Bitcoin is stuck near $80,000 with five days left in October and a Fed decision on Wednesday, and Polymarket traders can’t decide which way it breaks. The crowd’s October price targets fell hard overnight. Ethereum fell further, Sweden reaches another deadline in its search for a government, and the World Series MVP market has moved away from the sportsbooks.
Polymarket's October Bitcoin market has $11.3 million traded, and its two closest lines are almost a coin flip. A dip to $77,500 before the month ends is 50% (+100). A run to $82,500 is 46% (+117). The wider lines are a dip to $75,000 at 21% (+376) and a run to $85,000 at 16% (+525).
Bitcoin traded at about $80,029 early Monday, according to Crypto Times, citing CoinGecko. That puts the $77,500 line about 3.2% below the price and the $82,500 line about 3.1% above it. The 24-hour low was about $79,400. Phemex News notes that is only $100 above Saturday's low, so the coin has now tested the same level twice in three days. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had a record one-day net outflow of $635.49 million on Oct. 22, per Phemex.
The catalyst is Wednesday. The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET on Oct. 28, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. Polymarket makes no change a 94% favorite, but a December hike is 77%. Anything hawkish from Warsh would hit risk assets in the last three days of the month.
The pick: Yes on Bitcoin dipping to $77,500 in October, at 50% (+100). Both targets are about the same distance away, so the question is which way the coin is moving, and the recent signals point down: two tests of $79,400 in three days, record ETF outflows and a Fed that the crowd expects to hike again. This should be closer to 55% to 60%.
These are the largest changes over 24 hours, from 12:10 a.m. ET Sunday to 12:11 a.m. ET Monday.
Crypto filled the top of the board for a third straight day. Ethereum is the weaker of the two: it traded at about $2,320 early Monday, down about 4.3% over the week, per Crypto Times. The report points to about $220.7 million in net outflows from US spot Ether ETFs in the week of Oct. 19-23, citing Farside Investors, and a delay to the Glamsterdam upgrade. Callum Turner jumped 11 points in the Bond market, and no news was found to explain it.
The pick: Ulf Kristersson as Sweden's next prime minister, at 25% (+298). Parliament rejected Magdalena Andersson on Oct. 15 by 248 votes to 99. On Oct. 19, Speaker Andreas Norlén asked Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist to explore a centrist government, and she reports back today. The Local reports that her model would include the Social Democrats, Centre, Greens, Christian Democrats and Liberals. The last two governed with Kristersson. Andersson at 69% (-223) assumes they switch sides, and neither has done so yet. Until they do, a 248-99 defeat is the clearest evidence in this market, and Kristersson is the value at nearly 4-to-1.
The Brewers lead the Rays 2-0 after two one-run wins, 3-2 and 5-4. Game 3 is tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, with Robert Gasser starting for Milwaukee against Freddy Peralta. BetRivers and Fanatics both have the Brewers at -769 to win the series, but Polymarket has no series-winner price in the feed. MVP is the market both sides price.
The crowd has flipped on the favorite. A day ago Polymarket had William Contreras at 30.6%, below Fanatics. Now it has him at 37% against Fanatics' 31.3%, after he drove in the first Milwaukee run in Game 2. Elsewhere the crowd is longer than the book on almost everyone, most of all on Brice Turang (4.6% against 5.9%) and Jacob Misiorowski (5.4% against 7.1%).
The pick: Jackson Chourio at +475 on Polymarket, the best price for him on the board. Milwaukee's five Game 2 runs were produced by five different Brewers, including Sal Frelick's tying homer and Cooper Pratt's go-ahead single, per MLB.com. That kind of spread-out offense is a reason not to pay 37% for any one player. Chourio singled and scored in the first inning of Game 2, and with Milwaukee near a 90% shot at the title, 17.4% is a fair price for a second-favorite with upside.
The US announcing an end to its naval blockade of Iran by Oct. 31 is 7% (+1329), in a market with $42.7 million traded. There is a live offer on the table: Iran's envoy to Pakistan said on Saturday that Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifted the blockade, according to Iran International. But an outlet tied to the Revolutionary Guards rejected that trade, Iranian officials deny that real nuclear talks are under way, and President Trump has floated new strikes. Too many pieces have to move in five days. At 7%, this is priced about right, and there is no value in Yes.
Think the crowd has one of these wrong? Sign up on Polymarket and make your own prediction.
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Prices as of 12:11 a.m. ET on Oct. 26, 2026. Polymarket prices are crowd probabilities and carry no bookmaker margin.
Betting Options92
Product Features89.72
Bonuses & promotions85.25
Reliability & Trust88.8
Payments82.57
Player Experience89.53
Betting Options100
Product Features97.72
Bonuses & promotions86.25
Reliability & Trust92.86
Payments86.57
Player Experience88.53
Betting Options100
Product Features90.72
Bonuses & promotions78.25
Reliability & Trust95.8
Payments76.57
Player Experience88.53
Betting Options100
Product Features90.72
Bonuses & promotions89
Reliability & Trust91.86
Payments80.57
Player Experience89.53
Betting Options100
Product Features97.72
Bonuses & promotions96.25
Reliability & Trust92.86
Payments86.57
Player Experience88.53
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