In a highly unusual move, a Russian general called Joe Biden’s top military adviser and talked about how to manage escalation concerns between the two countries. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military intelligence reportedly carries out a successful cyberattack on one of Russia’s biggest banks.
Friday 6 December 2024 14:12, UK
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The first round of Romania’s presidential election last month was seen as being significant for the war in Ukraine.
Despite opinion polls that put him in the single digits, Calin Georgescu – who wants to end Romanian support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion – finished in first place, a success that raised questions over how such a surprise had been possible in a European Union and NATO member state.
However, Romania’s top court annulled the result of the first round today, ruling that the entire election process would have to be rerun.
The second round had been due to be held on Sunday and voting is already underway in polling stations abroad.
Documents declassified by Romania’s top security council on Wednesday said the country was a target of “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” during the election period.
“The electoral process to elect Romania’s president will be fully re-run, and the government will set a new date and… calendar for the necessary steps,” the court said in a statement.
The second round of the presidential contest that had been due to take place on Sunday would have pitted Georgescu, a far-right, pro-Russian candidate, against pro-EU centrist leader Elena Lasconi.
Far-right parties also performed well in last Sunday’s parliamentary election in Romania, though the ruling Social Democrats emerged as the largest grouping and hope to cobble together a pro-EU coalition government.
The court has not called into question the integrity of the parliamentary vote.
The close allies have signed a treaty on security guarantees while Vladimir Putin is making a trip to Belarus, according to Russian state-owned news agency Tass.
Putin said the new document includes a potential use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed to Belarus in response to aggression.
Russia updated its nuclear doctrine last month, for the first time placing Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella.
It also lowered the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, in apparent response to the US decision to let Ukraine strike inside Russian territory with American-supplied longer-range missiles.
In televised remarks today, Putin said: “I’m sure that the treaty will ensure the security of Russia and Belarus.”
A prominent feature of the war in recent months has been the Russian border region of Kursk, where Ukrainian forces seized a number of villages during a shock offensive in August.
It has been widely reported that the campaign was an effort to divert Russian troops from key battlegrounds in Ukraine, although Moscow is believed to have opted to limit its push to retake the areas so as to maintain its forces along the front lines in Ukrainian territories.
Nevertheless, a signal of Vladimir Putin’s apparent dissatisfaction with the developments in Kursk came in the form of his decision announced yesterday to replace the governor there, Alexei Smirnov.
And asked about the current state of affairs in the region, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists: “The situation… is close to a denouement. This denouement will definitely happen, the situation will be normalised.”
He added that following this resolution, it would be necessary to engage in very rapid restoration of the region in order to ensure the return of people.
Asked whether the Kremlin had any complaints about Smirnov, the former head of the region, he said there was “no need to talk about complaints here, we need to talk about what needs to be done in this crisis situation”.
As detailed in our 6.35 post, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has accused the West of fuelling a new Cold War “with a much greater risk of a transition to a hot one”, during an interview with right-wing American broadcaster Tucker Carlson.
Watch an excerpt from the interview in the video below:
A coal mine in the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk – the sole domestic supplier of coking coal to the steel industry – continues to operate despite the approach of Russian troops, an industry source said today.
Ukrainian military analyst DeepState said Russian troops were less than 4.4 miles from Pokrovsk’s outskirts. The mine is 6.2 miles west of the town, a strategic supply hub, in the opposite direction to the advancing Russian forces.
“The mine continues to operate at the same volume as in recent weeks,” said the source, who asked not to be named.
It is unclear at what point the mine’s owner, metallurgical group Metinvest, might be forced to halt operations and evacuate staff.
Authorities have been carrying out a mandatory evacuation of civilians from Pokrovsk since 24 September and about 11,500 people remained in the city as of 2 December.
Russian forces are advancing in the eastern Donetsk region at the fastest rate since the early days of the 2022 invasion, and Ukraine’s army chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said last month he would strengthen the eastern front with reserves, ammunition and equipment.
Ukraine’s steelmakers’ union warned in October that the potential closure of the Pokrovsk mine could cause steel production to slump to two to three million metric tons next year from the 7.5 million expected in 2024.
Producers hope to find alternative sources of coking coal from elsewhere in Ukraine should the Pokrovsk mine be seized by Russian troops, but imports would inevitably be needed – hiking costs.
Ukraine increased steel production by 25.7% in January to October to 6.5 million tons, the steelmakers’ union said. Ukraine traditionally exports a major part of its metal products, mainly to the European Union.
Those familiar with the workings of the Kremlin may be aware of an annual fixture in Vladimir Putin’s calendar, in the form of his end-of-year news conference.
The Russian president has held the hours-long conference, which is a major political event in the country, almost every December since becoming leader – although it was cancelled in 2022 amid the country’s faltering military campaign in Ukraine.
With his forces seemingly now in a position of ascendancy, Putin will stage the marathon call on 19 December.
The event typically sees him answering softball questions from journalists and the public, in a ploy that allows the Kremlin to present it as evidence of Russia’s respect for freedom of expression and transparency in governance.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “This will be a combined format with a press conference. Journalists from federal media, regional media and international media will be accredited for the press conference.
“There will be mainly those foreigners who work within the framework of the current accreditation in the territory of the Russian Federation, but there will also be several Western media who will fly in specifically for this event.”
State media reported that questions for Putin would be collected by phone, SMS, online and through social networks.
The governor of Belgorod says Ukrainian forces have launched 36 projectiles and 26 drones at seven districts in the Russian border region over the past 24 hours.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, the region’s governor, said four civilians were wounded in the strikes.
“In the Shebekinsky district, the city of Shebekino and the settlement of Terezovka came under four rounds of shelling, during which they were attacked by seven shells and one drone,” he said, adding that 17 private houses, a car, an electric power transmission line, and a gas pipeline were damaged.
He said Ukrainian forces launched 17 projectiles and five drones at the Belgorod region, damaging a passenger car, and that four settlements in the Grayvoronsky district were attacked by 10 artillery rounds and three drones.
According to the regional head, five drones were launched at the Borisovsky district, damaging a private house and a passenger car, while air defences shot two drones in the skies over Belgorod and the Volokonovsky district.
Ten drones and two artillery shells were launched at the Krasnoyaruzhsky and Chernyansky districts, he said, with no injuries or damage reported.
As we reported in our 6.44 post, Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 32 Russian drones overnight.
Pictures have since emerged that show some of the drones over Kyiv in the early hours of this morning.
Norway’s £1.41trn sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, can start selling stocks it holds in Russian companies as long as it complies with international sanctions, Norway’s deputy finance minister has said.
“Permission to sell the fund’s Russian stocks is given on the condition that the sale can be done in line with applicable sanctions,” deputy finance minister Ellen Reitan said.
The Norwegian finance ministry ordered a halt to all transactions in the fund’s Russian assets shortly after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and said at the time that the ultimate goal was to divest its holdings.
The fund has so far been effectively barred from offloading Russian assets because it is not permitted to sell to counterparties under US or EU sanctions.
Yesterday, the central bank, which manages the fund, asked for permission to sell parts of its Russian portfolio when possible.
Norway’s fund, which holds the windfall generated by its oil and gas production, owns 1.5% of all global listed shares in companies.
The daily update on the war provided by the Institute for the Study of War thinktank offers a number of interesting insights into the dynamics in Russia, another of which we’ll return to later.
One developing theme it observes surrounds the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, who it says continues to publicly position himself as a defender of migrants and Russian ethnic minorities.
This approach, the analysts say, is in opposition to other senior Russian security officials, “suggesting that senior Russian officials may be increasingly divided over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to promote an inclusive Russian civic nationalism that ensures interethnic and interreligious harmony in Russia”.
According to the ISW, Kadyrov accused Alexander Bastrykin, the head of the Russian Investigative Committee, and Vladimir Kolokoltsev, head of the internal affairs ministry, yesterday of not fulfilling the objectives Putin tasked them with in response to a case involving a Chechen minor accused of hooliganism in Moscow City.
Kadyrov also criticised the pair for failing to protect Russian ethnic minorities, accusing them of not listening to the Russian public and claiming Kolokoltsev ordered Russian law enforcement services to beat foreigners and drive them out of the country.
The analysts conclude: “Public disagreements between senior Russian officials regarding the role and treatment of migrants and ethnic and religious minorities in Russian society suggest that there may be an increasing opposition among certain Kremlin officials to Putin’s long-term efforts to portray Russia as an inclusive and harmonious multicultural Russian state and foster civic nationalism instead of ethno-religious nationalism.”
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