{"id":152407,"date":"2025-06-06T13:19:14","date_gmt":"2025-06-06T13:19:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/jobs-data-from-may-could-show-a-mostly-stable-economy-but-economists-say-trump-tariffs-will-soon-bite-nbc-news\/"},"modified":"2025-06-06T13:19:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T13:19:14","slug":"jobs-data-from-may-could-show-a-mostly-stable-economy-but-economists-say-trump-tariffs-will-soon-bite-nbc-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/jobs-data-from-may-could-show-a-mostly-stable-economy-but-economists-say-trump-tariffs-will-soon-bite-nbc-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Jobs data from May could show a mostly stable economy, but economists say Trump tariffs will soon bite – NBC News"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The United States added 139,000 jobs in May, more than expected but pointing to a labor market that continues to slow.
The employment data released Friday<\/a> by the Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded forecasts for about 120,000 payroll gains but marked a decline from the revised 147,000 jobs added in April. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, remaining near historic lows.
Job losses in the federal government continued to pile up, with that sector shedding 22,000 roles in May alone. The federal workforce is down by 59,000 since January, largely due to sweeping cuts by the Trump administration and multibillionaire tech executive Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency project.
Even as the economy continued to add jobs at a relatively steady clip last month, the report showed other signs of a weakening labor market. The ratio of employed workers to the total population fell to 59.7%, the lowest rate since the pandemic.
And an alternative measure of unemployment that includes “discouraged” workers, or those who have stopped looking for work, returned to a post-pandemic high of 4.5%.
Heading into Friday, other data showed signs of a softening economy.
On Wednesday, private payroll processor ADP reported<\/a> the weakest monthly jobs total since March 2023. While economists say ADP\u2019s data often align with the official BLS data, the trend is clear, with ADP reporting fewer jobs added in five of the past seven months<\/a>.
A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed that activity at U.S. service firms unexpectedly contracted last month for the first time in nearly a year, while hiring cooled.
On Thursday, the Labor Department reported weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected, reaching their highest level since October \u2014 while continuing unemployment claims remained elevated, an indication that it is taking longer for out-of-work people to find a job.
\u201cWe\u2019re throttling back \u2014 and the damage from the trade war is still coming,\u201d Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics, told NBC News ahead of Friday’s BLS report.
Zandi said forthcoming inflation readings are likely to reflect firms raising prices because of Trump\u2019s import taxes. Indeed, a Federal Reserve survey released Wednesday<\/a> indicated \u201cwidespread reports\u201d of companies \u201cexpecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward,\u201d with higher tariffs \u201cputting upward pressure on costs and prices.\u201d
Separately, a Congressional Budget Office study now estimates inflation will increase by an average of 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 as a result of Trump\u2019s tariffs. As prices begin to rise, consumer dollars won\u2019t go as far, Zandi said. That will likely lead to a feedback loop of reduced economic activity and reduced hiring.
\u201cThe job market already feels fragile,\u201d he added.
As demand softens \u201cmore palpably,\u201d Zandi said, \u201cwe\u2019ll start to see layoffs\u201d \u2014 with BLS jobs data likely falling consistently below 100,000 in the coming months.
Already, firms are showing signs of holding back on investment and bringing on new workers. Earlier in the week, the BLS reported<\/a> that the hiring rate remains stuck at levels last seen in 2014, when the U.S. economy was still emerging from the Great Recession.
Trump has claimed that thanks to his tariffs, the U.S. economy is \u201cbooming.\u201d <\/a>Yet he continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which would make it easier for businesses and consumers to borrow money. In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday<\/a>, he pointed to the weak ADP payrolls numbers as evidence that the economy needs support.
Analysts say that despite the gathering signs of economic deterioration, the bar remains high for the Federal Reserve to lower rates. Instead, the central bank will likely continue to err on the side of keeping interest rates elevated to ensure the pace of price growth remains under control, said Andrew Husby, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas financial group.
For consumers, that means relief is still not in sight.
\u201cIt\u2019s going to take something obviously cracking in a sustained way\u201d for the Fed to reduce borrowing costs, Husby said.
Rob Wile is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist covering breaking business stories for NBCNews.com.
© 2025 NBCUniversal Media, LLC<\/p>\n

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