Overnight Russian attacks on Ukraine have killed one person in the southern port city of Odesa, according to officials. Meanwhile, state media in North Korea says Kim Jong Un has recently sanctioned the “mass production” of suicide drones.
Friday 15 November 2024 08:39, UK
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In a theme we have touched on repeatedly in the week or so since the US presidential election, a newly published article this morning has been assessing the relative merits for Ukraine of Donald Trump’s election.
Whereas the general perception was that the former reality TV star might precipitate a capitulation for Kyiv in its war with Russia – through a withdrawal of military aid – there is also a school of opinion that the election result may have been the preferable option for Ukraine.
A Republican foreign policy expert has been speaking to Politico, and suggested there was cautious optimism among Ukrainian leaders over their prospects of achieving a better deal than they might have had Kamala Harris won the election.
“At best, Harris would have maintained Joe Biden’s approach – that would have been her policy, and it would have amounted to Ukraine’s slow death,” said the fixer, who was speaking on condition of anonymity.
“And not so slow any more – the pace of the Russian gains is quickening.
“Also, picture this: Harris having won and Republicans controlling one or both houses of Congress. Under those circumstances, Harris wouldn’t have been able to get any additional assistance through Congress. At least now, with Trump, he can snap his fingers, and the Republicans in the House will vote for more security assistance to Ukraine.”
Trump, the article suggested, will continue to arm Ukraine in the meantime because a failure to do so would mean Vladimir Putin has much stronger bargaining power when it comes to making a deal.
“Trump has some self-interest in this,” the Republican fixer said, adding that his phone calls with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and their recent meeting in New York had “instilled some confidence” in the Ukrainian president that he will not abandon Ukraine.
“The Ukrainians need to make sure Trump doesn’t see them as the obstacle to peace, and they shouldn’t be the first to say no, even when some silly ideas are thrown at them. They need the Russians to keep saying no to him, so the Ukrainians appear the reasonable party. Then Trump will conclude that the only way to bring the Russians to the table is to help the Ukrainians.”
Ukraine’s foreign minister says he hopes Marco Rubio, the nominee for US secretary of state, will pursue a policy of “peace through strength” for the war in Ukraine.
The secretary of state serves as the president’s chief foreign affairs adviser and the country’s top diplomat.
“I look forward to working together, deepening the mutually beneficial Ukraine-US strategic partnership, and advancing peace through strength in Ukraine and around the world,” Andrii Sybiha said on X.
Earlier this year, Mr Rubio was one of 15 Republican senators to vote against a $95bn (£74bn) military aid package to support Ukraine, which was eventually passed in April.
He has said in recent interviews that Ukraine needs to seek a negotiated settlement with Russia rather than focus on regaining all territory that Russia has taken in the last decade.
“I’m not on Russia’s side – but unfortunately the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement,” Mr Rubio said in September.
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine is an escalation of the “utmost seriousness”.
Intelligence from the US, South Korea and Ukraine claims that up to 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia’s Kursk border region to help beat back Ukrainian forces there.
NATO and the EU hope China, which has strong diplomatic ties with Pyongyang, can be persuaded to help get North Korea to stop supporting Moscow with its war aims.
In a blog published yesterday, Mr Borrell detailed his recent trip to Japan and South Korea, where North Korea’s troop deployment and other assistance to Russia was on the agenda.
“This marks an escalation of the utmost seriousness, which was of course at the heart of our discussions with the Japanese and South Korean leaders,” he wrote.
Kim Jong Un orders ‘mass production’ of suicide drones
NATO says Russia is sending missile technology to North Korea in return for its military assistance, with Kim Jong Un said to have recently ordered the “mass production” of suicide attack drones, according to state media.
“He underscored the need to build a serial production system as early as possible and go into full-scale mass production,” the Korean Central News Agency reported.
Suicide drones are explosive-carrying aerial vehicles designed to be crashed into enemy targets. They have featured heavily during Russia’s war in Ukraine.
One person has died and eight others have been injured following an overnight Russian airstrike in Odesa, officials said.
Oleh Kiper, the regional governor of the southern port city, said a multistorey residential building was destroyed in the centre of the city and that high-rise flats and cars were damaged.
“Enemy fire also damaged the main central heating pipeline. The boiler plant has been temporarily shut down and repair work is under way,” he added.
Heating infrastructure for one of the city’s maternity hospitals was also damaged, he said.
Odesa’s mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov said the attack temporarily left more than 40,000 people without heating.
Mr Kiper earlier said the assault was carried out by drones, but Mr Trukhanov described it as a “mass combined enemy strike,” suggesting other weaponry was also used.
Odesa has been a frequent Russian target since the full-scale war began in February 2022, as have the port facilities located nearby.
Welcome back to our live coverage of the war in Ukraine.
Yesterday, Ukrainian officials said a Russian assault group had briefly broken through to the outskirts of Kupiansk.
It marked the first time Moscow’s forces had reached the northeastern city since they fled the area in September 2022.
People in the city were urged to evacuate.
In the nearby eastern Donetsk region, Russian forces claimed to have captured the village of Voznesenka – but this hasn’t been independently verified.
Concerns over the impact of the incoming Donald Trump presidency in the US continued.
Commentators have suggested the next US leader could withdraw support for Ukraine.
But experts from the Institute for the Study of War thinktank said the indications are that the Kremlin was attempting to dictate the terms of any potential “peace” negotiations with Ukraine in advance of Trump’s inauguration.
“The manner in which the Kremlin is trying to set its terms for negotiations strongly signals that Russia’s objectives remain unchanged and still amount to full Ukrainian capitulation,” the group’s analysts said.
We’ll bring you all the latest updates throughout the day…
That’s all our coverage on the war in Ukraine for now – but we’ll be back tomorrow with all the latest.
Here’s a round-up of today’s headlines before we go:
Moscow signalling Putin’s intentions for Ukraine when Trump takes over, analysts say
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War thinktank have said there are indications the Kremlin is now attempting to dictate the terms of any potential “peace” negotiations with Ukraine in advance of Donald Trump’s inauguration in the US.
“The manner in which the Kremlin is trying to set its terms for negotiations strongly signals that Russia’s objectives remain unchanged and still amount to full Ukrainian capitulation,” the group’s analysts say.
“The Kremlin does not appear any more willing to make concessions to the incoming Trump administration than it was to the current administration.”
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov claimed yesterday that the start of Trump’s presidency would not fundamentally change the US position on Ukraine.
Russian forces break through to outskirts of northeastern city, says Ukrainian officials
Ukrainian officials have said a Russian assault group briefly broke through to the outskirts of Kupiansk for the first time since Moscow’s forces fled the area in 2022.
“They partially entered the suburbs, the industrial zone, and were destroyed by our troops… There were assault actions using heavy armoured vehicles, there were attempts to bring in infantry,” the city’s military administration chief said.
The city, now just 1.5 miles from the front line, is under constant shelling and the population has dwindled to 3,000 people who are being urged to evacuate, the official, Andriy Besedin, said.
Ukrainian commander nicknamed ‘Genius’ reveals most effective piece of Western equipment
Our chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay has been in eastern Ukraine, where he spoke to Ukrainian troops near the Russian border.
He spoke to one of the country’s top field commanders, Captain Shyrshyn, who showed him the fighting vehicles used by his unit, and warned that equipment was running low.
You can read his full report below…
Vladimir Putin has changed the way wounded soldiers will receive compensation, with some seeing their payments cut.
The Russian president signed a decree that classifies injuries into three categories – with each entitling the soldier to a different amount.
At the moment, injured troops can receive up to 3 million roubles (£23,779), but the severity of the injury does not play a factor.
Under the new rules, only those in the “severe” category will be entitled to as much, with those in the “minor” section given up to 10 million roubles (£7,926), and those classed as having “other minor injuries” given 100,000 roubles (£792).
The decree does not state how each injury is classified.
European foreign ministers are going to meet in Poland later this month to discuss the re-election of Donald Trump and the war in Ukraine, Reuters reports.
According to the news agency, citing two sources, it will see representatives of the governments of the UK, Poland, France, Germany, Italy and Ukraine meet on 19 November in Warsaw.
Much ink has been spilled over what a new Trump presidency may mean for the war in Ukraine.
His brand of “America first” politics is a marked departure from his predecessors.
That, combined with his recent picks for cabinet, has left many wondering what four more years may bring.
Hundreds of miles from the frontlines in Ukraine, the country’s soldiers are being trained to locate and disarm landmines.
The explosives litter huge swathes of the country, killing and maiming hundreds – including children.
At a camp of the Cypriot National Guard, the island turns its own experience at dealing with the issues toward helping Ukraine, with the aid of experts from across Europe.
Training lasts five weeks and also teaches Ukrainian soldiers how to deal with other explosive munitions like rockets, artillery shells, grenades and mortar shells.
“They’re trained on ordnance disposal using real explosives,” one officer said.
They added: “That will be the trainees’ primary task when they return.”
The tools they employ include metal detectors, prodders and feelers.
“Booby-trapped munitions are a widespread phenomenon in Ukraine,” the programme’s chief training officer said.
So far, almost 100 Ukrainian soldiers have undergone training.
According to the UN, some 399 people have been killed and 915 injured from landmines and other such munitions since 24 February 2022.
More than one in ten of those casualties have been children.
Alongside that, the economic impact is costing the Ukrainian economy billions as the explosives prevent the sewing of five million hectares of land.
Members of the 57th motorised brigade improve their tactical skills, training on an obstacle course in the Kharkiv region.
Ukraine has recently run into issues with its infantry, struggling to recruit as many soldiers as needed to meet the demands of the war.
It is not only fighting under increasingly difficult circumstances in its east, but also trying to maintain its incursion into the Kursk region.
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