RAF fighter jets were scrambled to monitor Russian military aircraft near UK airspace, it has emerged. Overnight Russian attacks on Ukraine have killed one person in the southern port city of Odesa, according to officials.
Friday 15 November 2024 10:30, UK
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An emerging theme in the reporting around the war in Ukraine is the increasingly perilous economic plight of Russia.
As of this morning, the ruble was worth just 1 US cent and less than 1p in pound sterling.
It comes amid spiralling inflation in the country.
These issues are combining with a series of other economic difficulties to cause Vladimir Putin serious concern, according to the Institute for the Study of War think tank.
“The Kremlin’s recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia’s economic stability in the long term,” the analysts said.
“The Kremlin recently adopted several policies that aim to cut Russian government spending on wounded Russian servicemen, combat inflation, and address long-term demographic problems such as low birth rates and labour shortages.
“These policies demonstrate that the Russian economy is not as resilient to Western sanctions, monetary constraints, and the cost of the war effort as the Russian government postures.
“These policies also demonstrate that the Kremlin will not be able to sustain the protracted war effort for years and decades to come while shielding Russian society from economic challenges.
“Consistent Western and international support for Ukraine’s resistance on the battlefield will further exacerbate Russia’s economic problems.
“Putin modified compensation promised for Russian servicemen wounded while fighting in Ukraine – a clear indicator that the Kremlin is trying to cut the mounting short- and long-term costs of the war and restore balance to the Russian economy.”
RAF fighter jets were scrambled to monitor Russian military aircraft near UK airspace, it has emerged.
The defence ministry said the incident yesterday was the second time in three months that the Royal Navy and RAF have detected Russian ships and aircraft within a week of each other.
It said Typhoons deployed from RAF Lossiemouth monitored the Russian Bear-F aircraft flying over the North Sea.
“The Russian reconnaissance plane had been detected in the UK’s area of interest and at no time was it able to enter UK sovereign airspace,” the statement said.
It comes after the Royal Navy shadowed Russian military vessels passing through the Channel over the past week.
“The Typhoons, which were supported by a Voyager refuelling aircraft, are part of the RAF’s Quick Reaction Alert,” the statement added.
“This sees aircraft in Scotland and England at high-readiness 24/7, 365 days a year, ready to defend and protect UK airspace.”
It said the scrambling also followed British warships, helicopters, and long-range maritime patrol aircraft keeping close watch on the progress of two separate groups of Russian ships as they sailed in opposite directions – one bound for the Atlantic and the other towards the Baltic.
“This ensured the ships acted in a safe and non-threatening manner,” the statement said.
In the Channel, HMS Iron Duke and tanker RFA Tideforce shadowed three Russian vessels, which were led by the new frigate Admiral Golovko.
The Golovko was accompanied by oceanographic research vessel Yantar and supporting tanker Vyazma.
All three had been tracked by the Norwegian Navy before British forces took over.
The Duke class frigate and Tide-class tanker, supported by an RAF P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, followed the ships through the Dover Strait and Channel before handing over monitoring duties to the French Navy.
As the Golovko continued her journey, Iron Duke took over.
Luke Pollard, armed forces minister, said: “Our adversaries should be in no doubt of our steadfast determination and formidable ability to protect the UK.
“The Royal Navy and RAF have once again shown they stand ready to defend our country at a moment’s notice and I pay tribute to the professionalism and bravery of those involved in these latest operations.”
Ukraine could reopen its first airport since Russia’s 2022 invasion, a senior partner at insurance broker Marsh McLennan has said.
Kyiv has taken part in discussions with European aviation authorities and airlines on restoring some air travel for almost a year, Crispin Ellison of Marsh McLennan said, with one in its western Lviv region potentially reopening next year.
“If regulators agree it is safe to open it and a political decision is made, the insurance industry is ready to support the recovery efforts,” Ellison said.
Lviv region, which borders Poland, rarely comes under Russian strikes compared to other parts of Ukraine, though Russian troops have attacked its gas infrastructure and fired drones and missiles at it.
The airport has two terminals and had the capacity to serve up to 3,000 passengers an hour before the war.
Ukraine’s national flag carrier and several other companies have gone bankrupt due to the suspension of air travel.
The European Union should reconsider sanctions against Russia because they are keeping energy prices elevated and risking the bloc’s competitiveness, the Hungarian prime minister has said.
“Energy prices need to be lowered by all means,” said Viktor Orban, who has increasingly become an ally of Russia’s Vladimir Putin, after EU leaders signed a declaration on competitiveness at their informal summit last week.
“This means that sanctions need to be reconsidered because under the current sanctions policy, energy prices will not go lower.”
Orban told Hungarian public radio that US companies paid a quarter of the amount their European counterparts spend on gas and electricity, a disadvantage that could not be overcome by other means.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Orban has emerged as a vocal critic of EU sanctions against Moscow and the bloc’s financial and military support for its neighbour.
While countries in western Europe have made serious efforts to wean themselves off Russian energy, landlocked Hungary gets 80-85% of its gas from Russia, with 80% of its crude oil supplies also coming from its former communist ally.
In a theme we have touched on repeatedly in the week or so since the US presidential election, a newly published article this morning has been assessing the relative merits for Ukraine of Donald Trump’s election.
Whereas the general perception was that the former reality TV star might precipitate a capitulation for Kyiv in its war with Russia – through a withdrawal of military aid – there is also a school of opinion that the election result may have been the preferable option for Ukraine.
A Republican foreign policy expert has been speaking to Politico, and suggested there was cautious optimism among Ukrainian leaders over their prospects of achieving a better deal than they might have had Kamala Harris won the election.
“At best, Harris would have maintained Joe Biden’s approach – that would have been her policy, and it would have amounted to Ukraine’s slow death,” said the fixer, who was speaking on condition of anonymity.
“And not so slow any more – the pace of the Russian gains is quickening.
“Also, picture this: Harris having won and Republicans controlling one or both houses of Congress. Under those circumstances, Harris wouldn’t have been able to get any additional assistance through Congress. At least now, with Trump, he can snap his fingers, and the Republicans in the House will vote for more security assistance to Ukraine.”
Trump, the article suggested, will continue to arm Ukraine in the meantime because a failure to do so would mean Vladimir Putin has much stronger bargaining power when it comes to making a deal.
“Trump has some self-interest in this,” the Republican fixer said, adding that his phone calls with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and their recent meeting in New York had “instilled some confidence” in the Ukrainian president that he will not abandon Ukraine.
“The Ukrainians need to make sure Trump doesn’t see them as the obstacle to peace, and they shouldn’t be the first to say no, even when some silly ideas are thrown at them. They need the Russians to keep saying no to him, so the Ukrainians appear the reasonable party. Then Trump will conclude that the only way to bring the Russians to the table is to help the Ukrainians.”
Ukraine’s foreign minister says he hopes Marco Rubio, the nominee for US secretary of state, will pursue a policy of “peace through strength” for the war in Ukraine.
The secretary of state serves as the president’s chief foreign affairs adviser and the country’s top diplomat.
“I look forward to working together, deepening the mutually beneficial Ukraine-US strategic partnership, and advancing peace through strength in Ukraine and around the world,” Andrii Sybiha said on X.
Earlier this year, Mr Rubio was one of 15 Republican senators to vote against a $95bn (£74bn) military aid package to support Ukraine, which was eventually passed in April.
He has said in recent interviews that Ukraine needs to seek a negotiated settlement with Russia rather than focus on regaining all territory that Russia has taken in the last decade.
“I’m not on Russia’s side – but unfortunately the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement,” Mr Rubio said in September.
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine is an escalation of the “utmost seriousness”.
Intelligence from the US, South Korea and Ukraine claims that up to 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia’s Kursk border region to help beat back Ukrainian forces there.
NATO and the EU hope China, which has strong diplomatic ties with Pyongyang, can be persuaded to help get North Korea to stop supporting Moscow with its war aims.
In a blog published yesterday, Mr Borrell detailed his recent trip to Japan and South Korea, where North Korea’s troop deployment and other assistance to Russia was on the agenda.
“This marks an escalation of the utmost seriousness, which was of course at the heart of our discussions with the Japanese and South Korean leaders,” he wrote.
Kim Jong Un orders ‘mass production’ of suicide drones
NATO says Russia is sending missile technology to North Korea in return for its military assistance, with Kim Jong Un said to have recently ordered the “mass production” of suicide attack drones, according to state media.
“He underscored the need to build a serial production system as early as possible and go into full-scale mass production,” the Korean Central News Agency reported.
Suicide drones are explosive-carrying aerial vehicles designed to be crashed into enemy targets. They have featured heavily during Russia’s war in Ukraine.
One person has died and at least 10 others have been injured following an overnight Russian airstrike in Odesa, officials said.
Oleh Kiper, the regional governor of the southern port city, said a multistorey residential building was destroyed in the centre of the city and that high-rise flats and cars were damaged.
“Enemy fire also damaged the main central heating pipeline. The boiler plant has been temporarily shut down and repair work is under way,” he added.
Heating infrastructure for one of the city’s maternity hospitals was also damaged, he said.
Odesa’s mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov said the attack temporarily left more than 40,000 people without heating.
Mr Kiper earlier said the assault was carried out by drones, but Mr Trukhanov described it as a “mass combined enemy strike,” suggesting other weaponry was also used.
Odesa has been a frequent Russian target since the full-scale war began in February 2022, as have the port facilities located nearby.
Welcome back to our live coverage of the war in Ukraine.
Yesterday, Ukrainian officials said a Russian assault group had briefly broken through to the outskirts of Kupiansk.
It marked the first time Moscow’s forces had reached the northeastern city since they fled the area in September 2022.
People in the city were urged to evacuate.
In the nearby eastern Donetsk region, Russian forces claimed to have captured the village of Voznesenka – but this hasn’t been independently verified.
Concerns over the impact of the incoming Donald Trump presidency in the US continued.
Commentators have suggested the next US leader could withdraw support for Ukraine.
But experts from the Institute for the Study of War thinktank said the indications are that the Kremlin was attempting to dictate the terms of any potential “peace” negotiations with Ukraine in advance of Trump’s inauguration.
“The manner in which the Kremlin is trying to set its terms for negotiations strongly signals that Russia’s objectives remain unchanged and still amount to full Ukrainian capitulation,” the group’s analysts said.
We’ll bring you all the latest updates throughout the day…
That’s all our coverage on the war in Ukraine for now – but we’ll be back tomorrow with all the latest.
Here’s a round-up of today’s headlines before we go:
Moscow signalling Putin’s intentions for Ukraine when Trump takes over, analysts say
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War thinktank have said there are indications the Kremlin is now attempting to dictate the terms of any potential “peace” negotiations with Ukraine in advance of Donald Trump’s inauguration in the US.
“The manner in which the Kremlin is trying to set its terms for negotiations strongly signals that Russia’s objectives remain unchanged and still amount to full Ukrainian capitulation,” the group’s analysts say.
“The Kremlin does not appear any more willing to make concessions to the incoming Trump administration than it was to the current administration.”
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov claimed yesterday that the start of Trump’s presidency would not fundamentally change the US position on Ukraine.
Russian forces break through to outskirts of northeastern city, says Ukrainian officials
Ukrainian officials have said a Russian assault group briefly broke through to the outskirts of Kupiansk for the first time since Moscow’s forces fled the area in 2022.
“They partially entered the suburbs, the industrial zone, and were destroyed by our troops… There were assault actions using heavy armoured vehicles, there were attempts to bring in infantry,” the city’s military administration chief said.
The city, now just 1.5 miles from the front line, is under constant shelling and the population has dwindled to 3,000 people who are being urged to evacuate, the official, Andriy Besedin, said.
Ukrainian commander nicknamed ‘Genius’ reveals most effective piece of Western equipment
Our chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay has been in eastern Ukraine, where he spoke to Ukrainian troops near the Russian border.
He spoke to one of the country’s top field commanders, Captain Shyrshyn, who showed him the fighting vehicles used by his unit, and warned that equipment was running low.
You can read his full report below…
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