Stock markets are braced for more volatility as the US president prepares to unveil a swathe of new levies on imports tomorrow. Trump has suggested to reporters that “all countries” could expect to be hit. Listen to Trump 100 while you scroll.
Tuesday 1 April 2025 14:57, UK
Donald Trump’s impending tariffs could “knock out” the UK’s government’s financial headroom if they were maintained for five years, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned.
Professor David Miles, a member of the OBR, warned that most possible outcomes of Trump’s proposals were likely to be “negative”.
However, he also said that a “very limited” tariff war could be “mildly positive” for the UK – if Britain stayed out of it.
Taking questions from the Treasury Committee, Miles said: “If tariffs at 20% or 25% were put on the UK and maintained for five years, our assessment of what that does is that it will knock out all the headroom that the government currently has.”
He said that, had the OBR made that a central forecast in its documents, and “had the government not changed policy at all, knowing that we were going to take that as our central forecast, then the headroom would have pretty much all gone”.
In its forecast, which accompanied last week’s spring statement, the OBR warned that the impact of imposing reciprocal tariffs on the US would be worse for the UK than allowing the levies to go ahead unimpeded.
It said the most “severe” scenario, in which the UK and other nations retaliated to the imposition of tariffs, would see GDP 0.6% lower than forecast this year and 1% lower next year.
This scenario would also “almost entirely eliminate” the chancellor’s £9.9bn headroom against her fiscal rules, potentially forcing her to implement further spending cuts or tax rises.
An alternative scenario, in which the UK did not retaliate, would see a smaller reduction in growth, with GDP 0.4% lower than expected this year and 0.6% lower next year.
Most of our reporting today has been focused on the looming taxes on goods Donald Trump is expected to unveil tomorrow.
Ultimately, the intent is to protect US manufacturing and bolster jobs by making foreign-made products less attractive.
However, there is a knock-on effect: to compensate, companies will likely put up their prices, leaving customers having to pay more for goods.
So what are tariffs, what is in the pipeline – and what could all this mean for the UK?
You can read more here…
Away from Trump’s looming new import taxes, talks are set to take place between Denmark and the US this week, the Financial Times reports.
Danish foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen is reportedly set to meet his American counterpart Marco Rubio in the first high-level discussions between the two nations since the US president vowed to “take control” of Greenland.
The meeting will take place on the sidelines of a gathering of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, which is due to begin on Thursday, according to the newspaper.
However, sources warned the talks could be cancelled because of tense relations between Copenhagen and Washington.
For context: The prospect of talks comes amid simmering tension between the two nations over the US’s interest in taking control of Greenland, which is a huge, resource-rich island and a self-governing territory of Denmark – a NATO ally of the US.
Trump has said he wants to annex the territory, claiming the US needs it for national security purposes.
Meanwhile, a White House official has said Greenland’s supply of rare earth minerals could power the next generation of the US economy.
But Greenland’s residents and politicians have reacted with anger to Trump’s proposals, with Danish leaders also criticising them.
There has been widespread international condemnation of Trump’s tariffs, especially from the worst-affected countries such as Mexico and Canada.
Some have imposed, or threatened to impose, retaliatory tariffs.
They include China, which has already hit back with levies on a range of US goods, including a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas products, a 10% tariff on US crude oil and tariffs of up to 15% on US farm exports.
Canada also imposed tariffs on US products, including a 25% reciprocal tax on US steel and aluminium products and tariffs worth an estimated C$29.8bn (£16bn) on products including orange juice, peanut butter, alcohol, coffee and clothing.
The European Union has said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, but when they will come into force is not yet known.
The European Commission initially threatened to impose “countermeasures” affecting €26bn (£21.9bn) of US goods from 1 April, but later delayed the move until the middle of April.
The bloc said the delay was because it wanted “additional time for discussions” with the US after Trump threatened a 200% tariff on EU alcohol – including wine and champagne – if the bloc imposed duties on US whiskey.
Any tariffs imposed by the bloc would not only affect US steel and aluminium products, but also textiles, home appliances, agricultural goods and whiskey.
Plans to introduce tariffs of around 20% on most US imports have been drawn up by the White House, the Washington Post reports.
As the world waits for details of what the US president will announce tomorrow, sources told the newspaper that aides had floated the idea of a flat rate for imports from “virtually every country”.
But they also stressed it was just one of several options being considered and that Trump could change his mind.
It comes after the US president warned late on Sunday that “all countries” might be hit by tariffs.
His administration is also reportedly considering using the trillions of dollars it expects in new revenue from the tariffs to fund a tax dividend or refund.
However, White House advisers say no final decisions have been made.
The Washington Post said the impact of 20% tariffs on most US imports would “send shock waves through the stock market and global economy”.
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s, told the newspaper that, as a result, the US economy would “almost immediately tumble into a recession that would last for more than a year”, sending the unemployment rate to more than 7%.
He said that was a worst-case scenario based on the assumption that the tariffs would be imposed this quarter and trigger retaliatory levies from the US’s trading partners.
Yesterday, the White House said any country that had treated Americans unfairly should expect to be on the receiving end of tariffs.
Sir Keir Starmer has said it is likely that Donald Trump’s tariffs will hit the UK but has promised to respond in the “national interest”.
The prime minister suggested that retaliatory tariffs were possible but stressed he did not want to see a trade war.
“The likelihood is there will be tariffs. Nobody welcomes that,” he told Sky’s Beth Rigby.
“We are obviously working with the sectors most impacted at pace on that. Nobody wants to see a trade war but I have to act in the national interests.”
He added that “all options remain on the table”.
Asked if he had been “played” by Trump amid efforts to build a good relationship, he said: “The US is our closest ally.
“Our defence, our security, our intelligence are bound up in a way that no two other countries are.
“So it’s obviously in our national interest to have a close working relationship with the US, which we’ve had for decades, and I want to ensure we have for decades to come.”
Trump has already announced a 25% tax will be introduced on all cars imported to the US, a measure which will be a blow to the UK’s automotive industry.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds also told Sky’s Wilfred Frost he would “expect Trump’s tariffs to affect every country” and then “individual countries will be able to negotiate a resolution for themselves”.
Asked if he was hopeful tariffs will be reversed in weeks or months, he said: “I am. That would be my objective. I can’t give a timescale on that.”
And on the topic of retaliatory tariffs, he added: “I think we have to have all options open.”
President Trump has alluded to wanting three terms as president, despite the US constitution prohibiting it.
When asked whether he had been presented with plans to allow him to seek a third term, Trump said there were “methods which you could do it”.
On Day 72 of his administration, US correspondents Mark Stone and Martha Kelner discuss the plausibility of this.
Plus, it’s a big week for Trump’s new round of tariffs – what could they look like? Mark has been to rural West Virginia to hear from business leaders and workers about what they think the impact could be.
If you’ve got a question you’d like James, Martha, and Mark to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.
In March, Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars.
Signing an executive order, the US president said the tax would kick in on 2 April.
The move will have a knock-on effect, with companies putting their prices up to try and compensate for the tariffs.
Here, Sky’s economics and data editor Ed Conway explains in more detail about the impact of the tariffs…
As Donald Trump prepares to unveil a swathe of tariffs on 2 April – a day he has dubbed “liberation day” – stock markets are braced for more volatility.
Trump could unveil the reciprocal tariffs on countries deemed to be giving the US a bad deal on trade – but just how far the president will go is not yet clear.
He has said additional levies were coming on lumber and semiconductor chips, and has previously promised tariffs on pharmaceutical products.
He has also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on any country that buys Venezuelan oil.
The latest tariff on cars is also due to come into force on 2 April.
Speaking from Air Force One late on Sunday, the US president rubbished claims he was planning to target between 10 and 15 countries.
He told a reporter: “Who told you 10-15 countries? You didn’t hear it from me.”
When pressed on how many nations he was planning to hit, he said: “You’d start with all countries, let’s see what happens.”
We’re back with our coverage of all the very latest from the US.
With just one day to go until Donald Trump’s planned announcement of more tariffs in what he calls “liberation day”, stock markets have been plummeting.
The extent of potential tariffs and countries affected remains unclear, with Trump at times sending mixed messages.
But he has said “all countries” could expect to be hit by tariffs.
The tariffs could have a huge impact on the UK’s car industry, including on manufacturers such as Jaguar Land Rover, Aston Martin and Rolls-Royce.
But the UK government has signalled it will not retaliate with a reciprocal tariff.
Here are the other key lines from the last 24 hours:
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