Researchers at the organization predict disposal firms and recyclers will have more than 3.8 billion metric tons of discarded materials to handle in 2050—or 50 percent more than today.
By Brian Taylor, Senior Editor
A report issued by the Washington-based World Bank Group, also known as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, estimates the global population in 2050 will generate an additional 50 percent annually of discarded materials.
The report, titled “What a Waste 3.0,” is an update of previous assessments on the world’s waste, recycling and landfill diversion practices that last was updated in 2018.
“While the 2018 ‘What a Waste 2.0’ report estimated that the world would generate 2.59 billion metric tons of waste by 2030, the most current figures show that 2.56 billion metric tons were already produced by 2022,” the report’s five co-authors write.
“Under a business-as-usual scenario, global waste generation is expected to grow from 2.56 billion metric tons in 2022 to 3.86 billion metric tons by 2050, a 50 percent increase,” write co-authors Ed Cook, Kremena Ionkova, Perinaz Bhada-Tata, Sonakshi Yadav and Frank van Woerden.
In the 384-page report, the researchers examine the differences in waste handling practices in different parts of the world, including the presence or lack of recycling and other diversion options.
The report’s executive summary indicates that though nearly 100 percent of municipal solid waste (MSW) in high-income countries is managed in “controlled facilities,” waste continues to be “openly dumped or not collected at all, a challenge most acute in low-income countries and rapidly growing regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.”
Regarding global opportunities facing the waste management and recycling sectors, the researchers found that “only 3 percent of waste in low-income countries is managed in controlled facilities, with most waste either uncollected or disposed of in dump sites.”
When nations with developed and developing economies are combined, landfills remain the most common method of waste management, accounting for 29 percent of all waste outcomes currently, according to the researchers.
That is followed by a combination of landfill diversion techniques that includes material recovery facilities (MRF) for recycling, composting and anaerobic digestion, which combined to handle 21 percent of discarded materials annually.
World Bank says 20 percent of discarded materials annually are directed to waste conversion and waste-to-energy facilities. That leaves the remaining 30 percent of waste generated worldwide—more than 700 million metric tons annually—going uncollected or dumped at nonengineered open sites.
Regarding waste composition, food and garden waste accounts for the majority (52 percent) of MSW in low-income countries while, higher income countries see discarded material streams that are “dominated by dry recyclable materials, textiles and waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE),” the researchers say.
The report says discarded plastic “is of significant concern,” calculating that globally nearly 29 percent of all plastic waste—or 93 million metric tons per year—is mismanaged.
“Middle-income countries are the leading source of unmanaged plastic waste, generating 87 percent of the global total [with] sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific [producing] the largest quantities of unmanaged plastic waste,” the researchers say.
In the developing world, “The case for effective waste management is compelling as the costs of inaction considerably exceed costs required for sound waste systems,” according to World Bank. “Achieving universal waste collection and eliminating open dumping are essential to prevent plastics from leaking into the environment.”
Throughout the world, the report concludes that “opportunities are substantial and span both upstream and downstream interventions for plastic pollution. Upstream, redesigning products, reducing unnecessary packaging and adopting alternative materials can prevent plastic waste at its source.”
The full "What a Waste 3.0" report and the executive summary can be downloaded from the World Bank website.