Strikes on eve of US midterms reportedly target surface-to-air missiles being used against US assets
The US launched limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island late on Monday, hours after the vice-president, JD Vance, said he was optimistic that diplomatic efforts to end the war were moving in the right direction.
The strikes, disclosed by Iranians on social media and confirmed by US Central Command (Centcom), came on the eve of crucial midterm elections in which Donald Trump’s Republican party is expected to be punished by voters. Diplomatic mediators believe it will be clear within two days whether the basis for continued indirect talks between the US and Iran exists.
The US tried to downplay the significance of the attacks by stressing they were limited and not the precursor of a much-anticipated major assault on Iran that Trump has promised after the midterms if the US adjudges Iran’s nuclear program continues as a threat to the west.
The US described the strikes as defensive in nature, aimed at missile batteries from which Iranian attacks on US planes had been mounted the day before.
Inside Iran, blame was initially placed on Israel, but later it was conceded that the US was responsible. Israel itself insisted it had no role in the attacks. Similar military exchanges have happened at least three times since the cessation of major hostilities, as the US and Iran jostle for control of the strait.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, referring to the overnight US strikes, said: “We are still in a state of war. The aggression against Iran has not ended in our view, and until the military aggression is completely and permanently terminated Iran has the right to legitimate defence.”
He added Iran was not waiting for the results from the midterms to adjust its negotiating position, saying: “We do not tie our foreign policies to the elections of other countries.”
Iran would like to see Trump weakened in those elections, but recognises the two-month interlude between the elections and the start of the newly elected Congress represents the point of maximum tension.
Chief negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf made no direct mention of the attacks during an address to parliament, but said any miscalculation by the US would lead to an unpredictable Iranian response. In common with other Iranian leaders, he suggested the attacks would extend to US bases in Europe. Maps of Nato bases in Europe have appeared on the front page of the more conservative newspapers, implying they will be targets in any war.
The greater concern in Tehran appears to be the apparent inability of Qatari mediators to bridge the gap between Iran and the US over the upfront commitments Iran must make to end its nuclear program irreversibly, a phrase used by JD Vance.
It was Vance, in a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of the supreme national security council, who proposed the restart of talks, but so far those talks have not led to any direct contact between the US and Iranian sides.
Iran has offered to lift the blockade on the strait of Hormuz within two days of the US lifting economic constraints on Iran. Once those two days, elapse Iran would also enter into talks about its nuclear program, but Tehran has refused to give upfront concessions either about the return of UN inspectors to visit Iran’s bombed nuclear sites or to agree to ship the 400kg of highly enriched uranium to a third country. The most likely compromise is a down-blending of the stockpile inside Iran under international supervision, and with an external guarantor, such as China.
Esmail Baghaei, the foreign ministry spokesman, struck a pessimistic note saying the US attitude to Iran’s nuclear program was “the biggest and most costly lie of the century”, and was fundamentally based on having a problem with Iran as an idea and historical entity.
Qatar said its mediation was continuing, and there was a very high level of coordination by countries in the region. Most of these Gulf states know they will be attacked by Iran if the US mounts an assault, and are desperate to avoid further damage to their fraying economies. Majed al-Ansari, the spokesman for the Qatar foreign ministry, insisted both sides remained committed to the process.
Speaking to Fox News hours before the polls opened in the US on Tuesday, Trump continued to play down the significance of the conflict and its effect on the US economy.
“There’s no war raging. It could happen if they don’t make a deal, but they want to make a deal very badly and there’s a very good chance we make a deal.”
However, he said the US might still “have to go after Pickaxe Mountain” – referring to a fortified underground site in central Iran that is suspected to be a nuclear facility – but said it would not be a “big deal” and could be done in “one hour”.
Speaking from Washington in his closing message of the midterms campaign, Trump hailed a sharp drop in oil prices, as his administration touted renewed diplomatic efforts being made to end the war. Rising petrol prices caused by the war have become a signature issue of the midterm elections.