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A new stage of the World Cup has begun: the knockout rounds.
And that means new countries — and their legions of fans — are coming to Gillette Stadium. The action kicks off with a Round of 32 match between Germany and Paraguay today at 4:30 p.m. in Foxborough.
Here’s a quick primer to catch you up on the matchup, what’s next at “Boston Stadium” and the road ahead for the U.S. men’s national team.
Let’s start with Germany, who are heavy favorites in Monday’s match.
This is actually the first time the country has advanced out of the World Cup’s group stage since 2014 (when they won the whole thing). But they sealed qualification to the knockout rounds quickly with a (frankly rude) 7-1 beatdown of this World Cup’s smallest country, Curaçao, in their first game, and a 2-1 comeback against a young and talented Ivory Coast team. (They lost their final game 2-1 to Ecuador.)
Germany has a deep lineup of English Premier League and Bundesliga stars (Bayern Munich’s Jonathan Tah and Jamal Musiala, Liverpool’s Florian Wirtz and Arsenal’s Kai Havertz, to name a few). But so far, this tournament’s breakout player has been super-sub striker Deniz Undav, who had three goals and two assists in Germany’s first two games, despite playing about only a third of the minutes.
Two potential causes for concern: Germany’s starting defender Nico Schlotterbeck will miss the rest of the World Cup with an ankle injury. And the team’s 40-year-old recently unretired goalie Manuel Neuer hasn’t been his old (younger) self.
Off the field, the country’s breakout star has been “Freddy,” a somewhat mysterious German fan whose social media posts roadtripping across the U.S. for the World Cup have made him an online celebrity. And yes, it appears he has arrived in Boston.
You have to scroll pretty far down in FIFA’s rankings from Germany to find Paraguay.
This is their first World Cup since 2010, when the small South American country made an impressive run to the quarterfinals and nearly beat eventual champions Spain, if not for a missed call and a saved penalty kick.
After losing their opening game in this year’s tournament 4-1 to the U.S., Paraguay hasn’t allowed a goal. And that’s sort of their hallmark: defense. Centerback Gustavo Gómez, who captains the team (as well as his Brazilian club Palmeiras) is “considered by many to be the best defender in South America,” according to The Guardian.
It’s the other end of the pitch where they struggle. Of all 48 teams in this World Cup, Paraguay’s “expected goals” metric of 1.25 was the second lowest, above only dismal Tunisia. Julio Enciso, an attacking midfielder with experience in the top English and French leagues, is the team’s main playmaker and assisted both of Paraguay’s two group stage goals.
Fans may also recognize Miguel Almirón from stints at Newcastle United and MLS’s Atlanta FC. He’s back for today’s game after a suspension for becoming the first player to get a red card at the World Cup under a new rule against players covering their mouth while talking to an opponent.
Boston’s final World Cup match could be a who’s who of trophy contenders.
The winner of today’s Germany-Paraguay game will face the winner of tomorrow’s France-Sweden game on July 4 in Philadelphia. And the winner of that game will be back in Foxborough on July 9 for the quarterfinals. The other half of that quarterfinals game will be either the Netherlands or Morocco, who play in the Round of 32 tonight, or tournament co-host Canada, who won the first knockout stage game Sunday against South Africa.
That means we could host a rekindling of the longstanding Germany-Netherlands soccer rivalry. Or a 2022 World Cup semifinals rematch between France and Morocco. Maybe even a game with Canada making a Cinderella run and thousands of fans traveling down over the border. (The biggest question: If the Netherlands make it, where will Boston host the Orange Army’s big dance parties?)
After winning their group, the U.S. men’s national team will play Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 on Wednesday night (8 p.m. ET) in San Francisco.
The U.S. should win this game. Bosnia and Herzegovina came into the tournament ranked 62nd and is considered one of the weakest teams to advance to the elimination stage.
But underestimate the Balkan team at your own peril. Bosnia knocked out Italy in World Cup qualifiers, played Canada to a tough draw on the co-hosts’ home soil and sealed a third-place berth into the knockout rounds with a 3-1 over Qatar last week.
Their lineup features several tough, experienced players. Leading the frontline is 40-year-old striker, captain and Bosnian legend Edin Džeko, who helped Manchester City win two English Premier League titles, and has led the German and Italian leagues in goals during his career. And the defense is anchored by 33-year-old centerback Sead Kolašinac, who played for Arsenal for several years before moving on to the French and Italian leagues.
Bosnia’s lineup also includes a familiar face for Boston-area soccer fans. Esmir Bajraktarević, a 21-year-old winger, came up through the New England Revolution’s academy and played three seasons for the Revs, before signing with the Dutch club PSV Eindhoven. Bajraktarević was born in Wisconsin to Bosnian refugees who fled the Srebrenica genocide and got the tongue-in-cheek nickname “Milwaukee Messi” while playing for the Revolution. WUWM has more on Bajraktarević’s backstory here.
Next rounds
If the U.S. beats Bosnia, they’ll face a tougher challenge in the Round of 16: Belgium or Senegal.
It would be a potential revenge match against Belgium, who eliminated the U.S. from the 2014 World Cup in the same round. While Belgium’s so-called “golden generation” is now in its twilight years, the team is 10th in FIFA’s rankings and won Group G, despite some early unconvincing results. Meanwhile, Senegal is one of Africa’s best teams and recently won the continent’s AFCON tournament — but the title was controversially stripped from them.
Ironically, the U.S. also recently played both teams in pre-tournament friendlies. In March, they got blown out 5-2 against Belgium in what coach Mauricio Pochettino called a “reality check” (though it’s worth noting they were playing with a mostly different backline compared to now). More recently, the U.S. beat Senegal by a score of 3-2 in one of their final pre-tournament games in late May.
If they advance to the quarterfinals, the U.S. would likely then see a European soccer power like Spain, Portugal or Croatia. But now, we’re getting ahead of ourselves.
Nik DeCosta-Klipa is a senior editor for newsletters at WBUR.
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