{"id":113470,"date":"2024-10-30T03:29:21","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T03:29:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/how-this-us-election-could-change-state-of-the-world-bbc-com\/"},"modified":"2024-10-30T03:29:21","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T03:29:21","slug":"how-this-us-election-could-change-state-of-the-world-bbc-com","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/how-this-us-election-could-change-state-of-the-world-bbc-com\/","title":{"rendered":"How this US election could change state of the world – BBC.com"},"content":{"rendered":"

When US President Joe Biden walked through Kyiv in February 2023<\/a> on a surprise visit to show solidarity with Volodymyr Zelensky, his Ukrainian counterpart, air sirens were wailing. \u201cI felt something\u2026 more strongly than ever before,\u201d he later recalled. \u201cAmerica is a beacon to the world.\u201d
The world now waits to see who takes charge of this self-styled beacon after Americans make their choice in next week\u2019s presidential election. Will Kamala Harris carry on in Biden\u2019s footsteps with her conviction that in \u201cthese unsettled times, it is clear America cannot retreat\u201d? Or will it be Donald Trump with his hope that \u201cAmericanism, not globalism\u201d will lead the way?
We live in a world where the value of US global influence is under question. Regional powers are going their own way, autocratic regimes are making their own alliances, and the devastating wars in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere are raising uncomfortable questions about the value of Washington\u2019s role. But America matters by dint of its economic and military strength, and its major role in many alliances. I turned to some informed observers for their reflections on the global consequences of this very consequential election.
\u201cI cannot sugarcoat these warnings,\u201d says Rose Gottemoeller, Nato\u2019s former deputy secretary general. \u201cDonald Trump is Europe\u2019s nightmare, with echoes of his threat to withdraw from Nato in everyone\u2019s ears<\/a>.\u201d
Washington\u2019s defence spending amounts to two-thirds of the military budgets of Nato\u2019s 31 other members. Beyond Nato, the US spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, including China and Russia.
Trump boasts he\u2019s playing hardball to force other Nato countries to meet their spending targets, which is 2% of their GDP – only 23 of the member nations have hit this target in 2024. But his erratic statements still jar.
If Harris wins, Ms Gottemoeller believes \u201cNato will no doubt be in good Washington hands.\u201d But she has a warning there too. \u201cShe will be ready to continue working with Nato and the European Union to achieve victory in Ukraine, but she will not back off on [spending] pressure on Europe.\u201d
But Harris\u2019s team in the White House will have to govern with the Senate or the House, which could both soon be in Republican hands, and will be less inclined to back foreign wars than their Democratic counterparts. There\u2019s a growing sense that no matter who becomes president, pressure will mount on Kyiv to find ways out of this war as US lawmakers become increasingly reluctant to pass huge aid packages.
Whatever happens, Ms Gottemoeller says, \u201cI do not believe that Nato must fall apart.\u201d Europe will need to \u201cstep forward to lead.\u201d
The next US president will have to work in a world confronting its greatest risk of major power confrontation since the Cold War.
\u201cThe US remains the most consequential international actor in matters of peace and security\u201d, Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, tells me. She adds a caveat, \u201cbut its power to help resolve conflicts is diminished.\u201d
Wars are becoming ever harder to end. \u201cDeadly conflict is becoming more intractable, with big-power competition accelerating and middle powers on the rise,\u201d is how Ms Ero describes the landscape. Wars like Ukraine pull in multiple powers, and conflagrations such as Sudan pit regional players with competing interests against each other, and some more invested in war than in peace.
America is losing the moral high ground, Ms Ero says. \u201cGlobal actors notice that it applies one standard to Russia's actions in Ukraine, and another to Israel's in Gaza. The war in Sudan has seen terrible atrocities but gets treated as a second-tier issue.\u201d
A win by Harris, she says, \u201crepresents continuity with the current administration.\u201d If it\u2019s Trump, he \u201cmight give Israel an even freer hand in Gaza and elsewhere, and has intimated he could try to cut a Ukraine deal with Moscow over Kyiv\u2019s head.\u201d
On the Middle East, the Democratic candidate has repeatedly echoed Mr Biden\u2019s firm backing of Israel\u2019s \u201cright to defend itself.\u201d But she\u2019s also made a point of emphasising that \u201cthe killing of innocent Palestinians has to stop.\u201d
Trump has also declared it\u2019s time to \u201cget back to peace and stop killing people.\u201d But he\u2019s reportedly told the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to \u201cdo what you have to do.\u201d
The Republican contender prides himself on being a peacemaker. \u201cI will have peace in the Middle East, and soon,\u201d he vowed in an interview with Saudi Arabia\u2019s Al Arabiya TV on Sunday night.
He\u2019s promised to expand the 2020 Abraham Accords<\/a>. These bilateral agreements normalised relations between Israel and a few Arab states, but were widely seen to have sidelined the Palestinians and ultimately contributed to the current unprecedented crisis.
On Ukraine, Trump never hides his admiration for strongmen like Russia\u2019s Vladimir Putin. He\u2019s made it clear he wants to end the war in Ukraine, and with it the US\u2019s hefty military and financial support. \u201cI\u2019ll get out. We gotta get out,\u201d he insisted in a recent rally.
In contrast, Harris has said: \u201cI have been proud to stand with Ukraine. I will continue to stand with Ukraine. And I will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war.\u201d
But Ms Ero worries that, no matter who\u2019s elected, things could get worse in the world.
\u201cThe biggest shock to the global economy for decades.\u201d That\u2019s the view of leading China scholar Rana Mitter regarding Trump\u2019s proposed 60 percent tariffs on all imported Chinese goods.
Imposing steep costs on China, and many other trading partners, has been one of Trump\u2019s most persistent threats in his \u201cAmerica first\u201d approach. But Trump also lauds what he sees as his own strong personal connection with President Xi Jinping. He told the Wall Street Journal\u2019s editorial board he wouldn\u2019t have to use military force if Beijing moved to blockade Taiwan because the Chinese leader \u201crespects me and he knows I\u2019m [expletive] crazy.\u201d<\/a>
But both leading Republicans and Democrats are hawkish. Both see Beijing as being bent on trying to eclipse America as the most consequential power.
But Mr Mitter, a British historian who holds the ST Lee Chair in US-Asia relations at Harvard\u2019s Kennedy School, sees some differences. With Ms Harris he says, \u201crelations would likely develop in a linear fashion from where they are now.\u201d If Trump wins, it\u2019s a more \u201cfluid scenario.\u201d For example, on Taiwan, Mr Mitter points to Trump\u2019s ambivalence about whether he would come to the defence of an island far from America.
China\u2019s leaders believe both Harris and Trump will be tough. Mr Mitter sees it as \u201ca small group of establishment types favour Harris as \u2018better the opponent you know.\u2019 A significant minority see Trump as a businessman whose unpredictability might just mean a grand bargain with China, however unlikely that seems.\u201d
America and… the Middle East<\/b>
The latest episode of the Global Story looks at what a Trump or Harris presidency could mean for violence in Israel, Gaza and the surrounding region.
Listen now on BBC Sounds<\/a>. If you are outside the UK, listen wherever you get your podcasts<\/a>.
\u201cThe US election is hugely consequential not just for its citizens but for the whole world because of the pressing imperative of the climate and nature crisis,\u201d says Mary Robinson, chair of the Elders, a group of world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela, and former president of Ireland and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
\u201cEvery fraction of a degree matters to avert the worst impacts of climate change and prevent a future where devastating hurricanes like Milton are the norm,\u201d she added.
But as Hurricanes Milton and Helene raged, Trump derided environmental plans and policies to confront this climate emergency as \u201cone of the greatest scams of all time.\u201d Many expect him to pull out of the 2015 Paris climate agreement as he did in his first term.
However, Ms Robinson believes Trump cannot stop the momentum now gathering steam. \u201cHe cannot halt the US energy transition and roll back the billions of dollars in green subsidies… nor can he stop the indefatigable non-federal climate movement.\u201d
She also urged Harris, who still hasn\u2019t fleshed out her own stance, to step up \u201cto show leadership, build on the momentum of recent years, and spur other major emitters to pick up the pace.\u201d
\u201cThe outcome of the US election holds immense significance, given the unparalleled influence the United States wields, not just through its military and economic might, but through its potential to lead with moral authority on the global stage,\u201d says Martin Griffiths, a veteran conflict mediator, who, until recently, was the UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator.
He sees greater light if Harris wins, and says that \u201ca return to Trump\u2019s presidency marked by isolationism and unilateralism, offers little but a deepening of global instability.\u201d
But he has criticism, too, for the Biden-Harris administration, citing its \u201chesitancy\u201d over the deteriorating situation in the Middle East.
Aid agency bosses have repeatedly condemned Hamas\u2019s murderous October 7th assault on Israeli civilians. But they\u2019ve also repeatedly called on the US to do much more to end the profound suffering of civilians in Gaza as well as in Lebanon.
Biden and his top officials continually called for more aid to flow into Gaza, and did make a difference at times. But critics say the aid, and the pressure, was never enough. A recent warning that some vital military assistance could be cut pushed the decision until after the US elections.
The US is the single largest donor when it comes to the UN system. In 2022, it provided a record $18.1bn (\u00a313.9bn).
But in Trump\u2019s first term, he axed funding for several UN agencies and pulled out of the World Health Organisation. Other donors scrambled to fill the gaps \u2013 which is what Trump wanted to happen.
But Griffths still believes America is an indispensable power.
\u201cIn a time of global conflict and uncertainty, the world longs for the US to rise to the challenge of responsible, principled leadership… We demand more. We deserve more. And we dare to hope for more.\u201d
BBC InDepth<\/i><\/a> is the new home on the website and app for the best analysis and expertise from our top journalists. Under a distinctive new brand, we\u2019ll bring you fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions, and deep reporting on the biggest issues to help you make sense of a complex world. And we\u2019ll be showcasing thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. We\u2019re starting small but thinking big, and we want to know what you think – you can send us your feedback by clicking on the button below.<\/i>
Harris delivered her closing argument to voters at the Ellipse in Washington DC on Tuesday night.
A sealed bin and bag of ballots fell out of an election worker's truck and were later found by a passing car.
Puerto Ricans have said the joke Tony Hinchcliffe made at Trump\u2019s Sunday rally was \u201cdisrespectful\u201d and \u201cracist\u201d.
Police and firefighter crews responded to a fire inside a ballot drop box in the early hours of Monday.
At Madison Square Garden arena, we asked what 'make America great again' really means.
Loomis has apologised for the incident, calling it a "mishap" in an Instagram video.
The BBC's analysis editor examines what happened in 2020 and how the Republican might react if he were to lose again.
The singer is the latest superstar entertainer to endorse Kamala Harris.
Rogan is expected to host former President Donald Trump on his "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast.
The president made the comments during a Democratic Party headquarters visit in New Hampshire on Tuesday.
The rapper himself introduced the former US president at a presidential campaign rally in Detroit.
Video captures the moment a car boot is opened revealing dozens of allegedly stolen campaign yard posters.
The BBC's Lily Jamali explains the backstory behind the former president's campaign stunt.
Kristine Fishell was the second winner of Musk\u2019s giveaway at a town hall event in Pennsylvania on Sunday night.
The US presidential candidates continued to campaign across key swing states on Sunday.
Two Pennsylvania farmers have been targeted by false claims and threats after appearing in a Kamala Harris advert.
The event has historically featured the exchange of jabs between presidential candidates.
This is the reality for American astronauts Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore who will be voting from space.
When asked if he'd spoken to Putin since leaving office, the former US president said: "If I did, it's a smart thing".
The BBC's Nada Tawfik reports from the battleground state, where officials say record numbers turned out to cast their ballots.
The Democratic presidential candidate delivers her final message a week before election day.
Thousands of asylum applicants are wondering what impact the outcome could have on their lives.
The accounts are part of pro-Trump and pro-Harris networks sharing each other\u2019s content multiple times a day.
An in-depth look at the polls and what they can and can\u2019t tell us about who will win the White House.
But the Republican distances himself from a comic who described Puerto Rico as "an island of garbage\u201d.
Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved.\u00a0\u00a0<\/i>The BBC <\/i>is not responsible for the content of external sites.<\/i>\u00a0Read about our approach to external linking.<\/b><\/a>
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When US President Joe Biden walked through Kyiv in February 2023 on a surprise visit to show solidarity with Volodymyr Zelensky, his Ukrainian counterpart, air sirens were wailing. \u201cI felt something\u2026 more strongly than ever before,\u201d he later recalled. \u201cAmerica is a beacon to the world.\u201dThe world now waits to see who takes charge of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":113471,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-113470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-world","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113470","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113470"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113470\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113470"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113470"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quixnet.net\/wpinstance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113470"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}