JD Vance, Donald Trump’s vice president, has shared what he thinks he’ll say to Vladimir Putin today. Ivor Bennett, our Moscow correspondent, explains the Kremlin’s likely approach to the conversation. Follow the latest below and catch up with our last Ukraine Q&A.
Monday 19 May 2025 15:20, UK
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Vladimir Putin is going into this phone call with confidence, according to reports.
He is self-assured that his forces can break through Ukraine’s defences and take full control of four regions by the end of the year, Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with the Russian president’s thinking.
This refers to the regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Luhansk, which Moscow has demanded Ukraine withdraw from in peace talks.
The Russian leader is ready for a protracted war to take the territory he wants, two other people close to the Kremlin said.
It means Putin is unlikely to offer any concessions to Trump.
Yet his confidence is at odds with the assessment of European officials, who told Bloomberg Russia lacks the capabilities to fulfill Putin’s goals.
This echoes the assessment of the Institute for the Study of War, which said Russia faces materiel, defence industrial, manpower, and economic issues that threaten Putin’s ability to continue the war in the long term.
Donald Trump is due to speak with Vladimir Putin over the phone any moment now.
Sky News defence and security analyst Michael Clarke expects the conversation will focus on arranging a summit.
A little earlier today, the White House said Trump was open to meeting the Russian leader.
But a meeting between the pair is not being prepared at the moment, Russian state media cited the Kremlin as saying.
Putin wants a summit quickly to “emerge from his pariah status” – but the sooner he’s brought to one, the more pressure he’ll be under to agree to a ceasefire, said Clarke.
“He will be trying to manipulate both the date and the modalities of any summit that he has with Trump to give him the maximum elbow room to keep on fighting.”
Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be waiting in the wings for a call with Trump afterwards.
Our US correspondent James Matthews has picked out two remarks coming from Washington in just the past hour that will “trouble” Kyiv.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, speaking to reporters in the past few minutes, was asked if Vladimir Putin is the “good or bad guy”.
“She wouldn’t give an answer to that,” Matthews said.
But something else to note – JD Vance’s remarks, which we reported minutes ago at 14.20.
“He said this: we realise there’s a bit of an impasse here [on the Ukraine war]. I think the president’s going to say to Vladimir Putin, ‘look, are you serious? Are you real about this?’
“Well, I think we already have Vladimir Putin’s answer on that one today, yesterday, the day before, and in the months before,” Matthews added, referring to consistent Russian strikes over Ukraine.
“So I would characterise the call, if that is the tenor of it… it would be too passive, I think, for Kyiv and other European capitals who are waiting for Donald Trump to push this forward,” Matthews said.
As the White House briefing ends, we’ve got an earlier update from another news conference.
Ursula von der Leyen has spoken about the EU’s plans for a €150bn (£126bn) fund to boost defence – as we reported at 9.29.
Known as Security Action for Europe – or SAFE – the fund will facilitate loans to EU members and certain other states, including Ukraine.
The European Commission president has just told reporters at a news conference that SAFE is “ready to go”.
“The SAFE instrument has now just been approved by all the institutions, so it’s ready to go,” she said.
“And therefore we have to work hard that we have the second step also negotiated. And then we’re going to be indeed ready to deliver.
“So it’s a question of, I hope, only a few weeks, and then we should be done.”
At the same news conference, European Council President Antonio Costa said he wishes “all the best” for Donald Trump’s call with Vladimir Putin, which is due to take place at 15.00 UK time.
“We have been very supportive of all President Trump’s efforts to stop this war,” he added.
Below video: Starmer greeting von der Leyen today
Karoline Leavitt has now given a little more detail on Donald Trump’s call with Vladimir Putin.
She’s said she “doesn’t want to get ahead of any conversations”, but did say Trump will call Volodymyr Zelenskyy after speaking with Putin.
“I think I can summarise the president’s foreign policy agenda with two words – America first,” she added.
“And that means putting the American people and the American taxpayer first.
“And that’s why the president is moving as quickly as he possibly can and working overtime to end these conflicts in both Israel and in Gaza and also the Russia-Ukraine war.”
She added: “You will hear directly from the president or me after those calls conclude today.”
Coming away from the news briefing at the White House briefly, we’ve just had an update from the US vice president.
JD Vance has just spoken out on the Ukraine war – warning if Russia is not “willing to engage” then “eventually, the US has to say this is not our war”.
He added Vladimir Putin – who is due to speak to Donald Trump in the next 40 minutes – “does not seem to know” how to get out of the war.
“We realise there’s a bit of an impasse here,” he told reporters as he prepared to depart Italy following his meeting with Pope Leo.
“And I think the president’s going to say to president Putin: ‘Look, are you serious? Are you real about this?'”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt is due to hold her regular news briefing now.
It comes an hour before Donald Trump’s scheduled call with Vladimir Putin.
You can watch live at the top of this page and we’ll bring you any text updates relevant to the war in Ukraine here.
Russian authorities have outlawed human rights group Amnesty International as an “undesirable organisation” (see 11.24).
That decision, announced by the Russian prosecutor general’s office, is just the latest crackdown on critics, journalists and activists.
In practice, these are the two key outcomes:
That second point even means anyone caught sharing Amnesty content on social media could face time behind bars.
Amnesty is far from the first to fall foul of Russia, with the state’s list of “undesirable organisations” covering 223 entities.
These include US-funded broadcaster RFE/RL and international environmental organisation Greenpeace.
Why Amnesty?
Amnesty International, launched in 1961, documents and reports human rights violations around the globe and campaigns for the release of those deemed unjustly imprisoned.
It has published reports on Russia’s war in Ukraine, accusing Moscow of crimes against humanity.
Domestically, it has spoken out against the Kremlin’s crackdown on dissent, which has swept up thousands of people in recent years.
Amnesty has not commented on the move yet.
Russia, meanwhile, accused Amnesty of “doing everything possible to intensify the military confrontation in the region”.
“They justify the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis, call for an increase in their funding, and insist on the political and economic isolation of our country,” Russia said.
The “neo-Nazi” accusation is seen in the West and other countries as baseless propaganda.
The UK and EU have agreed a post-Brexit reset deal, with a summit in London today described as “historic” by the bloc.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
According to the European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, this represents a boost for Kyiv.
That’s because the deal also reinforces cooperation in security and defence, which she said is the “first step” towards UK participation in Europe’s defence investment programme.
“This will create new opportunities, of course, for our defence industries and open the option for stronger, more coordinated support also for Ukraine.”
By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
Judging by his spokesman’s comments, it appears Vladimir Putin has no intention of giving any meaningful ground in his conversation with Donald Trump later today.
“If US mediation helps achieve the goals of the SMO [special military operation] by peaceful means, Russia would prefer this,” was the key line from Dmitry Peskov’s statements to Russian reporters earlier.
It makes it clear that Russia’s goals haven’t changed – that Ukraine never joins NATO and that Russia keeps the four Ukrainian territories it occupies.
And it’s saying that either Kyiv (and the US) gives those things up willingly, or Moscow takes them by force.
30-day truce silence
I think Putin will have to give Trump something, though, or the appearance of a concession at least.
All the pressure now is on Moscow, and I think the Kremlin does want to keep the White House on side to ensure that US-Russia relations continue to soften.
But I doubt it’ll be a full ceasefire that Russia says Ukraine would use to rearm and will only agree to one if Western military support to Ukraine stops.
What’s more, it’s two months since Trump proposed a 30-day truce.
Putin hasn’t agreed to one yet, so why would he now?
Climbdown planned?
The call between the leaders comes after an uptick in aggression from Moscow.
Sunday saw Russia’s largest drone attack of the war so far, and Ukraine also claimed that Russia was going to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile yesterday.
It could be a way to intimidate the West, and assert Russia’s dominance.
Or it could be a way for Putin to give himself something to climb down from, and then sell as a concession to Trump.
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