Donald Trump has unveiled plans for sweeping new tariffs on trading partners. Don’t forget to submit your questions below for a live recording of the Trump 100 podcast on Friday – and listen to the latest episode below.
Thursday 13 February 2025 23:59, UK
That’s all for our live coverage of Trump’s 25th day in office.
If you’re just checking in, here is a recap of the key developments over the course of the day.
By Paul Kelso, business and economics correspondent
Taken at face value, Donald Trump’s embrace of reciprocal tariffs is a declaration of total trade war that would amount to perhaps the single biggest peacetime shock to global commerce.
In promising to levy import taxes on any nation that imposes tariffs or VAT on US exports, he is following through on a campaign promise to address a near trillion-dollar trade deficit – the difference between the value of America’s exports and its imports – that he believes amounts to a tax on American jobs.
In response, he wants to deploy tariffs as an “external revenue service”, simultaneously easing the US deficit and, so the theory goes, pricing out imports in favour of domestic production.
With a promise to reestablish industries, from chip production lost to Taiwan and car and pharmaceutical manufacturing to Europe, he is promising a country-by-country tailored assault on the status quo.
His primary targets appear to be the major trading partners with whom the trading deficit is greatest.
Mexico and Canada, the European Union, whose 10% tariff on US cars is a particular irritation, as well as the BRICS nations, Brazil, Russia, India (which impose 9% tariffs on US imports), China and South Africa.
What it means for the UK will not be certain until the details are revealed in April, but it is a blow to the emerging view in Whitehall that Britain might wriggle through the chaos relatively unscathed.
To begin with, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK – in a quirk of statistics, the UK thinks it has a surplus too – and Brexit has placed it outside the EU bloc with the ability, at least in theory, to be more agile.
The UK also imposes direct tariffs on very few US goods following a deal in 2021, brokered by then trade secretary Liz Truss, that removed tariffs on denim and motorcycles bound for Britain, and cashmere and Scotch whisky heading the other way.
But we do add VAT to imports, and Trump’s threat to treat sales tax as a tariff by another name will chill British exporters.
Analysts have estimated it could add 21% to the cost of exports, amounting to a £24bn blow to national income.
Pharmaceuticals, cars, chemicals, scientific instruments and the aerospace industry, the main components of our £182bn US export trade, will all be potentially affected, but the pain will certainly be shared.
Tariffs are paid by the importer, not the exporter, and even Trump accepts they will be inflationary.
Rising prices on Main Street could yet be the biggest brake on the president’s tariff plan.
By Sean Bell, military analyst
President Trump made clear that ending the war in Ukraine was an early priority for his presidency, but his proactive engagement with President Putin to commence peace talks has provoked a raft of concerns from Ukraine and NATO partners.
Although the war will ultimately be drawn to an end through diplomatic engagement and negotiation, it is not entirely clear what role the US President has at this stage.
After all, the war is between Ukraine and Russia and does not directly involve the US. And it is very unlikely that any deal “imposed” on Ukraine would be credible or enduring.
What is clear is that President Trump is taking a different approach to his predecessor. Ukrainian membership in NATO is no longer a viable option, and Trump has made clear that returning to the pre-2014 Ukrainian borders is “unrealistic”.
Although President Zelenskyy will be disappointed that NATO membership is off the table, in recent interviews he has hinted that ceding territory to Russia might be less important than ensuring the requisite security guarantees to ensure no future repeat of Russian aggression.
What is less clear is why Trump – a seasoned negotiator – would offer concessions to Putin ahead of any negotiations.
Many military analysts believe that Putin will only consider halting his illegal invasion once he has achieved his military objectives, and although progress on the battlefield is grinding, slow and highly attritional, Russia is still advancing and Ukraine is losing.
Why stop now unless he secures highly beneficial terms, which would be viewed as Western capitulation?
Not everything that President Trump says should be taken at face value. In the past few weeks he has threatened military action over the Panama Canal and Greenland, suggested that the US would take over the Gaza strip, and has now apparently started negotiations – autonomously – with Russia.
Behind the headline-grabbing rhetoric, there is usually a hidden agenda.
President Trump has made clear – for many years – that he believes that NATO members should be shouldering a greater share of the collective defence burden.
Indeed, his new defense secretary Pete Hegseth quoted former US president Eisenhower who warned NATO members not “to make a sucker out of Uncle Sam”.
The US allocates over 3% GDP on defence, and its total spend exceeds the defence spending of the rest of NATO combined – by some margin.
Trump has long maintained that if NATO members are to enjoy the security benefits of membership, then they should pay their way, but a third of NATO members still fail to meet their agreed obligation to spend 2% of GDP on defence.
It is quite possible that Trump is using the Ukrainian war to focus European minds on the need to increase their collective defence spending.
By signalling that the US is focused on China, and that issues on the European continent should be handled locally, Trump is making clear that the longer-term viability of NATO is in Europe’s hands.
Although Trump has suggested 5% GDP is a more realistic target for defence spending, the defence secretary would not be drawn on whether that was also a target for the US.
What appears more likely is that – in typical Trump style – he is making headlines based on an unachievable “stretch” target, in the expectation that 3% appears more pragmatic.
Whether Trump is able to compel NATO members to meet their obligations or leave the protective umbrella of NATO remains to be seen, but it is clear that many European leaders are watching developments extremely closely.
Donald Trump has previously spoken at length about what he expects Ukraine to give up in negotiations with Russia to end the war.
He said NATO membership was impractical and Ukraine would likely not get all of its occupied land back.
Now, at a news conference with the Indian prime minister, a reporter asks Trump what he thinks Russia should give up in return.
“Russia has gotten themselves into something that I think they wish they didn’t,” Trump says.
“If I were president it would not have happened, absolutely would not have happened, and it didn’t happen for four years.
“If you look at what has taken place under President Bush, they lost a lot under President Obama, they lost Crimea, under Biden it looks like they could lose the whole thing, under Trump they lost nothing, Ukraine lost nothing.”
He then repeats a Kremlin narrative regularly pushed by Russian officials without evidence: “Russia has taken over a pretty big chunk of territory and they have also said from day one, long before Putin, they said they cannot have Ukraine be in NATO. I actually think that was the thing that caused the start of the war.”
Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are taking questions at a joint news conference.
Trump picks a reporter who asks a softball question, praising Trump for “peace through strength” and calling Joe Biden incompetent and weak, before asking Modi how much more confident he is in president Trump than his predecessor.
Trump decides to take the question, using it as an opportunity to criticise the last administration.
On tariffs, Trump says India has been “very strong on tariffs” and “it’s very hard to sell into India”.
“Whatever India charges, we’re charging them,” Trump says.
“I think that’s fair for the people of the United States.”
Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are holding a joint news conference.
The US president complains about Indian tariffs, and says the pair will begin negotiations to reduce them.
“We want a certain level playing field, which we think we’re entitled to.”
He says the two nations will join forces to ensure that AI is developed “by two of the most advanced nations, intellectually, and otherwise technologically”.
The pair agreed to create a trade route from India through Israel and Italy to the US, he says.
Modi says his vision for India is to “Make India Great Again”.
“When it’s MAGA plus MIGA, it becomes mega: A mega partnership for prosperity.”
Indian and US teams are working on a trade agreement, he says.
Modi says the US and India will target $500bn in bilateral trade by 2030.
Ukraine does not expect to hold talks with Russia in Munich tomorrow, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s communications adviser says.
The United States, Europe and Ukraine need a common position before talks with Moscow, Dmytro Lytvyn said.
Donald Trump said earlier that US and Russian officials would meet in Munich and that Ukraine was also invited.
The UK could be hit with tariffs as high as 24% if Donald Trump follows through on his threats to treat VAT as a tariff, according to an economist.
Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said Britain would be the fourth hardest-hit, following India (29%), Brazil (28%) and the EU (25%).
This is based on VAT rates combined with existing tariffs, but the Trump administration also intends to take into account regulations, government subsidies, digital services taxation policies and exchange rate policies.
“Most people would consider VAT to be a non-discriminatory tax, since it is also applied to domestically-produced goods making a level playing field,” said Ashworth.
“But his adviser Peter Navarro has been pushing the line since Trump’s first term that, since the US only applies a much lower average sales tax at the state level, this is a form of discriminatory tariff.”
Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have met in the Oval Office.
“They’re going to be purchasing a lot of our oil and gas,” said Trump.
“We’re going to make some wonderful trade deals for India and for the US.”
For his part, Modi said he deeply appreciated that Trump “keeps the national interest supreme”.
“And like him, I also keep the national interest of India at the top of everything else.”
One of Donald Trump’s most controversial cabinet nominations, Robert F Kennedy Jr, has been sworn in as health secretary.
In remarks leading up to the swearing-in, Trump praised Kennedy, saying that he would restore Americans’ trust.
Kennedy is a prominent vaccine sceptic who has been criticised for “trafficking dangerous conspiracy theories” (see our 6.28pm post).
During the pandemic, he devoted much of his time to a non-profit organisation that sued vaccine makers and harnessed social media campaigns to erode trust in vaccines.
Trump said: “He’s absolutely committed to getting dangerous chemicals out of our environment and out of our food supply, and getting the American people the facts and the answers that we deserve after years in which our public health system has squandered the trust of our citizens.
“It was a very tough, it was a very nasty group of people that were after him, but he was tougher and he was smarter than they are, and that’s why he’s here today.”
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