Days after Joe Biden lifted a ban on Ukraine using US long-range missiles against Russia, Vladimir Putin has approved an updated nuclear doctrine. It states Russia could consider using nuclear weapons if it is subject to a conventional missile assault on it supported by a nuclear power.
Tuesday 19 November 2024 11:40, UK
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In the hours since news emerged of the Biden administration’s decision to allow the use of US-supplied missiles for strikes on Russia, a number of officials in Moscow have responded with warnings to the West.
Indeed, those warnings were in many ways superseded this morning when Vladimir Putin signed off on changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine (see 8.50 post).
The Kremlin followed that move soon after with a statement implying that Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied missiles against Russia could prompt a nuclear response under the new policies (see 9.32 post).
However, the Institute for the Study of War think-tank suggested that Moscow’s threats were merely designed to dissuade military support for Kyiv.
“Russia has not previously escalated militarily against any perceived Western violations of Russia’s ‘red lines’ — as ISW has repeatedly observed,” analysts from the group said.
They added that a number of Russian officials and propagandists had heavily emphasised that Washington officials had not yet formally confirmed the authorisation of the use of US-supplied missiles.
This, they said, was “likely in an attempt to convince the United States to back out of the decision and deny the media reports of the authorisation”.
ISW described the US decision as a “mild response” to Vladimir Putin’s introduction of North Korea as a new belligerent in the war – which it said was a “major escalation”.
“Allowing Ukraine to use US missiles against legitimate military targets in Russian territory in accord with all international laws and laws of armed conflict is a very limited response and cannot reasonably be characterised as an escalation in itself,” they concluded.
As the conflict in Ukraine enters its 1,000th day, the war could be about to shift.
President Joe Biden’s approval for Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia with long-range US missiles has sparked fears of escalation, with fury in Moscow.
Vladimir Putin has previously called the move “an unacceptable red line”, as Western leaders, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at the G20, weigh their next steps.
Daily host Niall Paterson explores whether this moment marks a turning point for Ukraine, or the brink of something far worse.
Ivor Bennett, our Moscow correspondent, and defence analyst Tim Ripley join Niall Patterson to discuss why these missiles could change the course of the war.
By Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor
Leaders of the Group of 20 most powerful economies – a club that groups Western allies with arch-rivals – have voiced support for a “just, durable peace” over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The mild language reflects the need to find a form of words that countries such as the UK, the US and France, staunch allies of Kyiv, could agree with fellow G20 member Moscow, which is backed by other friends, most importantly China.
It falls well short of the message Sir Keir Starmer brought to the two-day meeting in Rio de Janeiro, where he urged nations to “double down” on their support for Ukraine as Russia’s full-scale invasion enters its 1,000th day today.
Instead, the G20 statement declared: “We welcome all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace, upholding all the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter for the promotion of peaceful, friendly, and good neighborly relations among nations.”
It was part of a 22-page final communique issued last night by the G20 leaders before the final day of the summit today.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is addressing the European Parliament in Brussels via video link from Ukraine.
“Oil is the lifeblood of Putin’s regime,” he says, adding that strong sanctions like those imposed by many Western states are “essential”.
“Together we have accomplished much, but we must not fear to give more.”
Turning to North Korea, he says that while 11,000 troops are currently fighting alongside Russia, he believes that up to 100,000 could eventually be sent.
“No one can enjoy calm waters amid a storm,” he says.
He ends his address to a standing ovation in Belgium.
European countries may need to send soldiers into Ukraine to ensure the survival of any peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, Estonia’s foreign minister has said.
Margus Tsahkna told the Financial Times that NATO membership would provide the best security guarantee for Ukraine.
But he said that if the US under Donald Trump was opposed to inviting Kyiv to join the military alliance, Europe should be prepared to deploy troops to the country when the war ends to prevent more Russian aggression.
“If we are talking about real security guarantees, it means that there will be a just peace,” he said.
“Then we are talking about NATO membership.
“But without the US it is impossible. And then we are talking about any form [of guarantee] in the meaning of boots on the ground.”
The UK has announced fresh sanctions against “perpetrators of Russia’s forced deportation and brainwashing of Ukrainian children” as the war enters its 1,000th day.
The package of 10 designations includes “leading Russian officials” and “state-linked youth organisations”, according to the Foreign Office.
“More than 19,500 Ukrainian children have been forcibly transferred or deported by the Russian authorities to Russia and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine,” a statement read.
An estimated 6,000 Ukrainian children have been relocated to a network of re-education camps, it added.
“Once there, they are subjected to indoctrination efforts which seek to erode their Ukrainian identity and instil pro-Russian sentiments, a strategy dating back to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea more than 10 years ago,” it said.
“Those responsible have been sanctioned today.”
Sanctioned today are:
The Kremlin has warned that Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied missiles against Russia could prompt a nuclear response.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, revealed Moscow’s stance during his daily news briefing as he was asked about the significance of the changes to the nuclear doctrine approved by Vladimir Putin today.
According to state-run news agency Tass, he said the document “concerns the fact that the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression with the use of conventional weapons against it” where that is deemed to have created “a critical threat to sovereignty or territorial integrity”.
When asked by journalists whether Russia would view the use of Western non-nuclear missiles by the Ukrainian armed forces as part of an attack by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state, and whether that would entail the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons, Tass quoted him as replying: “Yes, that is what is being discussed.”
The comments would appear designed to allude to the Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied missiles to strike deep into Russia.
It should be noted at this point that Moscow has made a series of threats to the West over its support for Ukraine throughout the war, often invoking the spectre of a nuclear response.
However, most analysts have suggested the warnings will not actually be acted on and are simply designed to deter Western nations from providing Kyiv with military backing.
Vladimir Putin has approved an updated nuclear doctrine, saying that Russia could consider using nuclear weapons if it is subject to a conventional missile assault on it supported by a nuclear power.
The decision to change Russia’s official nuclear doctrine has been in process for months – but Putin signing it this week appears to be a response to the Biden administration allowing Ukraine to fire American long-range missiles deep into Russia.
The updated doctrine, which outlines the threats which would make Russia’s leadership consider a nuclear strike, said an attack with conventional missiles, drones or other aircraft could be considered to meet these criteria.
It also said any aggression against Russia by a state which was a member of a coalition would be considered by Moscow to be aggression against it by the whole coalition.
Just weeks before the November US presidential elections, Putin ordered changes to the nuclear doctrine to say that any conventional attack on Russia aided by a nuclear power could be considered to be a joint attack on Russia.
The 1,000-day-old Ukraine war has triggered the gravest confrontation between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis – considered to be the closest the two Cold War superpowers came to intentional nuclear war.
Chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay has been discussing the current situation in Ukraine as the war enters its 1,000th day.
“I think we’re entering a very critical phase here because obviously it’s the end of the Biden presidency and then Trump will come in,” he says.
“And what will happen to the country after that? Will he try to negotiate an end to the war? He said he’s going to do it in a day, but hasn’t given any details as to how that is going to happen.
“And I think that’s contributed to an awful lot of people here being very concerned about the future.
“Of course, the news that long-range weapons will be allowed to be used by the Ukrainian army, it gave a sort of fillip to the people.
“But I was here a thousand days ago and I have to say that I, and many others, didn’t think the Ukrainian defence would be as effective as it was and has been.
“Much more importantly, however, is that President Putin didn’t think he’d be looking at a thousand days of war. He thought that he was going to roll this government over and put in a new power that was supportive of Moscow.
“Well, none of that has happened.
“President Zelenskyy will speak to the EU parliament today. He’ll then address the nation, coming up with a new sort of plan, a vision for the future.
“It’s a lot about investment. But he also talks about what’s happening on the front line, and that is not awfully good, particularly in the east of the country.
“Russia is in the ascendancy there.”
The US has become directly involved in the war by allowing Ukraine to fire its long-range missiles at Russia, former Putin adviser Sergey Markov has said.
He told Sky News’ The World the US was only using Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops against Ukraine as a “pretence”.
“Joe Biden wants to block attempts of Donald Trump when he will be inaugurated as president to make a peace deal.”
He said that if Ukraine uses the UK’s long-range missiles, known as Storm Shadow, against Russia with the participation of British officers, the British military would become a target along with that of the US.
“If United States and Great Britain are now directly taking part in a war against Russia, it means that all militaries of US and Great Britain become legitimate goals for the Russian military.”
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