A Black Sea ceasefire has been agreed by Ukraine and Russia after both sides had separate talks with US officials in Saudi Arabia over the past two days. The White House also says the US “will help restore Russia’s access to the world market” for certain products. Follow the latest here.
Tuesday 25 March 2025 16:05, UK
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There is perhaps a growing Ukrainian distrust of the US if you read between the lines of the agreement, says US correspondent James Matthews.
“I am struck by Ukraine talking about how it would ‘welcome the good offices of third countries with a view toward supporting the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements’,” says Matthews.
This distrust would be down to the behaviour of Donald Trump “leaning towards Moscow” and the behaviour of “the likes of Steve Witkoff and the point men involved with Russia”.
Envoy Steve Witkoff has been “roundly criticised” by even right-wing US media for how he has “waxed lyrical” about his meetings with Putin and talked “in Russian terms” about its philosophy and the way forward, Matthews says.
Talks between Russia, the US and Ukraine in Riyadh in recent days have centred on the Black Sea – and today we’ve finally brought you news of an agreement.
The basis of the negotiations was a deal to secure shipping there that collapsed more than 18 months ago.
What was the Black Sea grain deal?
In recent days, we have covered here how Moscow was said to be keen to revive a UN-backed deal that allows Ukraine to export grain from its ports without being attacked, known as the Black Sea grain initiative.
The deal was negotiated in July 2022 between Turkey, the UN and Russia as a way of ensuring that Ukraine, one of the breadbaskets of the world, could keep exporting grain via its southern ports.
How did deal benefit Russia?
The deal also allowed for greater Russian agricultural exports, but Moscow pulled out of the initiative in July 2023 after accusing the West of reneging on this part of the agreement.
This meant Russia stopped granting safe passage to cargo ships going to and from Ukraine, and the country’s grain exports subsequently slumped.
Since then, though, Russia’s priorities have changed.
Why Russia is happy to agree to ceasefire at sea
Under today’s ceasefire at sea, Russia would once again be able to export farm produce and fertiliser through the Black Sea, getting relief from sanctions imposed by Western countries.
The US even referred to helping Russia access the world market again for agricultural products, in its statement earlier.
Our security and defence analyst Michael Clarke has also explained today that Russia is only agreeing to deals in its favour – and it is keen to get its equipment out of the Black Sea.
Russia is happy to continue fighting on land, where it is slowly making gains, while signing up to something that protects its ships at sea – where Ukraine has been growing in confidence and damaging Russian vessels.
Russia will be quite happy dragging the US through peace talks without making any meaningful concessions, says security analyst Michael Clarke.
Today’s outcome is another, like the 30-day energy infrastructure ceasefire, that the US “can boast about” that doesn’t massively change anything on the ground for Ukraine.
“The Russians will be quite happy about that because they’ll just keep going down more and more rabbit holes and they’ll present little gains for the US,” he explains.
“But they won’t address the central issue,” he says.
No real deal can be agreed unless Donald Trump starts putting meaningful pressure on Vladimir Putin.
“Unless the Americans are prepared to pressure Russia as opposed to just keeping offering them more advantages, the war will just go on.”
He also says Trump will stay interested until it “gets difficult”, at which point he’ll “just go onto something else”.
“He’s a disrupter, but when disruption becomes hard to follow through, he goes on to the next topic, and I think that’s what will happen.”
Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov say it has agreed to “ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea”.
This comes after the White House said Russia has agreed to safe navigation in the Black Sea.
Ukraine and US delegations have been holding talks in Saudi Arabia today.
Umerov adds Kyiv holds that any movement by Russian military vessels outside of eastern part of the Black Sea will constitute violation of the spirit of this agreement.
“In this case Ukraine will have full right to exercise right to self-defence.”
In similar wording to the statement issued by the White House, he adds: “All parties agreed to develop measures for implementing the Presidents’ agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Ukraine and Russia.”
Some new details are just coming out of the White House now.
They have said the US and Russia have agreed to safe navigation in the Black Sea, which had been a key focus of talks this week.
Additionally, they agreed to work together on measures banning strikes on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine.
Significantly, Washington will also help to restore Russia’s access to global markets for agricultural and fertiliser exports, the White House added. Where this leaves Western sanctions against Russia is unclear at this stage.
With Ukraine, the US said it has agreed it will remain committed to returning forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
The White House statement on Russia in full:
The United States and Russia have agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.
The United States will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.
The United States and Russia agreed to develop measures for implementing President Trump’s and President Putin’s agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine.
The United States and Russia welcome the good offices of third countries with a view toward supporting the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements.
The United States and Russia will continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace. The United States reiterated President Donald J. Trump’s imperative that the killing on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict must stop, as the necessary step toward achieving an enduring peace settlement.
To that end, the United States will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides to achieve a peaceful resolution, in line with the agreements made in Riyadh.
The United States expresses gratitude to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for his leadership and hospitality in once again facilitating these important discussions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Ukraine’s security agency has detained a serviceman it’s accused of helping Russia.
The SBU said this “mole” worked to give away Ukrainian soldiers’ positions during the fighting over Kursk, the Russian region Kyiv’s forces invaded last summer.
Since then, Russia has taken back much of its territory, particularly in recent weeks.
“While at the front, the ‘mole’ was preparing coordinates for the aggressor’s missile and bomb attacks on the locations of Ukrainian troops,” the SBU said.
It said the man had been recruited by Moscow’s GRU intelligence service through social media messaging app Telegram, where he had posted comments in support of Russia.
According to a US intelligence report, Russia is working on a new satellite to carry a nuclear weapon.
Such a weapon could have “devastating consequences” for both the US and the world, the Annual Threat Assessment by the US intelligence community added.
It also added the war in Ukraine has given Russia a chance to learn a “wealth of lessons” about Western weapons and intelligence.
While Moscow will not be able to achieve “total victory”, the report added momentum remains on their side in the Ukraine war.
For context: Military analyst Michael Clarke explained in our live Q&A earlier that nuclear war is not any more likely now than it was before Russia’s invasion.
This is partly because nuclear weapons wouldn’t give Russia any advantage on the battlefield. You can catch up on his insight in the link below…
We’re back now from our live Q&A with Michael Clarke – link in the post below.
You can catch up on a range of issues he addressed there, but we’ll share some insight with you here now, given there’s been so much focus on ceasefire talks in Saudi Arabia this week.
Asked if the return of a Black Sea deal would give Russia’s navy safe passage through waters, Clarke broke down what discussions have focused on – and why they’re likely to benefit Moscow more.
“The Russians are quite keen to do this because they want to get their stuff out,” he said.
“At the moment, they can’t get their stuff out of the Black Sea, because of the threat that the Ukrainians could pose to their ships.”
There are two issues now on the table in talks, Clarke said.
These are:
They are both more to Russia’s benefit than Ukraine’s, Clarke said.
“It is a very, very limited ceasefire – which gets more limited every day – of the two elements that the Russians most want,” he added.
“Because they’re the two elements that actually benefit them more than they benefit the Ukrainians.”
And with the US going for quick negotiations, in contrast to Russia’s “running-the-clock-down” approach, Clarke said it looks like Moscow is “giving the American team a complete run-around”.
“They’re giving them a lesson in tough diplomacy, and there are none tougher than the Russians when it comes to negotiating something on the Black Sea,” Clarke added.
And don’t overlook Turkey’s role in this, he said, as they control the waterway connecting the Black Sea to the rest of the world.
What is this Black Sea deal?
Moscow is said to be keen to revive a UN-backed deal that allows Ukraine to export grain from its ports without being attacked, known as the Black Sea grain initiative.
The deal was negotiated in July 2022 between Turkey, the UN and Russia as a way of ensuring that Ukraine, one of the breadbaskets of the world, could keep exporting grain from its southern ports.
The deal also allowed for greater Russian agricultural exports, but Moscow pulled out of the initiative in July 2023 after accusing the West of reneging on this part of the agreement.
Military analyst Michael Clarke is with us again to answer your questions on the Ukraine war – and there’s plenty to get through.
He’ll be covering topics including:
Click on the link below now to follow along…
Interfax news agency has reported Russian forces have claimed two settlements in eastern Ukraine.
Those are Myrne, in the Donetsk region, and Mali Shcherbaky, in the Zaporizhzhia region.
According to that report – which cites Russia’s defence ministry – the two settlements in the map below are the locations taken by Moscow’s forces.
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