Ukrainian troops have launched an attack against a Russian border region with six US long-range missiles, Moscow has said. It comes after Vladimir Putin approved an updated doctrine lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.
Tuesday 19 November 2024 15:45, UK
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Sky News defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke has been discussing the developments of the past 24 hours.
He says Western intelligence would likely have been used in any strikes on Russia by Ukraine using US long-range missiles.
“Western intelligence is not required, but it’s very helpful because you can be very precise,” he says.
“Western intelligence assets can place Russian forces and Russian ammunition stores, even if they’re moving around – ammunition vehicles or convoys and so on.
“And the Ukrainians can’t really do that for themselves, so they can get intelligence from us. And then some of the weapons that Ukrainians use do use Western technology.
“So undoubtedly – we’ve never made any bones about that.”
As detailed earlier, the missiles targeted a military depot in Karachev, Bryansk – which is more than 100 miles north of Kursk.
Initial reports that the US had authorised the use of their missiles for strikes on Russia had suggested they were restricted to use in the Kursk region, where Ukraine holds some territory after an incursion into Russia in August.
Professor Clarke said: “According to the Ukrainians, they were targeting the 146 Logistic Support Unit, which almost certainly is ammunition.
“And that’s about 200km away from Kursk, 120 odd miles, well within the range of the attack.
“And, quite likely that six were fired. I find it very hard to believe that the Russians would have bought five of them down. They might have put one of them down.
“But I don’t know of any defensive systems that can really deal with six ATACMS inbound.
“These are ballistic missiles. It’s like trying to get an artillery shell while it drops on you from a great height. It’s very, very difficult.
“But we’ll see, more evidence will come out. So undoubtedly, this is the sort of thing the Ukrainians want to do, to go deeper inside Russia, not really deep inside, but deeper inside to affect the logistics, the supplies, particularly the ammunition that’s being brought forward into the Kursk region.
“So the Ukrainians will argue, look, this is all about Kursk.”
Olaf Scholz has spoken about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with China’s President Xi Jinping, saying it was important the two economic powers discussed difficult topics.
“It is important for us to talk about major problems and challenges,” the German chancellor said after holding talks with Xi on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in Brazil.
“Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, for example, or dangerous situations we see elsewhere in the world.
“No one should have to fear their neighbours. That is a very central principle of peace in the world, which we are committed to,” Scholz added, in a possible reference to Ukraine or Taiwan.”
China views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory.
By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
So what will Russia do now? Will Vladimir Putin really reach for the red button?
In theory, he could. After approving changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine earlier today, he does now have that option.
In what was a thinly veiled warning to the West, he lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike, allowing Moscow to respond with nukes if it’s attacked by any state using conventional weapons. That includes missiles, aircraft, even drones.
Moscow now also formally considers an assault on its territory by a non-nuclear power (read Ukraine) that is supported by a nuclear power (read America) to be a joint attack.
It’s not the first time we’ve heard these threats. And now after months of weighing them, Washington is finally calling Moscow’s bluff.
There are compelling reasons as to why Russia won’t follow through. Its main ally, China, won’t tolerate it for starters. More importantly, though, Moscow is unlikely to risk incurring the wrath of the new White House administration.
The signs so far are that Donald Trump will stick to his promise and pursue a swift conclusion to the conflict, which would likely be in Russia’s favour.
Launching a nuclear weapon now will almost certainly derail that.
Russia’s foreign minister has said attacks on the country’s Bryansk region by Ukraine with US missiles are a clear signal that the West wants to escalate the conflict.
“Without the Americans, it is impossible to use these high-tech missiles, as Putin has repeatedly said,” Sergei Lavrov said.
Lavrov said he hoped Moscow’s new nuclear doctrine, in which Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike, would be attentively read.
He added that Germany’s decision not to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine so far was “a responsible position”.
Lavrov also said Russia would do everything possible to prevent the breakout of nuclear war.
Asked for his response to Russia ramping up a nuclear threat, Sir Keir Starmer has said “the quickest way for this conflict to end is for Russia to stop”.
Speaking to the Sky News in Rio de Janeiro, the prime minister said: “It’s days 1,000 of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of sacrifice by Ukraine.
“It’s impacted the rest of the world including the United Kingdom.
“I’ve been clear throughout that we must give Ukraine the support that is needed for as long as it’s needed
“The simplest way to end this conflict is for Russia to stop the aggression.”
He refused to be drawn on the significance of Washington’s decision to let Ukraine use US missiles for strikes into Russia.
By James Sillars, business and economics reporter
There’s been a walk, rather than stampede, for safe haven assets as tensions between Russia and the West intensify over the Ukraine war.
The dollar rose against major rivals such as the yen, euro and pound and gold costs jumped.
That was after Russia updated its so-called nuclear doctrine that lowered the threshold needed for tactical nuclear weapons to be deployed.
It was a response to the US conditionally allowing Ukraine to fire US-made long-range missiles into Russia.
Russia has since claimed that it was targeted with such a missile.
Financial markets are jittery over escalation, with the pound losing 0.3% versus the greenback to stand at $1.26.
Yields on government bonds – the effective interest rates demanded by investors to hold government debt – were up globally.
Both Brent and US crude oil prices were down though despite the widespread focus on Russia.
Market experts said the resumption of production at Western Europe’s largest oil field had offset the immediate concerns over conflict in Europe.
Brent crude was trading at $73 a barrel, down 0.3%.
Spot gold was 0.9% higher at 2,635 per ounce.
While most stock markets on the continent were down by more than 1%, with financial stocks leading the declines, the FTSE 100 was 0.4% lower at 8.077.
A selection of images have been released today that show Russian forces firing a series of weapons at Ukrainian positions and launching drones.
The pictures show troops in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.
The foreign ministers of the UK, Germany, France, Poland, Italy and Spain have released a joint statement this morning, saying Russia’s systematic attacks on European security architecture are “unprecedented in their variety and scale”.
“Moscow’s escalating hybrid activities against NATO and EU countries are unprecedented in their variety and scale, creating significant security risk,” the ministers said, reaffirming the enduring role of a strong and united NATO.
Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski followed the statement by warning Russia that it would close the rest of its consulates in Poland if Moscow did not stop committing acts of sabotage in Europe.
“I have closed the consulate in Poznan,” he told a news conference.
“If they do not stop, we will close the rest.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told Ukraine’s parliament that the war had reached a decisive moment, as he urged citizens to stay “resilient” and unveiled plans for a huge ramp-up in production of strike weapons.
The president’s hour-long speech to mark 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion saw him vow that Ukraine would not trade its sovereignty or relinquish its right to its territories, while ruling out new elections until peace is achieved.
“At this stage of the war, it is being decided who will prevail – whether us over the enemy, or the enemy over us Ukrainians… and Europeans, and everyone in the world who wants to live freely and not be subject to a dictator,” he said.
Zelenskyy outlined what he called a “resilience plan” for the country as a domestic foil to the “victory plan” he pitched to Western allies earlier in the autumn, and said it was needed to force Russia to negotiate an end to the war in good faith.
Though he said the full details of the plan would be revealed later in the year, it features steps to stabilise the front line, support military innovation and arms production as well as measures to shore up national unity and cultural identity.
“Unity is the first point of our internal resilience plan,” he said.
Zelenskyy added that Ukraine would produce at least 30,000 long-range drones next year, a weapons system that Kyiv has used to narrow the gap in strike capabilities with Russia and to strike targets deep inside its much larger, eastern neighbour.
Kyiv has sought to beef up military industrial production since Russia launched its February 2022 invasion, and Zelenskyy said 40 foreign arms manufacturers were already working in the Ukrainian weapons production sector.
Ukraine also aims to produce at least 3,000 cruise missile and missile-drones, he said, without providing a timeframe.
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