The Trump administration is touting the likelihood of reaching trade agreements with several countries, but one of the biggest deals appears ever more distant as the U.S. trade war with China continues to escalate.
The White House clarified Thursday the 125% tariffs on Chinese imports announced Wednesday were on top of a previous 20%, adding up to a whopping levy of 145% against the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner. For context, the top two − Mexico and Canada − are facing hotly disputed 25% tariffs.
Financial markets reacted with pessimism, as the three main indexes closed down from 2.5% to 4.31% during the fifth losing session in the last six, interrupted only by Wednesday’s remarkable surge after President Donald Trump paused some tit-for-tat tariffs.
“We’ll see what happens with China,” Trump said at a Cabinet meeting Thursday. “We would love to be able to work a deal. They’ve really taken advantage of our country for a long period of time. They’ve ripped us off beyond anybody.”
National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said earlier in the day the U.S. has already received “serious” trade deal offers from almost 20 nations and that two deals are “almost closed” amid signs the global trade war sparked by Trump might be easing. Hassett also told CNBC a 10% universal baseline tariff rate is likely to stay in place for most countries as part of any negotiated trade agreement.
A day earlier, Trump announced a 90-day pause on U.S. levies for scores of nations that did not retaliate against the tariffs unveiled last week. The European Union responded by putting on hold for 90 days its first countermeasures against U.S. tariffs.
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Despite imposing a 25% tariff on some Mexican goods, Trump has had a cordial relationship so far with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico.
That didn’t stop Trump from accusing Mexico on Thursday evening of harming farmers in southern Texas by violating a decades-old water treaty, and threatening severe penalties if the situation doesn’t change.
“We will keep escalating consequences,” Trump posted on his social media site, “including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!”
Under a 1944 treaty, Mexico must send 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. from the Rio Grande every five years. An acre-foot of water is enough to fill about half an Olympic swimming pool.
The current five-year cycle is up in October, but Mexico has sent less than 30% of the required water, according to data from the International Boundary and Water Commission.
Mexico contends that a historic drought fueled by climate change makes it impossible to fulfill its water commitments, a scenario for which the treaty offers leniency, allowing the water debt to be rolled over to the next five year cycle.
Contributing: Reuters
The trade clash with China appeared to be ramping up. Trump on Wednesday raised the tariff on Chinese goods to 145%, the White House clarified Thursday after initially saying it was 125%. A 20% levy was applied in February, stemming from Trump accusing Beijing of allowing fentanyl produced in China to be transported to the U.S.
China struck back with an 84% tariff on U.S. goods that kicked in Thursday.
“The trade war is now turning into a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China,” Rabobank analysts said. “We could again be seeing escalation and de-escalation at the same time, pulling markets in different directions.”
Trump did not say when asked whether Chinese President Xi Jinping has been in touch with the U.S. to discuss trade policy.
“I don’t want to say who’s reached out,” Trump said. “I’ll just say that I think it’s going to work out, hopefully.”
Major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply Thursday, a day after the domestic markets saw a historic surge following Trump‘s 90-day pause on some of his most aggressive tariffs.
With the world’s two largest economies engaged in an escalating trade war, investors went on another selloff. The Dow fell by 2.50%, or 1,014.79 points, to 39,593.66. The S&P 500 dropped by 3.46%, or 188.85 points, to 5,268.05. And the Nasdaq ended down by 4.31%, or 737.66 points, to 16,387.31.
“The current situation is not only chaotic, it’s crazy,” ING Economist Carsten Brzeski said. “Don’t forget that we have been here before with announcements and then we get some pauses, only for the originally announced tariff to be reintroduced again.”
On Wednesday, the pause drove the S&P 500 more than 9% higher, its third-largest gain in a single day since World War II. The Dow posted its biggest percentage advance since March 2020, while the Nasdaq scored its biggest one-day gain since January 2001 and second-best day on record. About 30 billion shares changed hands, which was the highest in at least 18 years.
− Medora Lee
Trump said Thursday that there will be “a transition cost ” with his aggressive tariff policies as the markets plunged again one day after he paused some tariffs while ramping up levies on imports from China.
“There’ll be a transition cost and transition problems, but in the end, it’s going to be a beautiful thing,” Trump said at the beginning of a Cabinet meeting.
Despite the pause, Trump’s 10% baseline tariffs on most imports remain in effect. Trump also hiked China’s so-called “reciprocal” tariff to 125%, raising its total rate 145% when combined with previously imposed 20% duties.
Administration officials have said about 75 countries have contacted the U.S. seeking trade deals. “I’m not sure we could ever have enough time in the day to talk to all these countries,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.
Trump said he will revive the higher country-specific tariffs he paused Wednesday if the U.S. is unable to reach trade deals with those nations.
“If we can’t make the deal that we want to make, or we have to make, or that’s good for both parties − it’s got to be good for both parties − and then we go back to where we were,” Trump told reporters.
The Trump administration downplayed Thursday’s massive drop in the stock market, one day after stocks soared when Trump announced he’s pausing tit-for-tat tariffs on most countries.
“Up two, down one is not a bad ratio, or up 10, down five,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters during a Cabinet meeting, ignoring the four-day slump that preceded Wednesday’s rally.
Trump, known for being acutely aware of how the market performs, said he had not seen it Thursday.
Bessent said the administration will gain certainty on the tariffs as it negotiates trade deals with other countries over the next three months.
“But we had very good inflation numbers today,” he said. “Oil’s down. We had a successful bond market, so I don’t think you’re seeing anything unusual today.”
The timing of Trump’s pause of some country-specific tariffs on dozens of nations Wednesday struck some Democrats as more than a little curious. Less than four hours before the announcement, Trump had written, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT” on his social media site.
Democratic Sens. Adam Schiff of California and Ruben Gallego of Arizona said in a letter the sequence of events raised “grave legal and ethics concerns,” noting the posting propelled financial markets to huge gains and boosted the stock of carmaker Tesla, partly owned by Trump ally Elon Musk, by 18%.
“The president, his family, and his advisors are uniquely positioned to be privy and take advantage of non-public information to inform their investment decisions,” Schiff and Gallego wrote in the letter.
At Thursday’s Cabinet meeting, Trump brushed off a reporter’s question about the Democrats’ concerns. The White House denied any impropriety.
− Erin Mansfield
American consumers should brace for “more bad days in the stock market” and a “massive” increase in prices, not to mention the possibility of a recession, said Mark Zandi, chief economist for financial services company Moody’s Analytics. The pause in tariffs won’t pause big price increases for “everything from clothing to cars to cellphones,” he told USA TODAY. China is a key reason why.
China accounted for 16.5% of the $3.2 trillion worth of imports brought into the U.S. in 2022, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
“The tariff mix is actually worse,” Bloomberg LP’s chief economist Anna Wong said on the X social media platform. “China exports more consumer goods to (the) US than other countries, so boosting that relative to others will boost the hit to consumption goods.” Read more here.
− Bailey Schulz, Jessica Guynn
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Thursday that the White House is weighing potential aid packages for American farmers and egg producers to help mitigate damage done by tariffs − but she hopes they will not be necessary.
While farmers welcomed Trump’s pause on tariffs for many countries, the continued escalation of the duties with China is concerning to soybean farmers because China is a critical export market for U.S. soy, according to the American Soybean Association.
“We run the risk of immediate impacts this growing season, along with the impacts a prolonged trade war with China will inflict on our industry,” said Caleb Ragland, the association’s president and a Kentucky soybean farmer.
Rollins said it would take time to determine the tariffs’ implications for U.S. crops, “especially for our wheat, corn, soybean, etc., that they’re just in planting season right now.” She said a firm decision on the aid will be made toward late summer and early fall.
Trump “blinked” when he admitted the financial markets’ turmoil was a factor in putting a 90-day pause on tariffs, one economics expert believes.
“He’s trying to reframe this as part of ‘The Art of the Deal,’” said Peter Ricchiuti, a senior finance professor at Tulane University and founder of the Burkenroad Reports student stocks research program, referring to Trump’s 1987 book. “I don’t believe a pause was part of the president’s strategy. This was all his silly way of looking at tariffs as a balance of trade.”
With the major markets closing a fifth negative session in the last six Thursdays, there’s “a 90% chance” the U.S. will enter a recession because of Trump’s overuse of tariffs, Ricchiuti said, predicting the 90-day pause on some tariffs won’t result in a correction.
Ricchiuti said there’s always going to be some inequity when rich nations like the U.S. trade with others that are not as wealthy. “You don’t have to hurt another country to make yours stronger,” Ricchiuti said. “The president made it sound like this is a great issue we needed to fix, but there was really no need for it.”
− Terry Collins
Trump’s reversal on tariffs was encouraging but far from universal. A 10% blanket duty on almost all U.S. imports will remain in effect, the White House said, and it appeared the duties on autos, steel and aluminium would remain in place. The U.S. tariff pause also does not apply to duties paid by Canada and Mexico because their goods are still subject to 25% fentanyl-related tariffs.
The EU had been due to impose extra tariffs on U.S. imports including maize, wheat, motorcycles, poultry, fruit and clothing. Those are now suspended.
The three-month tariffs suspension announced Wednesday marks a dramatic retreat for Trump, who on Monday said he wasn’t interested in a pause and just hours before Wednesday’s announcement urged Americans to “BE COOL!” in a post on social media.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, explaining the sudden shift, told reporters the Trump administration has been “overwhelmed” by the more than 75 countries that have approached the U.S. seeking trade deals after the president first announced the sweeping tariffs last week. Trump, speaking to reporters late Wednesday, acknowledged the volatile stock markets and turmoil in the bond market played a role in his decision.
“I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line, they were getting yippy, a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid,” Trump said. “You have to have flexibility.”
Of the $3.2 trillion the U.S. imported in 2022, 16.5% of that came from China, making it America’s top supplier, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. China is also one of the USA’s top export destinations, falling behind Canada and Mexico with $150.4 billion of U.S. goods being bought by China in the same year.
Mechanical appliances, sound recorders and TV sets were the most commonly traded commodity sectors between China and the U.S. in 2022, according to a U.S. Department of Commerce Office of Industry and Security report. For the average consumer, some everyday goods are likely to get more expensive. Read more about what those items are.
− Kinsey Crowley
Trump loves to skewer his political opponents, but he had nothing but praise for Michigan’s Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer during a White House visit Wednesday. Whitmer, a potential presidential contender in 2028, was advocating for issues important to her state, including keeping an Air National Guard base open and an invasive species out of Lake Michigan. Trump said he supported the causes.
“She’s really been doing an excellent job,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Wednesday. Whitmer, however, then stood by awkwardly as Trump signed two presidential memoranda revoking security clearances for former Homeland Security officials, one who angered him for saying the 2020 election was secure and another who wrote a critical book about him.
Whitmer’s officer said she wasn’t aware she would be pulled into the signing event and that “her presence is not an endorsement of the actions taken or statements made at that event.”
− Zac Anderson
Correction territory is generally understood to mean a stock market indicator has dropped at least 10% from its recent market high. This is different from bear market territory, which refers to a stock market drop of 20% or more from a recent peak, or a closing high.
Every investment is susceptible to corrections. They can apply to individual stocks, bonds, or stock indexes such as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.
Several things can prompt a correction including a change in economic policy, newly released jobs or inflation data and company earnings reports.
− Rachel Barber
A recession is informally considered at least two straight quarters of declining economic output. But the technical definition is “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months,” according to the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research.
The measure is based on employment, income, consumer spending and industrial production, among other criteria. An economic tailspin is typically accompanied by hundreds of thousands or millions of net job losses.
Contributing: Reuters