{"id":114114,"date":"2024-11-05T08:39:18","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T08:39:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/latest-presidential-election-polls-harris-vs-trump-the-telegraph\/"},"modified":"2024-11-05T08:39:18","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T08:39:18","slug":"latest-presidential-election-polls-harris-vs-trump-the-telegraph","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/latest-presidential-election-polls-harris-vs-trump-the-telegraph\/","title":{"rendered":"Latest presidential election polls: Harris vs Trump – The Telegraph"},"content":{"rendered":"

A<\/span>ssassination attempts, the dropping out of the incumbent, criminal convictions and a record-breaking donation haul \u2013 the 2024 US presidential election cycle is a rollercoaster ride.\u00a0
With just over a day to go until Americans head to the polls on November 5th, the Telegraph is tracking the race at every turn.
Kamala Harris had long maintained a lead over Donald Trump after Joe Biden withdrew and endorsed her as the Democratic nominee, according to our national polling aggregates. But the space between them has been vanishing with each passing day.\u00a0
The candidates held a blitz of thousands-strong events over the final weekend. Their jets briefly sharing the tarmac in Charlotte, North Carolina was testament to the importance of the swing states: Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvannia also saw last-minute appearances.\u00a0
The Republican has had the wind in his sails over the closing weeks, but the most recent poll in Iowa\u00a0\u2013 a state Trump won comfortably in 2016 and 2020\u00a0\u2013 found the Democrat pulling ahead. The former president has so far refused to say whether he would accept the results if he lost. In the closest contest in memory, the stakes could hardly be higher.
The road to the White House is anything but straightforward. Five times the winner of the popular vote has lost the election \u2013 Hillary Clinton in 2016 most recently.
The outcome depends on Electoral College votes: each state returns a share of the country\u2019s 538 electors, distributed according to population. The magic number for the presidency is a 270 majority.
It’s advantage Trump according to current state-level polling, but there is less than half a point between the candidates for around 80 pivotal electors, most of whom from the swing states.
Immigration has arguably been the most hot-button issue of the campaign. Harris was handed the task of tackling the \u201croot causes\u201d of Central American migration early in her term. The Trump campaign has repeatedly accused her of being a \u201cfailed border tsar\u201d.
When Biden dropped out, his vice president had a net disapproval rating of 16 points. Her popularity has improved since, recently climbing into positive territory.
Trump, on the other hand, remains vulnerable on reproductive rights. Polls of US adults consistently find a majority support the right to abortion at least in some circumstances, and Harris has strongly voiced her desire to undo the reversal of Roe vs Wade. The Republican candidate is currently running at a net disapproval rating of nine points.
Vice presidential picks are often more about political calculation than aptitude for the top job. They can balance out a ticket, moderating a fiery presidential candidate, expand its appeal to a broader range of demographic groups or deliver a key state.
JD Vance, the 40-year-old Ohio senator, bestselling author and Yale-educated venture capitalist was unveiled as Trump\u2019s running mate in July. A series of gaffes at rallies, as well as unearthed comments about America being run by \u201cchildless cat ladies\u201d, saw him quickly become the least popular VP hopeful in history.
His counterpart is 60-year-old Minnesota governor Tim Walz. A relative unknown on the national political stage, the Democrats have been emphasising his small-town Nebraskan roots with a view to swaying undecided Midwestern voters. While more popular than his counterpart, he also emerged as a divisive figure with the electorate.<\/p>\n

Some states are blue through-and-through \u2013 think California and Washington on the Pacific coast, or Massachusetts and New York on the shores of the Atlantic \u2013 others are strongholds of the GOP: the Great Plains\u2019 Wyoming, the Rust Belt\u2019s West Virginia or the Deep South\u2019s Alabama.
Minds here are assumed made up regardless of who appears on the ballot, and candidates rarely lavish them with their time or money as a result. The outcome of the election instead hinges on a handful of key battlegrounds that could \u201cswing\u201d either way<\/a>.
In 2024, these are Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Together they account for 93 Electoral College votes, all of which are to play for.
With more votes to cast than any other swing state, clinching Pennsylvania will be election night\u2019s most sought-after prize. After siding with the Democratic candidate in every presidential contest between 1988 and 2012, Trump bested Hillary Clinton there in 2016 by a margin of just 0.8 per cent. In 2020, Biden won it back.
The lead here keeps changing hands, with Pennsylvania consistently one of the tightest races in the country. It\u2019s no surprise that a disproportionate share of campaign resources<\/a> have been spent here. Trump himself recently dropped in to serve customers at a local McDonalds.
Last time round, Biden squeaked to victory in Georgia by 49.5 per cent to 49.3 per cent \u2013 the narrowest margin in the country and breaking a quarter-century Republican streak. The Trump campaign\u2019s legal challenges, all of which have since been dropped or dismissed, became the centrepiece of his election interference claims.
Although the swelling population of Atlanta is believed to be tilting the state ever more to the left, the latest polling hands Trump the advantage.
Despite the Democrats\u2019 success in North Carolina\u2019s gubernatorial races, in presidential politics the state is reliably Republican: the GOP candidate has prevailed here in 12 of the last 14 presidential races.
But Trump\u2019s margin of victory fell from 3.6 per cent in 2016 to just 1.3 per cent in 2020. Entering the final days of the 2024 race, most pollsters find barely any space between them.
Michigan was the beating heart of the American auto industry until the 1970s. Economic woes have since precipitated population decline. The state\u2019s weight in the Electoral College is reducing as a result, but it remains consequential and unpredictable.
The state returned Barack Obama by a margin of 9.5 per cent in 2012, swung for Trump by 0.2 per cent in 2016, then back to blue for Biden by 2.8 per cent in 2020. In the state with the largest Arab population in the country, Harris has frequently found herself in hot water over the administration’s handling of the conflict in Gaza. Despite this, the latest pollsters hand her a slight lead.
Arizona\u2019s electoral college votes have gone to the Democrats just twice in presidential elections since 1952 \u2013 most recently for Biden in 2020, albeit by a margin of only 0.3 per cent. This result was also repeatedly and unsuccessfully challenged in the courts.
The burgeoning Latino community, which has grown from a quarter to a third of the population since 2000, is thought to be behind the state\u2019s emergence as one to watch. The latest polls show a state leaning convincingly towards Trump.
Until Trump\u2019s 2016 victory, Wisconsin voters opted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential contest between 1988 and 2012. But this overlooks how close the race usually is: Al Gore carried the state by just 5,700 votes in 2000, and John Kerry by just 11,000 votes in 2004. Biden\u2019s 2020 margin was just 0.7 per cent.
The decision to host the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee \u2013 Wisconsin\u2019s most populous city \u2013 was a calculated one. Nevertheless, Harris seems to have built up a small lead here.
Nevada has been a political bellwether for the past century, having been carried by the president-to-be in more elections than any other \u2013 Hillary Clinton a notable exception. The state is split between a deserted and conservative north, and the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, home to the bright lights of Las Vegas.
In 2020, Biden won Nevada by 2.5 per cent. Most recent pollsters, however, hand neither candidate an edge in the closing stages of the 2024 race.
The Telegraph relies on a variety of US polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight<\/a>. Only head-to-heads between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are considered.
Exclusively polls of registered voters feed into our national voting intention tracker, which is updated hourly. Our locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) model fits multiple regressions over subsets of five per cent of the data around each point.
Polls are also weighted based on the grade assigned to the pollster by FiveThirtyEight \u2013 taking into account past empirical accuracy and methodological transparency. Low-rated pollsters are ignored.
Sampling error is unavoidable \u2013 there is always a risk that the chosen population\u2019s views are not representative of the public as a whole, and as such an individual poll may not be an exact depiction of reality. This is why we take a poll of polls, and why we depict the 95 per cent confidence interval with shading.
For the running predictor of electoral college votes, we start by taking an average of the last five polls to come out of each state. Due to the lower availability of state-level polling, polls of all population groups \u2013 all adults, registered voters and likely voters \u2013 are considered.
If either candidate is polling five or more points ahead of the other, the state is deemed to be \u201csolidly\u201d on their side, and the corresponding number of electoral college votes is awarded to them. If their lead is between 0.5 and five points, the state is said to be \u201cleaning\u201d their way. Where margins are tighter, the state is considered a \u201ctossup\u201d. Total votes represent the sum of \u201csolidly\u201d and \u201cleaning\u201d states.
Our swing state tracker charts the latest five individual polls in each 2024 battleground.
Approval ratings are national net proportions of respondents approving, minus those disapproving. Joe Biden\u2019s current presidential approval and Harris\u2019s vice-presidential approval, is compared to Trump\u2019s on the same day of his term in office.
The favourability of vice-presidential picks JD Vance and Tim Walz is the sum of national \u201cVery favourable\u201d and \u201cSomewhat favourable\u201d response shares (and vice-versa for unfavourable views). The net figure is the subtraction of the two.<\/p>\n

source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Assassination attempts, the dropping out of the incumbent, criminal convictions and a record-breaking donation haul \u2013 the 2024 US presidential election cycle is a rollercoaster ride.\u00a0With just over a day to go until Americans head to the polls on November 5th, the Telegraph is tracking the race at every turn.Kamala Harris had long maintained a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":114115,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-114114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-us","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114114\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/114115"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}