Vladimir Putin has warned he could hit back against countries supplying weapons used by Ukraine to strike targets in Russia, in an apparent reference to the US and UK. Meanwhile, his ally in North Korea, Kim Jong Un, has made a nuclear threat of his own.
Friday 22 November 2024 11:20, UK
By Michael Drummond, foreign news reporter
The frontline in Ukraine is at risk of “collapse” as Russian forces capture village after village, analysts have warned.
Kyiv’s defenders, exhausted from nearly three years of fighting, are outnumbered and desperately in need of equipment.
What’s more, their audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in the summer means some of their most elite troops are now bogged down across the border and unable to help shore up vulnerable spots along the frontline.
Russia’s defence minister has said Moscow’s forces are “accelerating” their advance in eastern Ukraine.
Back in August, Ukrainian forces launched a daring incursion across the border into Russia, supported by tanks and other armoured vehicles.
It appeared to catch the Kremlin by surprise and a portion of the Kursk region fell under Ukrainian control – and has been ever since. Some of Ukraine’s best-trained and best-equipped units are helping in the defence of the Kursk salient.
The idea was that the loss of territory in Kursk would be so politically unacceptable to Putin that Russia would redeploy its most capable units from eastern Ukraine to try and liberate it, thereby relieving pressure on the frontline in Ukraine, says Dr Marina Miron, an expert in war studies at King’s College London.
But instead, Russia seems willing to keep Ukraine bogged down in Kursk while it mounts punishing attacks along the frontline in Ukraine – with success.
Moscow’s forces have been advancing in the last two months at their fastest rate since March 2022, according to open source data, capturing village after village.
“The risk is that the frontline along the Donbas will collapse,” Dr Miron says. “Much faster, probably, because of this Kursk operation.”
She said Ukraine should worry less about what’s happening in Kursk and more about Russian advances towards the city of Toretsk and the key town of Pokrovsk – which both lie just to the west of Avdiivka.
“Those are very important logistical hubs and defence outposts for the Ukrainian armed forces, and losing them will give Russia the advantage to move forward to cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.”
Pokrovsk, the sole source of coking coal for Ukraine’s steel industry, has been a major objective for Putin’s military. Some reports say Russian troops now hold positions less than six miles from the town.
And despite the US finally lifting restrictions on Ukraine using Western missiles to hit targets inside Russia, Kyiv’s forces face big problems.
UK defence secretary John Healey warned on Thursday that the frontline in Ukraine is “now less stable than at any time since the early days of the full scale Russian invasion”.
The Kremlin has no doubt that the US understood Vladimir Putin’s statement yesterday, according to the Kremlin.
Putin’s address to the Russian people, in which he said that Moscow had used a new missile in Ukraine in response to “Western escalation”, was very comprehensive, understandable and logical, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
“We would prefer Washington to listen to the statements the Russian president made several months ago in St Petersburg,” he added.
Watch Putin’s address here
He also said there remained “openness” to hold talks with the US.
He summed up what Putin said by firing the new missile and his address: “The main message is that the reckless decisions and actions of Western countries that produce missiles, supply them to Ukraine and subsequently take part in strikes on Russian territory cannot remain without a reaction from the Russian side.
“The Russian side has clearly demonstrated its capabilities. The contours of further retaliatory actions, if our concerns are not taken into account, are also quite clearly outlined.”
Merchandise including T-shirts has been put on sale in Russia after the test of a new missile yesterday.
This example, pictured by an RIA reporter, shows a T-shirt with an image of Vladimir Putin and the “Oreshnik” missile being fired, along with pictures of Joe Biden.
The Russian president said his military had tested the new intermediate-range missile in a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro yesterday, in response to Ukraine using US and British-supplied missiles on Russian soil.
Russian units previously regarded as “elite” by the Western world are understrength, misused and becoming ineffective, according to a leading thinktank.
The US-based Institute for the Study War said distinctions in quality between Russian units that existed before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine “have become increasingly obsolete because of the way Russia is prosecuting its war”.
“Russian formations that were once considered ‘elite’ or more specialised in terms of the tactical tasks they were associated with, such as VDV or naval infantry units, are now essentially functioning as understrength motorised rifle units, relying on infantry-led frontal assaults to make tactical gains as opposed to employing any sort of doctrinally unique tactics,” it said.
It also noted that Russian high command had been forced to “rush” new recruits to fill gaps in its units due to high casualty rates.
It explained how this may affect North Korean troops who have been sent to fight alongside them.
“North Korea’s ability to learn and integrate lessons from fighting alongside Russia is likely to be significantly degraded if the Russian military command uses North Korean troops in the same highly attritional infantry-led assaults that it uses most Russian personnel,” it said.
It said if Pyongyang’s troops were used by Moscow in the same way as its own, North Korea should expect the same high casulty rates.
As a result, “the losses that North Korean forces accrue in combat on behalf of Russia will dilute whatever institutional lessons the North Korean military was hoping to learn by joining Russia as a co-belligerent against Ukraine”.
Britain is now “directly involved” in the Ukraine war after its Storm Shadow missiles were used to strike targets inside Russia, according to Moscow’s ambassador.
Speaking to Sky News yesterday, Andrei Kelin also warned the West to carefully consider the lower bar Russia has established for using nuclear weapons.
It comes after Western allies green-lit Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russia this week after months of requests.
Read the full story here:
A 1,000-page document which details how Germany would respond to a war breaking out with Russia has been leaked by local media.
The document, named Operations Plan Germany, had its rough outline laid out by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
The outlet said it lists key commercial buildings and infrastructure that should be protected by the German armed forces, and offers local businesses tips on how to respond to war – including preparing replacement staff should migrant workers leave Germany.
It also reportedly contained tips on awareness on drone surveillance, cyberattacks and other forms of espionage in local communities.
Additionally, it detailed how Germany would logistically manage hosting tens of thousands of NATO troops should that be required.
North Korea has been provided with Russian anti-air missiles in exchange for sending 10,000 to aid Moscow in its war against Ukraine, according to a South Korean official.
Seoul’s national security adviser Shin Won-sik said Russia has provided North Korea with the missiles and other air defence equipment in an interview with South Korean broadcaster SBS.
Shin said Russia had given North Korea economic and military technology support, when asked what Pyongyang stood to gain from sending troops to Russia.
“It is understood that North Korea has been provided with related equipment and anti-aircraft missiles to strengthen Pyongyang’s weak air defence system,” Shin said.
He also claimed that North Korea had been given technology to support its satellite programme, following a failed attempt to launch a spy satellite earlier this year.
The UK’s home secretary has said that the West should expect to continue to see “aggressive language” from Vladimir Putin.
Speaking to Sky News this morning, Yvette Cooper was adamant that Russia and Vladimir Putin needed standing up to – even with the threats he appeared to make against the US and UK yesterday (see 6.11am post).
“Russia invaded a sovereign state,” she said.
“We have seen the aggressive, blustering tone and response from Putin all the way through this, it’s completely unacceptable, and we will continue to see that sort of aggressive language.
“We are clear that that sort of behaviour cannot be tolerated, and that’s why we have provided the support to Ukraine as they defend themselves against Putin’s aggression.”
Ms Cooper also declined to officially confirm whether British weapons had been used by Ukraine on Russian soil, as has been widely reported.
By Stuart Ramsay, chief correspondent
A tall man emerged from an array of gym equipment, walking towards me, slightly swaying as his prosthetic leg flexed and stepped in time with his natural one.
His right arm was missing, and his left was a smooth black prosthesis arm with his hands and fingers clenched in a fist.
He was introduced to me as Anton. I wasn’t sure how to greet him other than to say hello.
He saw my hesitation, and smiling he raised his left arm to shake my hand, his fingers opening and closing around my hand as we observed a customary gesture of greeting – a handshake.
His handshake was gentle and completely natural. I was simply amazed. I’ve never seen or experienced anything like it.
Read Ramsay’s full report here.
The Russian defence minister has claimed Moscow’s forces are “accelerating” their advance in eastern Ukraine.
Andrei Belousov made the comments after visiting a command post in Ukraine and handing out medals for bravery.
According to state media outlet TASS, he also said the Russian army has effectively disrupted “the entire [Ukrainian] 2025 campaign”.
He offered no specifics.
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