Brazil picks its president today, and Polymarket traders make Flávio Bolsonaro an 80% favorite over Lula. The more interesting question is the margin: the final polls point to a close race, and the crowd is split on how close. Elsewhere, the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by January fell 10 points overnight.
Brazil votes today, and polls close at 4 p.m. ET, when the electoral court starts publishing results. Polymarket's winner market, with $196.7 million traded, prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 80% (-400) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 21% (+376). The margin market has $6.5 million traded and splits the Bolsonaro side in two:
The final polls, gathered by The Rio Times on Saturday, describe a tight race. Bolsonaro leads in seven of the last nine, by 1 to 4 points of valid votes. Datafolha has a 50-50 tie, and Vox Brasil is the only one with Lula ahead, at 50.6% to 49.4%. The Rio Times' average across 20 pollsters is 51.0% to 49.0%, a 2-point margin. In the first round on Oct. 4, Bolsonaro finished with 47.03% against Lula's 45.16%.
No final poll shows a Bolsonaro win by 4 points or more. The biggest lead in the batch is Real Time Big Data's 52% to 48%, which sits right on the line.
The pick: Bolsonaro by less than 4%, at 40% (+150). The 4-8% bracket at 38% needs the polls to miss by a couple of points in Bolsonaro's favor, and nothing in the final batch points that way. Every poll puts the race inside the margin of error, and a close Bolsonaro win is the single likeliest result. This bracket should be closer to 50%.
Make Your Brazil Election Prediction On Polymarket
These are the largest changes over 24 hours, from 12:09 a.m. ET Saturday to 12:10 a.m. ET Sunday.
Crypto kept sliding. Investing.com reports Bitcoin hit $79,146 on Saturday, its weakest level in more than a month, before recovering to about $80,900 early Sunday. It tied the drop to more than $810 million in liquidations over 24 hours, thin weekend trading and nerves ahead of the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting. The Machado market fell 10 points with no news found to explain it. On Oct. 22, Sen. Rick Scott offered to go to Venezuela with her, but no return date has been announced.
The pick: No on a Tesla-SpaceX merger being announced by Dec. 31, 2026, at 84% (-525). Elon Musk confirmed on Oct. 20 that both companies have formed committees of independent directors to explore a deal, according to Axios. He also said calling a deal certain would be "overstating it," gave no timeline and noted he is excluded from the talks as "a conflicted party." Committees that started work last week still have to hire advisers, value two very large companies and agree terms, and getting all of that done inside about 10 weeks is a stretch. Even at 16%, Yes is priced too high.
Trade The Biggest Movers On Polymarket
The Brewers came from 4-0 down to beat the Rays 5-4 in Game 2 on Saturday and lead the World Series 2-0. Game 3 is Monday at 8 p.m. ET in St. Petersburg. BetRivers and Fanatics both have Milwaukee at -769 to win the series, but the feed has no Polymarket price for the series winner. So this section looks at the MVP market, which Polymarket and Fanatics both price.
The biggest disagreement is Brice Turang: the crowd gives him 8.8%, almost twice Fanatics' 4.8%. Polymarket is also higher on Jackson Chourio, at 19.9% against 16.7%. The crowd is a little lower on the favorite, William Contreras, at 30.6% against Fanatics' 33.3%.
The pick: Contreras at +227 on Polymarket. With the series price at -769, Milwaukee is close to a 90% shot, and the MVP almost always comes from the winning side. MLB.com has Contreras tied for the series lead with four hits. In Game 1 he reached base three times, drove in a run and threw out two base stealers, and in Game 2 he had two more hits and made a key tag at home. The crowd's price is longer than Fanatics', and a catcher who is doing it at the plate and behind it deserves to be closer to 35%.
Bitcoin hitting $87,500 before October ends is 11% (+809). From about $80,900 early Sunday, that takes a gain of roughly 8% in six days, and the coin was at a one-month low on Saturday after a wave of forced selling. The one real catalyst is the Fed decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28, but Polymarket makes "no change" a 96% favorite, so a surprise there is unlikely. At 11%, this is priced about right to a little rich, and there is no value in Yes.
Think the crowd has one of these wrong? Sign up on Polymarket and make your own prediction.
Polymarket is not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, and OH.
Prices as of 12:10 a.m. ET on Oct. 25, 2026. Polymarket prices are crowd probabilities and carry no bookmaker margin.
Betting Options92
Product Features89.72
Bonuses & promotions85.25
Reliability & Trust88.8
Payments82.57
Player Experience89.53
Betting Options100
Product Features97.72
Bonuses & promotions86.25
Reliability & Trust92.86
Payments86.57
Player Experience88.53
Betting Options100
Product Features90.72
Bonuses & promotions78.25
Reliability & Trust95.8
Payments76.57
Player Experience88.53
Betting Options100
Product Features90.72
Bonuses & promotions89
Reliability & Trust91.86
Payments80.57
Player Experience89.53
Betting Options100
Product Features97.72
Bonuses & promotions96.25
Reliability & Trust92.86
Payments86.57
Player Experience88.53
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