WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump says he’s looking for an off-ramp from a potential conflict with Iran – but he hasn’t heard the “secret words” from the adversarial nation with whom the United States is involved in tense nuclear negotiations.
Trump in his State of the Union address on Feb. 24 said he wants Iran to declare that it “will never have a nuclear weapon.” Even after a U.S. operation last summer badly damaged or destroyed Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump said the country is pursuing “sinister ambitions.”
U.S. fighter jets and aircraft carriers have been deployed to the region as Trump has threatened to attack. He warned Feb. 19 that “really bad things will happen” if Iran does not make a deal in 10 to 15 days to permanently end its nuclear program.
“Look, it’d be wonderful if they’d negotiate, really in good conscience, good faith and conscience, but they are not getting there. So far… they are not getting there,” Trump told reporters on Feb. 27, as he departed the White House on a trip to Texas.
The president said that he was not happy with the way Iran has been negotiating but had not made a final decision about whether to conduct a military strike, which may or may not lead to Iran’s supreme leader being toppled, and U.S. allies in the region fear could escalate into a wider war.
That begs the question: What does the United States want from Iran?
“It’s a war of choice right now,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator and adviser to Republican and Democratic secretaries of state. “The president has not laid out any clear set of objectives.”
Diplomatic talks are set to resume next week between the United States and Iran amid growing signs of a military confrontation between the two countries that analysts warn could spread and engulf the Middle East.
The U.S. State Department said Feb. 27 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would travel to Israel early next week to discuss Iran and other regional issues.
Negotiators for both countries are also expected to meet again next week after a third round of indirect talks ended Feb. 26 without a deal that could avert potential U.S. strikes. Oman, acting as mediator, said progress had been made, but heading into the weekend, there were no signs of an immediate breakthrough.
“The administration is clearly pursuing both options and very much, of course, is keeping military on the table and may indeed be pursuing imminent strikes, but is also signaling a desire to find a diplomatic solution if they can,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Iran’s nuclear program has been at the center of the discussions. Trump says Iran must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran says it’s not and is enriching uranium for civilian purposes.
The U.S. and Israel, which for decades have accused Iran of secretly trying to develop a nuclear weapon, bombed three Iranian nuclear sites last June. Trump said at the time that the attacks obliterated Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities, but a later U.S. assessment determined that only one of the three sites was destroyed.
In the current negotiations, the U.S. has demanded that Iran end its uranium enrichment program. The demand has been a key point of contention, with Iran saying it has a right to enrich uranium on its own soil for non-weaponry use such as energy production.
Trump insists Iran should not be allowed to enrich any uranium at all.
“I say no enrichment,” he said during a stop at a Texas oil refinery on Feb. 27. “Not 20%, 30% – they always want 20%, 30%. They want it for civil. I think it’s uncivil.”
Miller said he thinks that Trump is looking for Iran to agree to inspections by an independent entity, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency, and constraints that would make it impossible for the Iranians to enrich enough uranium, in a transparent way, to produce enough fissile material to make a nuclear weapon.
But, he said, “It appears as if, even as they’ve committed themselves to negotiations next week, including technical talks with the IAEA, that in his own mind, he needs to send them a message or to make sure that the world understands that he’s not joking, that he’s serious.”
The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. is demanding Iran destroy its the three main nuclear sites – at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – and deliver all of its remaining enriched uranium to the United States. Iranian officials have objected to these demands.
The United States is also insisting that any nuclear deal between the two countries remain permanent instead of including a future ending date, or sunset clause. The Trump administration argues that would make an agreement more ironclad than the deal negotiated a decade ago under then-President Barack Obama that Trump withdrew from during his first term.
That deal, which required Iran to limit its nuclear program by, among other things, cutting enrichment levels and reducing centrifuges, took effect in 2016 and was due to expire 10 years after it was adopted.
The United States is also demanding that Iran restricts its ballistic missile program. Trump warned in his State of the Union address on Feb. 24 that Iran would soon be capable of building a missile that could strike the United States.
Experts have cast doubt on this argument, and it is not backed up by U.S. intelligence reports, according to Reuters.
Three sources familiar with the assessments told the news agency that Trump’s claims appear to be exaggerated, casting doubt on part of his case for a possible attack on Iran.
“It’s not so easy to build a ballistic missile that’s going to reach the United States, when we’ve done so much damage to their program until now,” said Daniel Kurtzer, who was the U.S. ambassador to Israel during George W. Bush’s administration. He also served as U.S. ambassador to Egypt under former President Bill Clinton.
Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, and its missiles are able to strike Israel, U.S. bases in the region and parts of Europe. It also has developed so-called space-launch vehicles that have put satellites into orbit and that experts say could be modified into intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
The Trump administration has said it wants Tehran ends its support for proxy regional groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, and pledge not to use violence against protesters.
Iran has built a network of the groups that it uses to wield influence across the Middle East. Though the groups operate with some autonomy, Iran has provided them with financial support, weaponry such as drones, missiles, and training and intelligence.
The groups have essentially become a “shadow army” for Iran, carrying out attacks on Israel, U.S. troops serving in the Middle East and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The United States has designated many of them as terrorist organizations.
But since the Israeli attacks last summer, Kurtzer, the former ambassador, said proxy activity had died down.
“It would be nice to get some kind of a declaration or commitment,” he said. “But in practical terms, the proxies are not so significant anymore.”
Contributing: Reuters
Michael Collins writes about the intersection of politics and culture. A veteran reporter, he has covered the White House and Congress. Follow him on X: @mcollinsNEWS
Francesca Chambers is a White House correspondent for USA TODAY covering foreign policy. Follow her on X: fran_chambers