Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow may order strikes on “decision-making centres” in Kyiv. Meanwhile, reports suggest Donald Trump’s team are mulling various plans to end the war. Listen to The World podcast while you scroll as our hosts ask: What is the endgame for Putin and Zelenskyy?
Thursday 28 November 2024 13:35, UK
By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
An exchange rate of 100 roubles to the dollar is an important, symbolic threshold for Russians.
It carries with it fears of financial instability, and memories of economic collapse. So when the rouble does hit triple digits, purse strings are tightened and alarm bells ring.
“Panic attack for Russia’s currency market,” read the headline in Rossiskaya Gazeta, after the rouble sank to 114 against the dollar yesterday.
According to the daily Kommersant newspaper, the currency news “resembled a war report”. It advises readers to “buckle up your roubles”.
After falling to its lowest level against the dollar since March 2022, the rouble has now lost one third of its value since August.
This time two years ago, it was hovering around the 60 mark. Fifteen years ago, it was as low as 30.
But these are very different times, of course. The latest drop comes after the US imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, Russia’s third-largest lender. It plays a key role handling energy payments and was one of the few Russian banks not under sanctions. The new measures against it triggered panic buying on the forex market.
“The rouble has lost its brakes,” declared the state-run tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets, which quotes a financial analyst who predicts the dollar rate could reach 120 by the end of December.
The obsession with the exchange rate is a historical hangover. During Soviet times, only the elite were allowed to own foreign currency and it meant a higher standard of living, like holidays abroad and luxury-imports at home.
During the chaos and hyperinflation of the ’90s, those who didn’t have hard currency saw much of their savings wiped out when the rouble was devalued.
So when the rouble slides like this, it sparks fears inflation will soar as imports become more expensive.
When the rouble fell below 100 last August, the central bank was forced into an emergency rate rise of 3.5 percentage points to 12%. Little more than a year on, that rate is now 21%, its highest level since 2003. Will it go even higher?
Not for now, it seems. Instead, the central bank has decided to stop buying foreign currency, hoping that will stabilise the markets.
Not that the government is concerned, quite the opposite it seems. Commenting on the exchange rate earlier this week, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the weak rouble was “very, very favourable” to exporters.
Some commentators have jumped on the remarks, believing it shows the Kremlin is happy to keep the rouble where it is.
But with inflation already running at around 8%, ordinary Russians are unlikely to share that sentiment.
A few more details now on Russia’s overnight strikes on Ukraine, which officials in the country described as “massive”.
Ukraine’s air force has said Russia made 12 strikes on Ukrainian targets in a series of aerial attacks – which mostly targeted fuel and energy infrastructure.
It added that Russia fired a large number of missiles and drones, which overwhelmed air defences in some places.
The air force previously reported it had shot down 79 Russian missiles.
Military analyst Sean Bell has been speaking on Sky News about the significance of Russia’s recent strikes on Ukraine – and what we can expect to see over the coming weeks.
“Each year, the energy infrastructure is hit [partly] to knock morale,” he said.
“But another reason is that President Zelenskyy famously said he’s going to produce a million drones a year from the defence industry in Ukraine.
“If you take out the power of the industry, you can’t make the drones.
“What is interesting is that Ukraine has become very effective at getting these grids back up and running, but of course inevitably that ends up with some breaks.
“Why now? Almost certainly because, A, it’s winter, it gets ferociously cold up there.”
He added that the prospect of Donald Trump beginning his presidency on 20 January would also be a factor in Moscow’s strategy.
“It’s no coincidence, we’re approaching the 20th of January, Putin is pushing everything he can in Ukraine, not only to take as much territory as possible but also to knock morale as low as possible, ready for a potential negotiation at that time.
“I suspect we’re going to see more of the same. Normally each winter we’ve seen a bit of a decline. I suspect we’re going to see a surge over the coming weeks.”
A little more detail on comments from Vladimir Putin this morning, as reported in our 10.36 post.
The Russian president has been speaking at a meeting of a security alliance of ex-Soviet countries in Kazakhstan, where he has been issuing more warnings over Ukraine’s use of long-range Western-supplied missiles for strikes deep into Russia.
“Tonight we conducted a comprehensive strike using 90 missiles of similar classes and 100 drones. Seventeen targets were hit.
“These are military facilities, defence industry facilities and their support systems. Let me repeat once again: these strikes on our part also took place in response to the ongoing strikes [by Ukraine] on Russian territory with American ATACMS missiles.
“As I have already said many times, there will always be a response from our side.”
Referring to the ballistic missile Russia used for strikes on Dnipro last week – which it calls Oreshnik – he claimed that the impact of a single strike using several of the rockets would be similar to that of nuclear weapons.
“In the opinion of military and technical experts, in the event of a massive, group strike of these missiles, that is, several missiles at once, in a cluster, their single strike will be comparable to the use of nuclear weapons,” he said.
“Even though, certainly, Oreshnik is not a weapon of mass destruction.”
A Russian court has today jailed a lawyer who has represented critics of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
Dmitry Talantov was sentenced to seven years in prison after he was convicted him of spreading false information about the Russian army and of “inciting hatred.”
The charges against the 63-year-old stem from several Facebook posts in which he called the actions of Russian soldiers in Ukraine “extreme Nazi practices”, according to the Mediazona outlet, which has itself been designated “a foreign agent” by Russian authorities.
Talantov denied any wrongdoing, the court in Udmurtia, east of Moscow, said in a statement.
Donald Trump’s election win earlier this month has prompted a stream of speculation around what it might mean for the war in Ukraine – which the president-elect had promised to end within a day of taking office.
His victory has raised fears that the US might cut off funding to Kyiv, with the Republican having repeatedly voiced doubts about Washington’s continued support.
Now, a new report suggests Trump’s soon-to-be national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has been mulling several proposals over recent days for bringing the war to an end.
According to CNN, one is from General Keith Kellogg, who Trump announced yesterday as his pick to be special envoy to the countries.
The network reports that his plan calls for continued US military aid to Ukraine to be contingent on Kyiv taking part in peace talks with Russia and “a formal US policy to seek a ceasefire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict”.
It is also said to include the shelving for an extended period of any discussion around Ukraine joining NATO, in an effort to draw Russia to the negotiating table.
A separate proposal also reportedly reviewed by Waltz has been endorsed by Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, Ric Grenell.
Grenell has previously expressed support for the creation of “autonomous regions” inside Ukraine, though he has not offered details as to what that would look like.
CNN reports that another idea being floated is to allow Russia to keep the territory it currently holds in exchange for Ukraine getting NATO membership.
However, the report adds, few people in Trump’s circle appear keen to allow Ukraine into NATO anytime soon.
As we have been reporting this morning, Russia carried out a series of strikes on Ukraine overnight, with energy infrastructure among the targets.
Images emerging from the country in the last hour show the aftermath of the attacks in some parts, along with picture of families taking refuge from the bombing in capital city, Kyiv.
Russia is selecting targets in Ukraine that could include “decision-making centres” in Kyiv in response to Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian territory with Western weapons, Vladimir Putin has said.
Attacks launched by Moscow have not so far struck government buildings in the Ukrainian capital, which is heavily protected by air defences.
Putin says Russia’s Oreshnik hypersonic missile, which it fired for the first time at a Ukrainian city last week, is incapable of being intercepted – although that claim has been questioned by at least one expert (see 7.55 post).
“Of course, we will respond to the ongoing strikes on Russian territory with long-range Western-made missiles, as has already been said, including by possibly continuing to test the Oreshnik in combat conditions,” Putin told a meeting of a security alliance of ex-Soviet countries in Kazakhstan.
“At present, the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff are selecting targets to hit on Ukrainian territory. These could be military facilities, defence and industrial enterprises, or decision-making centres in Kyiv.”
Russia says Ukraine fired ATACMS ballistic missiles supplied by the US into western Russia for the first time on 19 November, prompting it to respond two days later by firing the Oreshnik, a new intermediate-range missile, at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
Since then, Russia says Ukraine fired more ATACMS at its Kursk region on 23 and 25 November.
Putin claimed Russia’s production of advanced missile systems exceeds that of the NATO military alliance by 10 times, and that Moscow plans to ramp up production further.
By Stuart Ramsay, chief correspondent, in Kyiv
This is the second time in the three weeks I have been in Ukraine that Russia has carried out major nationwide strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure.
In many ways it felt like it was building. Since Saturday night, the air raid sirens have been going off more regularly. And last night the air raid notifications on our phones were more regular than usual.
Air defence units across the country had already been bolstered in all the major cities, with special units assigned to protect the capital Kyiv, which the military said has always been a prime target for Russia.
Today’s attacks were nationwide, affecting all of Ukraine’s major cities, bringing about the loss of power to one million in the country’s west, and rolling power cuts elsewhere.
The Russian strategy is to undermine morale and wear down the Ukrainian people.
Targeting energy infrastructure doesn’t necessarily have any military advantage for the Russians, but it is an attack on Ukraine’s psyche.
Speaking to people who live here in the capital over the last few days, they say the combination of the power cuts and the threat of drones and missiles from the skies has a big impact on them, and in particular on children, some of whom have found themselves in air raid shelters for yet another night.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been responding to the major attack launched on Ukraine overnight.
The Ukrainian president said Russia used cruise missiles with cluster munitions to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure this morning – calling it a “despicable escalation”.
“In total, approximately 100 strike drones and over 90 missiles of various types were launched,” he said.
“Several regions reported Kalibr missile strikes with cluster munitions, deliberately aimed at civilian infrastructure. The use of these cluster elements significantly complicates the work of our rescuers and power engineers in mitigating the damage, marking yet another despicable escalation in Russia’s terrorist tactics.”
He also reiterated his call to Kyiv’s Western allies to provide more air defence and ensure timely deliveries, especially during critical winter months as Ukraine struggles to protect its energy infrastructure from the strikes.
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