{"id":212563,"date":"2026-06-03T20:34:55","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T20:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wmo-prepare-for-el-nino-world-meteorological-organization-wmo\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T20:34:55","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T20:34:55","slug":"wmo-prepare-for-el-nino-world-meteorological-organization-wmo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wmo-prepare-for-el-nino-world-meteorological-organization-wmo\/","title":{"rendered":"WMO: Prepare for El Ni\u00f1o – World Meteorological Organization WMO"},"content":{"rendered":"

Geneva, Switzerland (WMO) – Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Ni\u00f1o conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  
A new WMO El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update<\/a> indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Ni\u00f1o event during June\u2013August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Ni\u00f1o peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate \u2013 and possibly strong.
WMO El Ni\u00f1o\/Updates are the world\u2019s most authoritative source of information for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world and are produced through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).  
\u201cThe science is clear: El Ni\u00f1o is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty.  The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Ni\u00f1o conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.  Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.  The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis \u2013 ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.\u201d said UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, in his video statement<\/a>.
In late April to mid-May, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific \u2013 the area used as a monitoring reference – was approaching El Ni\u00f1o thresholds, according to observations from different platforms used by WMO.  
These increasing surface anomalies are being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6 \u00b0C above average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat that is contributing to the observed surface warming.  
Meanwhile, the Southern Oscillation Index \u2013 which is the atmospheric component of El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 is also consistent with developing El Ni\u00f1o conditions.
\u201cWe need to prepare for a potentially strong El Ni\u00f1o event \u2013 which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Ni\u00f1o, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,\u201d said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo<\/a>.
\u201cThe WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,\u201d said Celeste Saulo.
WMO has issued a complementary Global Seasonal Climate Update \u2013 which takes into account other climate drivers, enabling more refined regional forecasts.
El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a are opposite phases of the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth.
El Ni\u00f1o is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
It generally begins developing between March and June and reaches its peak intensity between November and February, with impacts on global temperatures typically being most pronounced in the second year after development.  
The effects of each El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur.  
The strength of an ENSO event is highly significant \u2013 whether it is classed as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. Even a moderate El Ni\u00f1o makes some weather and climate extremes more likely.
WMO does not use the term \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d because it is not part of standardized operational classifications.
There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. But it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increases the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as  heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Each El Ni\u00f1o event is unique in terms of its evolution, spatial pattern and impacts.  <\/p>\n

However, it is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
During the Boreal summer, El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central\/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. Thus, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year<\/a>.
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and WMO Regional Climate Centres and Regional Climate Outlook Forums issue regularly updated information to inform national and regional decision-making. WMO is also providing regular briefings to humanitarian agencies via the WMO Coordination Mechanism.
For example, the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) predicts a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa<\/a> during the critical June\u2013September rainy season. <\/p>\n

Similarly, South Asia is expected to receive below average monsoon rainfall, according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum<\/a>.  
The Central America region expects drier and warmer conditions according to the Central America Climate Outlook Forum<\/a>.
WMO also issued a complementary Global Seasonal Climate Update<\/a> which takes into account ENSO and other key climate drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole \u2013 which correlates closely with El Ni\u00f1o in the Pacific and which may develop into a positive phase, peaking concurrently with the intensifying El Ni\u00f1o.
For the June-July-August season, forecasts project a nearly universal dominance of above-normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe. These increase risks of heat stress and compounding hazards in some regions and accelerate the development of drought conditions where rainfall is reduced.
Rainfall probabilities are typical of El Ni\u00f1o patterns and this is likely to contribute to a greater probability of extremes (e.g. increased rainfall and flooding, as well as drier conditions and droughts.
The WMO El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, and is based on contributions from experts worldwide, inter alia, of the following institutions: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Centro Internacional para la Investigaci\u00f3n del Fen\u00f3meno El Ni\u00f1o (CIIFEN), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America (USA), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Met Office of the United Kingdom, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), WMO Global Producing Centres of Seasonal Prediction (GPCs-SP) including the Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-SPMME).
The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System\u2019s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water.<\/span><\/p>\n

source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Geneva, Switzerland (WMO) – Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Ni\u00f1o conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  A new WMO El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update indicates an […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":212564,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-212563","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world","8":"entry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=212563"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212563\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/212564"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=212563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=212563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=212563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}