. Mbappe scored a hat-trick in the final in Qatar and didn\u2019t win. He\u2019s playing as if he wants to set that right.
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Pitt-Brooke:<\/strong> Messi does what Diego Maradona could not do and wins Argentina consecutive World Cups.
Harris:<\/strong> West Germany avenged their defeat to Argentina in 1986 four years later, and I\u2019m tipping France to follow in their footsteps. Argentina have been impressive so far but I don\u2019t think anybody can stop Mbappe and his supporting cast of Dembele, Desire Doue and Michael Olise.
Williamson:<\/strong> France. I\u2019ve changed my mind again!
Cardenas:<\/strong> France. Too good. Too deep. And too much Mbappe.
Slater:<\/strong> France, for the same reason as above. Their attacking options are almost unfair.
Hay:<\/strong> France. They\u2019re clearly the best side.
Campbell:<\/strong> I picked Argentina at the start, so will stick with it. France\u2019s firepower can be too much for anyone on their day, but they still lack a bit of balance.
Weese:<\/strong> France to beat Argentina in penalties.
Iversen:<\/strong> France. England\u2019s World Cup heartbreak is basically load-bearing infrastructure at this point.
O\u2019Keeffe:<\/strong> France. Didier Deschamps\u2019 bond with his players will only have been deepened by his bereavement, and it could galvanise the group behind him further. As a team, they\u2019re unmatched.
Green:<\/strong> France. Revenge is a dish best served on a suspect grass playing surface.
Spot the pattern. Connect the terms
Find the hidden link between sports terms
Play today's puzzle<\/p>\n

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